This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $10.5M
Winner's Share: $1.89M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course
Yardage: 7,189
Par: 72
2016 champion: Jason Day
Tournament Preview
The list of recent winners at The Players Championship is impressive -- Woods, Mickelson, Day, Garcia, Fowler, Stenson, Scott. Add in the likes of Nicklaus, Norman, Couples, Duval, Price, Floyd and Trevino, and it's a remarkable array of champions over the 43-year history of golf's unofficial fifth major. Lesser names have won over the years, but with one of the strongest fields on the calendar -- stronger than some majors -- star power is bound to be featured on the leaderboard. Forty-eight of the top 50 in the OWGR are on hand, with only No. 25 Thomas Pieters and No. 27 Brandt Snedeker absent. Throw in perhaps the world's most famous golf hole and, yes, even Johnny Miller, and you have all the ingredients for one of the marquee moments of the season. One of the beauties of TPC Sawgrass is it doesn't favor any one type of golfer. As they say on The Golf Channel every year, you'll need to hit every club in your bag, and as we'll illustrate in the Champion's Profile below, guys who do well one year often do poorly in another -- no champion has so much as finished in the top-10 the following year since Adam Scott in 2005.
The course has undergone significant changes since we last saw it -- some planned, some not. Hurricane Matthew roared through last fall and tore away some 200 trees from the Stadium Course (almost 400 for the entire course). Every green has been replaced with a different type of Bermuda grass, and it's always an unknown in the first year of new greens. The par-4 12th has been shortened to a drivable 302 yards, albeit with significant water risk along the left side, and a huge lake has been added between the 6th and 7th holes. Still, the signature is the tiny island green at the 137-yard 17th. After that frightening moment, all the golfers have left is the brutish 462-yard par-4 18th, with the left side lined with water its entire length. Last year, that was the hardest hole on the course, with 42 scores of double bogey or worse. The course en masse wasn't overly hard, ranking 19th among 50 tracks.
Weather-wise, typical Florida springtime heat is forecast, but there may not be any rain and even the wind should be relatively benign.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Sawgrass (in order of importance)
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Proximity to the hole
Past Champions
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Martin Kaymer
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Matt Kuchar
2011 - K.J. Choi
2010 - Tim Clark
2009 - Henrik Stenson
2008 - Sergio Garcia
2007 - Phil Mickelson
Champion's Profile:
It's interesting to view the tournament history, as some very big names have combined very high finishes with horrible performances. For example, Rickie Fowler has a win and a runner-up but has missed the cut in his five other starts. Jordan Spieth debuted with a top-5 but missed the cut the past two years. Francesco Molinari has three top-10s and three MCs. We usually don't see such wild swings. And as mentioned above, defending champions have a real hard time defending. Besides the all-important GIR and scrambling, we'll incorporate strokes-gained metrics into our value picks. We don't like to call them stats because they really are an amalgamation of stats, combining our key categories. One of the most important this week is strokes gained: approach-the-green. There have been different paths to victory the past few years: Jason Day was only 15th in GIR, but first in scrambling. Fowler was inexplicably 51st in GIR, but 10th in scrambling and third in proximity. Martin Kaymer was third in GIR and fourth in scrambling but only 46th in proximity. Tiger Woods -- yes, this is the second-to last of his 79 PGA Tour titles, back in 2013 -- was third in GIR and sixth in scrambling but only 23rd in proximity and remarkably only 38th in SGP.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Dustin Johnson - $12,000 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 7-1)
Johnson has never had so much as a top-25 in eight visits to the Stadium Course -- last year's T28 was his best cash. But as difficult as it is to explain that, it's just as difficult to bypass the No. 1 golfer in the world who last week showed no signs of his pre-Masters back injury. As if it needs explaining, Johnson is first on Tour in GIR, first in strokes gained: tee-to-green and second in SG: approach. Plus, he's a full $1,000 cheaper than last week at the Wells Fargo.
Rory McIlroy - $11,200 (10-1)
This is McIlroy's professional debut as a married man, and he will be looking to extend his honeymoon with his first Players title. McIlroy has done everything but win, with three top-8s and a T12 in his past four visits; though it should be noted he had three straight missed cuts prior. Furthermore, he's just a top-10 machine, with seven in a row in stroke-play events dating back to September. McIlroy hasn't played enough rounds, but otherwise he'd be at or near the top of many important stats.
Jordan Spieth - $10,800 (12-1)
As expected, Spieth debuted with a T4 at Sawgrass in 2014, but he has missed the cut the past two years. Last year, Spieth was still in the recovery phase from his Masters meltdown, so let's throw that one out. He's second on Tour in GIR, second in scrambling, first in strokes gained: approach. His putting has been a bit off -- and by off, we mean he ranks fifth in putting average -- so he reportedly has gone back to an old putter this week.
Yes, we just listed the top three guys on the DraftKings board, but the interesting thing about this week is that ownership could be widely spread out, especially when adding in the No. 4 guy, Sergio Garcia, whom we will take a pass on despite his strong history, as perhaps he is still on Cloud 9 from his Masters victory.
