This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $6.5M
Winner's Share: $1.17M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Palm Harbor, Fla.
Course: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Copperhead)
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
2017 champion: Adam Hadwin
Tournament Preview
After a week in Mexico, we swing back to Florida, where they like to use scary descriptors. Two weeks ago at the Honda, it was "The Bear Trap." This week at the Valspar, it's "The Snake Pit." All kidding aside, Nos. 16-18 at Copperhead are annually among the toughest closing three-hole stretches on the PGA Tour, with two treacherous par-4s sandwiching a long par-3. They all play over par; and if the golfers aren't careful, way over par. Copperhead is not your traditional Florida track, as it's extremely narrow, tree-lined and situated on the western coast by the Gulf of Mexico. It's also an oddity for a par-71 in that there are five par-3s and four par-5s. But even with all those par-5s, the Valspar always ranks near the bottom in birdies and eagles. Par is a good score on most holes, and there is no dishonor in simply trying to avoid bogey. The course actually played kind of easy last year, with Adam Hadwin winning at 14-under-par and the track ranking as only the 17th toughest on Tour. But that's not the norm.
Not only do we get back to Florida this week, we also get back to Tiger Woods, who will be playing the tournament for the first time as he continues his run-up to Augusta. With a fairly weak field, Woods finds himself at his highest position to date on the DraftKings board: $9,500, the No. 7 price. This is a brutally tough track, with the winning score sometimes in the single digits, but the good news for Woods is that Copperhead is a place to often club down and leave driver in the bag. Long iron play, along with putting, rule the roost here, as we'll detail in the key stats and Champion's Profile below. That's a good setup for Woods, but whether that steep price provides good value is a tough call.
Only two of the top 10 and seven of the top 25 in the world are here. No. 4 Jordan Spieth and No. 5 Justin Rose head the list, but just outside the top 10 lurk No. 11 Sergio Garcia, No. 12 Rory McIlroy and No. 14 Henrik Stenson, who is making his 2018 stateside debut.
Weather-wise, we're looking at some chilly mornings for the first two rounds and the wind should be a factor on Thursday, too. But there doesn't appear to be any advantage to early/late tee times. The forecast calls for warming on the weekend, with a significant chance of rain Sunday.
Finally, a fun fact that may interest only us: Chris Couch will be playing his first tournament in six years. Now almost 45, Couch actually has four tournaments remaining on a long-ago major medical extension. Somehow, DraftKings values 26 golfers lower than Couch. How embarrassing for them, but we're not naming names.
Key Stats to Winning at Copperhead
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Greens in regulation (175-200 yards)/strokes gained: approach
• Scrambling/strokes gained: around the green
• Putting inside 10 feet/strokes gained: putting
• Bogey avoidance
Past Champions
2017 – Adam Hadwin
2016 - Charl Schwartzel
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – John Senden
2013 – Kevin Streelman
2012 – Luke Donald
2011 – Gary Woodland
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Retief Goosen
2008 – Sean O'Hair
Champion's Profile
If ever there was a tournament where shorter hitters can prosper, this is it. Just look above at the past 10 champions. Only Gary Woodland would be considered a long hitter. Copperhead may technically be long at more than 7,300 yards for a par-71, but there are a bunch of dog legs to mute distance, not to mention five par-3s. We're looking at quality long iron players who are happy to play it safe. We aren't looking for any heroes. This is one of the hardest tracks for greens in regulation, which brings scrambling into play. And historically, great putting has translated into success at Copperhead, especially from inside 10 feet. This would be the perfect week to take Jordan Spieth, the 2015 champion, if he were putting well. But he's not.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Let's start off by saying that this is a great week to avoid the highest-priced guys and fill your lineup from the $7,500-$9,500 range. That said, fantasy players will be looking for Tier 1 picks, so here goes:
Tier 1 Values
Sergio Garcia - $10,900 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 16-1)
Garcia is the No. 3 guy on the DraftKings board, behind Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy. But neither of them is playing well enough to warrant jumping on a mid-$11,000 price tag, so we'll dip down to Garcia. And we're not even overly wild about him. But Garcia is a terrific long iron player, so much so that he was able to string together three consecutive top-16s here from 2011-13 despite his longtime putting woes. The Spaniard hasn't played Copperhead since a T7 in 2013, but he's coming off another T7 last week in Mexico, where he struck the ball beautifully.
Henrik Stenson - $10,200 (20-1)
Stenson would ordinarily be the surest bet among the top guys, having finished T7-T11-T4 the past three years. Really, even though Stenson has slipped somewhat to No. 14 in the OWGR, he remains one of the preeminent long iron players in the world. The one thing that gives u pause is that the Swede has been idle for four weeks in advance of this, his 2018 PGA Tour debut. But he also turned in a pair of top-10s in strong fields in Abu Dhabi and Dubai right after the new year.
