This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge (7,466 yards, par 72)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $4,000,000 and 700 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
After a couple weeks off for most of the top players at the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic, we are back with another signature event and an absolutely stacked field. In this signature event era of the PGA Tour, these eight elevated events are what all the top players plan their schedules around. We've seen heavy hitters take the first three with Hideki Matsuyama winning at The Sentry, Rory McIlroy claiming the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and most recently Ludvig Aberg getting a big win at The Genesis Invitational.
Much like The Genesis Invitational, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of the three player-hosted signature events which means there will be a 36-hole cut this week. The low 50 players-and-ties plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead will make it to the weekend. With only 72 players teeing it up in this prestigious event, you certainly don't want to be one of the few that fails to make the cut. The winner will take home a cool $4 million, so this is a big week for One and Done leagues as well.
If you are one of the top players, hopefully you are in good form at this point, but anyone who had a tough go of it in the West Coast events will be hoping to dial in their games in this second leg of the Florida Swing. This week is obviously a big one, but with THE PLAYERS Championship next week and The Masters not far after that, now is the time to get some confidence and start putting your name near the top of the leaderboard.
One name with a lot of eyeballs on him at Bay Hill will be Xander Schauffele, who will be making his return from a rib injury that has kept him out of competition since The Sentry in early January. Schauffele has won two of the last three major championships, but with him lacking the competitive reps as some of his fellow top players, he needs to start getting things moving in the right direction as we get closer to Augusta. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler also battled a hand injury early in the year, but he has since found his groove including a T3 at The Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago. Scheffler got his first of seven PGA Tour wins in 2024 right here at Bay Hill last season. New World No. 2 Rory McIlroy is also a former winner at Bay Hill back in 2018 and he will be looking to keep things rolling this week. With the exception of LIV players, the entire top 45 in the OWGR will tee it up at Bay Hill.
This was the first signature event of the year that uses the current FedExCup points list to determine the Aon Next 10. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational used the top 10 players from last year's FedExCup Fall standings who finished 51-60 to deterime who got spots in those signature events. On the current Aon Next 10 list is 2025 PGA Tour winners in Nick Taylor, Harris English Brian Campbell and Joe Highsmith. The players who got into this event via the Aon Swing 5 for collecting the most points at the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic that were not otherwise exempt were Aldrich Potgieter, Jacob Bridgeman, Ben Griffin, Isaiah Salinda and Max McGreevy. The five coveted sponsor exemptions were given to Justin Rose, Rafael Campos, Mackenzie Hughes, Min Woo Lee and Jackson Koivun, who was the recipient of the Palmer Cup Award. Koivun will look to do what Luke Clanton did last week at PGA National in earning his PGA Tour card via the PGA University Accelerated program. Koivun is a sophomore at Auburn and needs just two more points to do it. A top-10 in this elite field would lock it up for him.
Bay Hill is one of the stingiest tests on Tour. Only two players in the last five years have finished better than 10-under-par after 72 holes of competition (Bryson DeChambeau -11 in 2021, Scottie Scheffler -15 in 2024). Thursday and Sunday are expected to have the highest winds and will certainly be something players have to contend with on a course with a lot of danger. Friday and Saturday we should see some better scoring with slightly calmer conditions.
Recent Champions
2024 - Scottie Scheffler (-15)
2023 - Kurt Kitayama (-9)
2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019 - Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018 - Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017 - Marc Leishman (-11)
2016 - Jason Day (-17)
2015 - Matt Every (-19)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Total Driving
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- SG: Putting/Three-Putt Avoidance
Champion's Profile
Bay Hill really is just one of the most complete tests players will take on all season. You can't hide one part of your game and get away with it at a venue like this. I would target players who are consistently gaining strokes across the board. That being said, ball striking I still believe is of the highest priority. Even with the overseeded ryegrass again this week, putting the ball in the fairway is still likely to be the only way players are going to be able to attack any hole locations. The greens are large, but play smaller given how firm it usually is. Long approach shots and gusty winds will lend itself to longer putts and more scrambling opportunities. Your quality short game players and lag putters will have a chance to thrive. This is one of the toughest sets of par-3s on the PGA Tour and requires a lot of precision to make it out of there in good standing. On such a tough golf course, the par-5s will be very important to take advantage of. The longer hitters will be able to reach all of them in two, and typically the winner here is among the leaders in that department. As I said at the top, Bay Hill checks all the boxes and the player who is playing off short grass the most on all their shots is likely to have a really good chance at slipping on that iconic red cardigan Sunday afternoon.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($13,200)
It's a big number to pay, but I think completely worth it on this venue. Scheffler has finished T15-1st-T4-1st in four attempts at Bay Hill and just continues to hit the ball at an elite level. Scheffler has also gained at least half a stroke per round on the greens in his last five tournaments. The 13-time PGA Tour winner struggled around the greens in his first two starts back from injury, but was much better at Torrey Pines and looks ready to go on another big run at the perfect time.
