This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
PGA Championship
Course: Valhalla Golf Club (7,609 yards, par 71)
Purse: $17,500,000
Winner: $3,150,000 and 750 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The strongest field in golf belongs to the PGA Championship. There was once a debate with THE PLAYERS Championship, but with LIV Golf players not being eligible to play TPC Sawgrass anymore, the PGA Championship rightfully holds that title of best field even with 20 PGA Professionals teeing it up. Every now and then we see one or two of them make the cut, but last year at Oak Hill we saw perhaps the story of the week in Michael Block make an ace on 15 and then pull off a miracle up-and-down at 18 to secure a top-15 finish and a birth in this year's PGA Championship at Valhalla. That T15 finish easily eclipsed Chip Sullivan's T30 finish at Whistling Straits in 2004 as the best finish by a club pro since the turn of the century.
Valhalla Golf Club was designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1986 and has had no shortage of high level events over the years. It hosted its first major championship back in 1996 when Mark Brooks defeated Kenny Perry in a playoff to win the PGA Championship. In 2000 it got to host the PGA again where Tiger Woods defeated Bob May in another playoff. This was the third leg of the "Tiger Slam". In 2008 it hosted the Ryder Cup where the United States snapped a three-event losing streak winning 16.5 to 11.5 over Europe. Valhalla is also the site of Rory McIlroy's last major championship victory back in 2014 when he beat Phil Mickelson by one shot. It has also hosted a pair of Senior PGA Championships in 2004 won by Hale Irwin and in 2011 won by Tom Watson.
Who will be the next to write history at Valhalla? Well that are no shortages of potential storylines. It would be criminal to start with anyone other than Scottie Scheffler who has won four of his last five starts and is a five-foot putt away in Houston from potentially making it 5-for-5. Those wins include the Masters, THE PLAYERS and two Signature Events. There are some questions with Scheffler, however, with him having taken three weeks off to be with his wife Meredith in anticipation of their first child. It's hard to believe he will still be at the level of play he showed in March and April, but even close to that might be enough to pick up his third major championship.
Then you have a four and a five-time major champion that are coming off wins heading to the PGA Championship. McIlroy not only won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans partner event with Shane Lowry, but capped it off with a vintage final-round performance to take down Xander Schauffele and win the Wells Fargo Championship for the fourth time. McIlroy didn't have the showing he wanted to at Augusta and will be hoping to end that long major drought at Valhalla. Brooks Koepka on the other hand has won five majors since Rory won his last, including three of the last six PGA Championships. Koepka was surprisingly nowhere to be found at Augusta, but is motivated to do better coming off a win at LIV Singapore.
Until it happens one key storyline to keep in mind heading to the PGA Championship is Jordan Spieth trying to complete the career grand slam. The winner of the 2015 Masters, 2015 U.S. Open and 2017 Open Championship will be trying to join Nicklaus, Woods, Ben Hogan, Gary Player and Gene Sarazan as the only players to win all four of the professional major championships. This will be Spieth's eighth crack at it, but he hasn't finished better than T29 in his last four attempts. He also has just one finish better than T29 in his last nine starts overall this season. It certainly doesn't seem to be lining up for Spieth this week, but you just never know with this guy. His best chance to win it was the 2015 PGA Championship when he finished second to Jason Day. Spieth's 17-under-par total that week would have won all but three PGA Championships since the event moved to a stroke-play format in 1958.
The PGA Championship is often thought as the least prestigious of the four major championships, but it's hard to argue with the winners they have had recently. The last seven champions have all won multiple major championships. It's also worth noting that PGA Championship setups have also gotten progressively harder and four of the last five have had a winning score at single-digits under-par. By comparison, six of the previous seven PGA Championships saw winning scores double-digit under-par. Valhalla has been one of the more scoreable venues with an average winning score of 15-under-par in their previous three times hosting the PGA Championship.