Tier 2 Values
Tony Finau - $9,400 (25-1)
Finau checks off almost all the boxes (regular readers already know which box he doesn't check). He's first in greens in regulation from 175 to 200 yards, seventh in strokes gained: tee to green and even 25th in bogey avoidance. Finau has a pair of top-6 cashes over the past five weeks, and was a respectable T27 last week in Mexico. Want more? He tied for fifth last year at Copperhead. Want less? He's ranked 145th in putting inside of 10 feet.
Adam Hadwin - $8,800 (30-1)
We liked Hadwin last year when he was $6,800 and we still like him at this price. We might not have said that two months ago. The Canadian hit a sustained rough patch after winning here last year, but he has righted himself, with three top-10s already in 2018, including T9 last week in Mexico. Hadwin's season-long stats do not look pretty, but that's taking into account his woeful fall season.
Webb Simpson - $8,500 (40-1)
Simpson used to play Copperhead quite well, running off four straight top-20s from 2010-2013, including a runner-up in 2011. He hasn't come close to that since, but he is ranked third in scrambling, fifth in bogey avoidance, and 19th in putting inside 10 feet, and he's still a top-flight long-iron player. Simpson also has a pair of top-5 cashes since New Year's.
Byeong Hun An - $8,400 (40-1)
Well, we got a bit of sticker shock after seeing this price, but then we settled down and saw that An is ranked 10th in both GIR from 175-200 and in strokes gained: approach. He's even a not-too-bad-for-him 61st in putting inside 10 feet. An tied for fifth two weeks ago at the Honda and had another top-25 in Phoenix.
Matt Kuchar - $8,200 (40-1)
Like hot chocolate on a cold winter day, Kuchar is always there to comfort you. And usually at an affordable price. He's made seven consecutive Valspar cuts, five of them top-25s. Kuchar was ranked top-12 in both bogey avoidance and putting inside 10 feet before having a dreadful week in Mexico (T58).
Tier 3 Values
Cameron Smith - $8,000 (50-1)
Smith hasn't done much in his first two go-rounds at Copperhead, with both finishes outside the top 40. But this season, Smith has top-25s in six of his seven starts, including T6 last time out at Riviera. The 24-year-old Aussie is ranked fourth in scrambling and tied for fifth in bogey avoidance.
Kevin Na - $8,000 (40-1)
Na missed the Valspar last year during a down season for him. The three years prior, he cashed T22-T10-T2. Plus, he's found some form of late with a runner-up at Riviera after a T20 at Pebble Beach. Na is ranked No. 1 on Tour in strokes gained: around the green and 27th in bogey avoidance.
Chez Reavie - $7,900 (40-1)
Reavie has come back to Earth in his past two starts after notching consecutive runners-up at Phoenix and Pebble. He has played decently at the Valspar, with a T27 last year and a T22 the year before, with two other top-20s through the years. Reavie ranks eighth on Tour in bogey avoidance, ninth in scrambling and 15th in strokes gained: approach.
Jason Dufner - $7,800 (50-1)
Boring golf is the key to success at Copperhead. Is there anyone more boring than Dufner? He has made nine straight Valspar cuts, seven of them being top-25s. He also has top-25s in half his six starts this season. Dufner is ranked T37 in bogey avoidance.
John Huh - $7,300 (100-1)
Huh is getting better every year at Copperhead. After three straight missed cuts, he's gone from T33 to T22 to T9 last year. Huh is 5-for-5 in cuts so far in 2018, tying for 24th in his last start at the Honda. Nothing really stands out among Huh's stats -- nothing except his recent positions on the leaderboard.
Long-Shot Values
Beau Hossler - $7,100 (100-1)
Hossler has made 9-of-11 cuts on the season, though he trunk-slammed last time out at Riviera. The 22-year-old seems well-situated for Copperhead, ranking 29th in bogey avoidance, 41st in putting inside 10 feet and 62nd in greens in regulation 175-200. Hossler missed the cut in his Valspar debut a year ago.
Nick Watney - $7,000 (125-1)
Watney is far from the top-10 golfer he used to be. But he has made 10 straight cuts at Copperhead, including a T14 last year. He's also 5-for-5 in cuts so far in 2018.
Aaron Wise - $6,900 (125-1)
We're certainly tempting fate, as Wise has alternated cashes with missed cuts his last nine starts dating to the fall season, and if form holds, he's due for a trunk-slam this week. Such inconsistency is to be expected from a 21-year-old. Wise has recorded three top-20s when he does stick around for the weekend, and was T33 in his last start at the Honda. The native of South Africa ranks 48th in strokes gained: putting and 58th in strokes gained: total heading into his Valspar debut.
Ben Martin - $6,900 (150-1)
Martin hasn't missed a cut in five tries in 2018. He opened with a T7 at the Sony and more recently has at T26 at Pebble and a T33 at the Honda. Martin ranks 24th in greens in regulation 175-200 and 63rd in bogey avoidance. He's played Valspar only twice, including last year's T52.