Tier 2 Values
Jon Rahm - $9,600 (20-1)
Rahm has never played the Stadium Course, but big whoop -- we say that almost every week as he racks up top-5 after top-5. Rahm is top-30 in GIR, proximity, scrambling and putting average, second in SG: T2G, 10th in SG: approach. You could do worse than anchor your lineup around this guy and save plenty of cash by bypassing the guys at the very top. At $9,600 and the No. 7 guy on the DK board, Rahm seems like a bargain.
Rickie Fowler - $9,300 (20-1)
Which Rickie will show up? The winner and runner-up, or the five trunk-slam guy? It really makes little sense to see such disparate results. Last year, Fowler was in a protracted funk after his Phoenix meltdown, plus it's always hard to return to a tournament as the defending champ. Besides, Fowler is playing much better this year, sitting second on Tour in scrambling and fourth in both SG: T2G and strokes gained: approach and sixth in SGP. There's room for both Rahm and Fowler with lots to spare in a $50K salary cap.
Brooks Koepka - $8,600 (30-1)
Koepka surely has turned his game around the past few weeks, more to the level that was expected from a golfer ranked in the top-20 in the world. Some of his numbers don't look good and don't fit the profile we are seeking this week, but those are his season-long numbers and he was bad for a while. Koepka has gone T9-T11-2-T5 in his last four starts, with that T11 coming at Augusta. Also keep in mind that even though Koepka tied for 35th here last year, he was 8-under before collapsing on the weekend. There's even room to add Koepka to Fowler and Rahm and still have plenty of cash left over to fill your lineup with some Tier 3 guys.
Tier 3 Values
Matt Kuchar - $7,900 (50-1)
Ol' reliable Kuchar. You can always count on him to do semi-well in the big tournaments, which undoubtedly means high ownership at a favorable price. But keep in mind that Kuchar actually won this big tournament back in 2012. Overall, he's got five top-20s in his last eight Players starts, including a T3 last year. Outside of being ninth in scrambling his stats aren't great, but he finds a way to get it done at Sawgrass year after year.
Kevin Kisner - $7,700 (50-1)
We tabbed Kisner last week and were fairly stunned when he missed the cut, and we usually have such a bad taste left by one of our picks trunk-slamming that we can't bring ourselves to jump back on board the following week. However, Kisner is playing too well this season, and he was runner-up at THE PLAYERS two years ago. Kisner is seventh in proximity, 12th in both SG: T2G and strokes gained: approach and 47th in SGP.
Francesco Molinari - $7,700 (50-1)
With three top-10s here, including a T7 last year, the Italian obviously knows his way around the Stadium Course. He played well for three rounds last week at the Wells Fargo before a Sunday fade. Molinari is 41st in GIR, 31st in putting average. He's also ninth in SGT2G and third in SG approach.
Tyrrell Hatton - $7,600 (80-1)
Hatton has cooled a bit since his great run in late winter and early spring, but he also hasn't played all that much -- just four tournaments after his T4 at Bay Hill in mid-March. His strokes-gained numbers are outstanding: 24th in T2G, 14th in approach and first in putting. There is a little bit of a risk with the first-time PLAYERS entrant, but obviously one we feel comfortable with.
Tony Finau - $7,400 (60-1)
Finau missed the cut in his first foray to Ponte Vedra last year. He's a much better golfer this time around. He's still not much of a putter, but he's fifth in GIR, eighth in SG: T2G and 23rd in SG: approach. Even his scrambling is middle of the road, at 108th.
Martin Kaymer - $7,300 (60-1)
This figures to be a very popular pick this week. The 2014 champ didn't have strong finishes the past two years, but he hasn't missed a cut in his eight PLAYERS starts. In fact, he hasn't missed a cut anywhere in more than a year. Kaymer is 174th in GIR but climbs to 33rd in SG: T2G. He's also a surprising 21st in SGP.
Long-Shot Values
Gary Woodland - $6,900 (125-1)
We're scratching our heads over this one. Why is he so cheap, and so dissed with 125-1 odds? Woodland is 17th in GIR, 20th in SGT2G and 24th in SG approach. He's cooled off from earlier this season, but was T28 here last year and T11 in 2014.
Branden Grace - $6,800 (80-1)
Grace has played Sawgrass three times and hasn't missed cut, although he has not recorded a top-40 either. The price is right for someone ranked No. 22 in the world, especially when he's also 68th in GIR and 44th in scrambling.
Adam Hadwin - $6,800 (80-1
Hadwin missed the cut in his PLAYERS debut in 2015 but improved to T39 last year. Now, he's a more accomplished golfer and a PGA tour winner. He's also fourth in scrambling, 11th in putting average and 55th in GIR, and top-30 in both SGT2G and SG approach.
Zac Blair - $6,500 (Field, 13-2)
We haven't introduced Par-4 Performance into our stats, but it surely stood out that Blair is seventh in that category. On a course with some really easy par-5s, that counts for something. Blair is third on Tour in scrambling, 42nd in SGP. He made the cut last year in his first visit to Sawgrass and finished T49.