Something every player will have their eye on this week is the weather. It doesn't look like we are going to get the ideal firm and fast conditions the club was looking for when they made the change from bentgrass to zoysia in 2021. There are a strong chance of storms on both Tuesday and Wednesday that could interrupt the tournament prep for some players. It would also be surprising if we didn't see some rain and potentially lightening at some point during the four tournament rounds. The most likely shot at that appears to be during Friday's second round. The good news for the players is that the wind should be pretty steady throughout the tournament and shouldn't be too much of an issue to deal with. Temperatures will also be pretty consistent this week starting in the high-70s and potentially reaching the mid-to-upper-80s by Sunday. Even given the added length of 151 yards since the 2014 PGA Championship, I'd be surprised if we didn't crack double-digits under-par this year given the expected conditions.
Recent Champions
2023 - Brooks Koepka -9 (Oak Hill)
2022 - Justin Thomas -5 (Southern Hills)
2021 - Phil Mickelson -6 (Kiawah Island)
2020 - Collin Morikawa -13 (TPC Harding Park)
2019 - Brooks Koepka -8 (Bethpage Black)
2018 - Brooks Koepka -16 (Bellerive)
2017 - Justin Thomas -8 (Quail Hollow)
2016 - Jimmy Walker -14 (Baltusrol)
2015 - Jason Day -20 (Whistling Straits)
2014 - Rory McIlroy -16 (Valhalla)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Proximity from 175-225 yards
Champion's Profile
There are a lot of similarities in Valhalla to what players faced last week at Quail Hollow, but at the same time there are also a number of key differences. The biggest similarities are that both courses are big ballparks at about 7,600 yards and only par-71s. It requires players to have to hit quite a few drivers off the tees into tight corridors framed by fairways bunkers and meandering creeks. The par-3s and both Valhalla and Quail Hollow are all you want averaging 215 yards and 208 yards, respectively. There is also a fair amount of elevation changes on both courses, more than TV can really do them justice.
As for the differences, the biggest one is going to be that the rough at Valhalla will be a lot more penal. The rough at Quail Hollow was just long enough to lose some control into really firm greens, but we'll likely see more forced layups this week if you draw a bad lie in the rough at Valhalla. Oak Hill had some pretty nasty stuff out there if you missed the fairway and I think the PGA is just fine with continuing with that kind of rough going forward on a lot of these parkland-style courses. Valhalla is also going to be mostly zoysia grasses as compared to Quail Hollow which features bermudagrass. The rain this week might affect it, but in theory the fairways at Valhalla should chase out more and make holding the fairways more difficult. The last difference is that the greens are way smaller at Valhalla, in fact they will be the third-smallest on Tour to this point in the season. Iron play was at a premium to firm greens last week and it will be just as much so again this week in Louisville.
7,600 yards, thick rough and small greens. Sounds like a ball-strikers paradise doesn't it? It's hard to really deny it, but any major championship you need to be hitting the ball well to contend. If it does end up getting wet out there this week, driving accuracy is going to be even more important to avoid this rough from making you look foolish. The small targets into the greens should also in theory present more opportunities for players to gain strokes around the greens. With the length of the par-3s and seven par-4s being over 460 yards, we should see a lot of long irons this week. Players who rank highly from 175-225 yards would be wise to key on.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rory McIlroy ($12,100)
There's not many better in the history of golf that are better when they get hot than McIlroy. We've seen him go on these types of runs for a few weeks in a row in the past and it takes a special kind of performance to stop it. I talked about the similarities with Quail Hollow and Valhalla and this is the man that is the last winner on both courses. If you're going to get Scheffler it would seem like this would be the time and McIlroy is coming off a week where he ranked top-10 in every strokes gained metric and now leads the PGA Tour in total driving.
Brooks Koepka ($11,600)
If he isn't on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday of a major it's a pretty big disappointment for Koepka and that's actually been the case for the last three majors. That being said, this type of course is the five-time major champion's bread and butter. Parkland-style, long, thick rough and potentially a wet golf course. There just feels like a lot of value here for the No. 5 priced player on the board coming off a win and motivated to continue to run up his major tally.
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,500)
DeChambeau is always going to be a threat on long golf courses with penal rough because of the speed he creates. He has finished T4 in two of his last three starts at the PGA Championship and was T6 at the Masters. He preceded that strong showing at Augusta with four straight top-10 finishes on LIV. DeChambeau leads LIV Golf in driving distance and is top-10 in both GIR percentage and scrambling. There's a lot that seems to be lining up here.