Rory McIlroy ($12,600)
McIlroy makes a strong case as well to lead off your lineup at $600 cheaper. He has never finished worse than T27 in 10 previous starts at Bay Hill, and also owns eight top-13 finishes including his victory in 2018. This is a course where there are a number of forced carries and not many can send it further with quality accuracy than McIlroy. The Northern Irishman struggled on the greens at Torrey Pines, but that came after nine straight events where he gained strokes with the putter. He'll be just fine at Bay Hill where he always seems to roll it well.
Justin Thomas ($10,900)
Thomas' combination of elite iron and short game play make him a great option at any type of demanding golf course. Thomas led the field in SG: Approach last time out at Torrey Pines and he sits fifth in that category for the season. The 15-time winner on Tour has also gained strokes around the greens in 18 of his last 19 starts. Thomas is so close to picking up his first win since 2022 with five top-10s in his last seven starts, and the extra speed he's picked up off the tee should help him at Bay Hill.
The Middle Tier
Shane Lowry ($9,800)
Lowry had a surprisingly awful record at Bay Hill until he broke that trend last year en route to a solo third place finish. His simply dominant ball striking over much of the last two years has been too much to ignore going to a demanding golf course like this. Lowry ranks second this season in proximity to the hole and 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He has gained at lead 0.9 strokes per round on approach in seven of his last eight starts. This is one of the best values out there.
Russell Henley ($9,700)
Henley is a little cheaper than I thought he would be at under $10K. He is 12th in the DataGolf rankings and finished top-10 in three of his last four starts. He's been one of the most consistent ball strikers on Tour in terms of accuracy over the last several seasons and is now also putting at an elite level, gaining strokes on the greens in his last 10 starts. Henley struggled to get a handle on Bay Hill early in his career, but posted a T13 and a T4 over the last three years.
Michael Kim ($9,200)
Kim is on a roll right now, going T2-T13-T12-T6 across the last four tournaments. During that stretch he has gained strokes in every category, except for off the tee in Mexico when he was just barely in the red. I talked in the profile that you got to have all facets of your game working at Bay Hill and Kim certainly has that going for him. Considering the inconsistency of a lot of players around him, why not just go with Kim again?
The Long Shots
J.J. Spaun ($8,800)
Spaun is coming off a strong T2 showing at PGA National and his iron play has been dialed in so far in 2025. The veteran is ninth in SG: Approach, 22nd in GIR percentage and eighth in proximity. He is pretty high up in some of the longer proximity buckets as well, which will be important at this course. Apart from having to WD in Phoenix, he has finished T33-or-better in every start this season. Spaun doesn't have the best record at Bay Hill, but he's actually putted well here in his last couple attempts, something he's done better overall in 2025 as well.
Nick Taylor ($8,300)
This is an elite field, but this price isn't matching up for Taylor, who finished 1st-T12-T33-T25-T9 in his last five starts. Taylor has been great with the irons this season, ranking fourth in SG: Approach and sixth in GIR percentage. He's also 13th in driving accuracy and 28th in putts per GIR. Taylor finished T12 a year ago at Bay Hill and I feel very strongly about him giving DFS players a strong return given his profile.
Chris Kirk ($7,300)
If there was ever going to be a place that Kirk got out of this slump it would be Bay Hill. Kirk has a fantastic record around this place with six top-16 finishes, four of those coming in his last six tries. The ball-striking numbers really haven't been all that bad over the last several months, the putter has just been horrendous. That being said, Kirk has gained strokes on the greens at Bay Hill in seven of his last eight starts here. Maybe he is able to find something there this week.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Bay Hill is one of those courses with a lot of variability. If you're hitting good shots, there will be a fair amount of chances for birdies. If your ball striking is a little off, it can feel like the hardest course in the world and the big numbers will pile up. I feel like loading up on ball strikers is probably the safest bet to first and foremost make sure that we don't have any golfers that miss this very small cut. From there I would lean on quality course history and players who have been solid either around the greens or with the putter of late. Scheffler and McIlroy will both be popular even at the large price tags, but fortunately this seems to be a very strong $9K range which will help in lineup construction.
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