This article is part of our FantasyDraft PGA series.
DEAN & DELUCA Invitational
Fort Worth, TX
Colonial CC - Par 70, 7,209 yards
Field - 128 Entrants
Winner's Share - $1.2 million
Conquering Colonial
Much like TPC Four Seasons - Las Colinas last week, Colonial's 7,209-yard, par-70 structure places an emphasis on par-four scoring, as the course contains just two par-fives. In turn, this layout encourages players to be at their best on approach shots from 150-200 yards, and a high success rate with mid-irons generally results in decent par-four numbers for those with average length off the tee. There's a very low chance of rain until later in the weekend in Fort Worth, but the Texas winds are expected to begin swirling Thursday afternoon and remain in the upper-teens (MPH) before potentially calming Sunday. With temperatures reaching into the upper-90s Friday and Saturday, the morning tee-time waves could post lower scoring averages. Given the dry forecast, long-hitters won't have as much of an advantage off the tee, and those with accuracy and precision figure to benefit from a little extra runout in the fairways.
Past Champions
2016 - Jordan Spieth
2015 - Chris Kirk
2014 - Adam Scott
2013 - Boo Weekley
2012 - Zach Johnson
2011 - David Toms
2010 - Zach Johnson
FantasyDraft Value Picks - based on $100,000 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Jon Rahm - $18,400
Paul Casey - $16,700
Jason Dufner - $16,700
Matt Kuchar - $16,700
Cash-game Target: Having missed just one cut since May of 2016, Dufner has become one of the most reliable cash-game plays on Tour. Further aiding his case, he has made five consecutive cuts at Colonial while finishing runner-up twice. He's top-40 on Tour in terms of SG: off-the-tee, SG: tee-to-green, and SG: putting, a combination that should translate to success once again in Fort Worth. Despite a somewhat inflated price due to a weaker field, it's tough to find a case against Dufner here, pairing his ball-striking abilities with a recent form that includes four top-15s in six events.
GPP Weapon: It's tough to comfortably fit anyone in the $18,000-plus range into a cash-game lineup, but having a few max-priced Rahm shares in large-scale tournament formats could be a valuable play this week. Based on FantasyDraft scoring he averages nearly 10 more FPPG than the third-best player in the field, and he has notched at least 150 points in five events this season. Ranking outside of the top 100 in terms of driving accuracy could be a turnoff for gamers at a course like Colonial, but he will be hitting plenty of irons and woods off the tee this week. His ball striking has otherwise been second only to Dustin Johnson, and the Spaniard is currently No. 2 on Tour in SG: tee-to-green. In order to keep Rahm's GPP ownership at a moderate level, Jordan Spieth will need to garner enough interest as the reigning champion at a lower price, despite his shaky recent form.
Second-Level Studs
Bud Cauley - $16,400
Zach Johnson - $16,200
Ryan Palmer - $16,200
Adam Hadwin - $15,800
Cash-game Target: Putting woes could keep him from the winner's circle, but Palmer is a safe bet to play well at his home course this week. The Colonial CC member has finished top-15 at the event in four of the past five years, notching three top-fives in that same stretch. He's 10th on Tour in SG: tee-to-green, hitting just of 67% of his greens in regulation. Palmer missed the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship, but owns four top-30s in his last five starts.
GPP Weapon: Having won the Valspar Championship in early March, Hadwin isn't necessarily due for a victory, but his game certainly fits Colonial. He's 21st on Tour in average proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards out and also ranks inside the top 30 in terms of SG: putting, SG: approach-the-green, and SG: tee-to-green. Hadwin has finished T22-T5 in his two appearances at the event, and his recent form includes 14 straight cuts made. He seems slightly under-priced for whatever reason, so nabbing him here provides solid value as he owns a promising chance at a top-five finish.
Mid-Tier Glue Guys
Chris Kirk - $15,500
Kyle Stanley - $15,200
Sung Kang - $15,000
Lucas Glover - $14,400
Cash-game Target: With just one missed cut in his last 12 events, Stanley's ball striking has bumped him inside the top 40 of the FedExCup standings. He ranks top-six on Tour in SG: off-the-tee, SG: approach-the-green, and SG: tee-to-green while placing second in terms of GIR percentage at 73.08%. Coming off a T4 at THE PLAYERS Championship, Stanley's irons are good enough to carry him to at least a top-20 this week in Texas.
GPP Weapon: Missing the cut at Colonial in three of his past four attempts at the event will hopefully shy gamers away from Glover, but he's now 11th on Tour in both SG: off-the-tee and SG: tee-to-green. The 37-year-old also ranks fifth in GIR percentage, second in par-four scoring, and 18th in par-four birdie-or-better percentage. These stats make for a tasty recipe, and a T6 during his previous start at THE PLAYERS Championship doesn't hurt his case either.
Hidden Gems
Jonas Blixt - $12,800
Blayne Barber - $12,700
JT Poston - $12,600
Inside Scoop: Blixt placed T10-T11 at Colonial in 2012 and 2013, and he's currently top-25 on Tour in SG: putting. Barber has been an even better putter than Blixt, ranking 12th in SG: putting this season. He also finished top-35 in his debut here last year. Poston is 40th in average proximity to the hole on approaches from 150-175 yards, 16th from 175-200, and 25th in par-three birdie-or-better percentage. He's never played at this event, but recently put together a stretch of eight consecutive made cuts from mid-February through early May.