The Middle Tier
Cameron Young ($10,300)
At some point Young is going to break through, and this is the type of venue I could see it happening. Young has made the cut in every start in 2024 and has racked up five top-10 finishes. The 27-year-old has been a strong performer in majors, with five top-10s since the start of 2022. During that time frame he ranks only behind Scheffler and McIlroy in SG: Ball-Striking per round in majors. He comes into Valhalla having gained strokes on the greens in three of his last four starts and ranks top-15 in both proximity 175-200 yards and 200-225 yards.
Tony Finau ($9,700)
Finau maybe has not shown the upside that we've been accustomed to the last few years, but he has still been one of the most consistent on Tour and also at the PGA Championship. Finau has missed just one cut in 12 starts this season to go along with six top-25 finishes. He has also only missed one cut in nine career starts at the PGA with a trio of top-10 finishes. I think there's a great chance Finau can add another one this week given how well he is hitting the ball ranking 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 10th in total driving, 16th in GIR percentage and first in proximity from 200-225 yards.
Byeong Hun An ($9,400)
I feel like I have played An more weeks than not, and very rarely does he not come through. There's no reason to hop of the train now heading to a golf course that should perfectly suit his game. An has racked up four top-4 finishes this season, including a pair in the last two weeks, along with four other top-25 finishes. He is also excellent for DFS purposes because he is second in birdie average this season. Also top-25 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Tee-to-Green, total driving, GIR percentage, proximity 175-200 yards and proximity 200-225 yards.
The Long Shots
Keith Mitchell ($8,400)
Anytime there is added emphasis on hitting the driver well, Mitchell has to be in the conversation. The 32-year-old had ranked at least 21st in SG: Off-the-Tee for the last seven seasons, including sixth so far in 2024. The difference this year, however, has been his improvements in his iron game as he ranks top-10 in SG: Approach, GIR percentage and proximity to the hole. Mitchell is 31st-or-better in par 3, par 4 and par-5 scoring as well. He has finished top-30 in nine of his 13 starts in 2024 and has made his last three cuts at the PGA Championship.
Taylor Pendrith ($8,200)
This is perhaps my favorite play of the week. Pendrith is coming off top-11 finishes the last four weeks including his maiden victory at the Byron Nelson. Valhalla should be another great course for him given his top-10 ranking in driving distance. The Canadian's putting has taken a massive leap forward in 2024 and he now ranks sixth in SG: Putting and 12th in putts per GIR. Some of the approach numbers might rule him out for some people, but Pendrith seems extremely comfortable with his game and is ready to go after it again.
Erik van Rooyen ($7,800)
van Rooyen had a torrid fall and early 2024 stretch that included 11 top-25s in a 15-start stretch. He had a few poor showings as of late, but got back on track with a T4 finish in Myrtle Beach. The South African really has the type of ball-striking you are looking for ranking 40th in total driving, 43rd in SG: Approach, 31st in GIR percentage and third in proximity from 175-200 yards. Van Rooyen is also 19th in SG: Putting and 11th in putts per GIR. This is pretty terrific value for a player that ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in SG: Total.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is the deepest field of the year and it's reflective in how far down you can get some really quality players. It certainly opens things up if you want to roster Scheffler ($13,200) or possibly even a couple players in the $11K range. I might die on this hill this week, but given the length of the course, thickness of the rough and wet conditions, I am going all in with trying to pile up as many elite drivers as possible. If they are great off the tee, chances are they are also a pretty good long iron player as well, which will be important this week. If you happen to find a couple players that check both of those boxes and also feature a pretty consistent short game, that's really all you can ask for around this place. I think we should see some better scoring that we have seen in recent PGA Championships, but I think because of the soft conditions we shouldn't see much separation. A few more players not mentioned above that have solid value this week are Si Woo Kim ($9,300), Sepp Straka ($9,100), Dean Burmester ($8,500), Kurt Kitayama ($8,400) and Jake Knapp ($8,200).
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