This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
A MILITARY TRIBUTE AT THE GREENBRIER
Purse: $7.3M
Winner's Share: $1.314M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: White Sulphur Springs, W.Va.
Course: The Old White TPC
Yardage: 7,286
Par: 70
2017 champion: Xander Schauffele
Tournament Preview
Welcome to the tournament formerly known as the Greenbrier Classic. It now has a title that doesn't exactly roll off your tongue, but it's the cause that counts most. The Old White has been around for more than 100 years, though this is just the eighth edition of the tournament, which began with a bang in 2010 with winner Stuart Appleby shooting a final-round 59. There was no event in 2016 with severe flooding in the area, but the track returned last year in pristine shape. Even though there was a heavy restoration of the course, and all the greens were rebuilt, champion Xander Schauffele's 14-under was in line with the winning score in the four previous editions, all between 13- and 16-under. It's not a terribly difficult course -- ranked 27th hardest out of 50 on Tour last season -- but it's not a flat-out birdie-fest either.
The field gets a little bit of a boost from last year, as seven of the top 35 in the world rankings are entered, led by Greenbrier pitchman and property owner Phil Mickelson (get ready to see that commercial umpteen times this week). Also on hand are fellow Greenbrier resident Bubba Watson, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Kevin Kisner and Schauffele. When we throw in Russell Henley, that completes the top-50 contingent in the 156-man field. All eight of those guys have already qualified for the British Open in two weeks, but the Greenbrier is part of the Open Qualifying Series, and four golfers not already eligible will earn berths for Carnoustie, just like last week at the Quicken Loans National.
The Old White is a little different from the courses we see week in and week out on Tour because the fairways are generously wide and the greens are pretty large, averaging about 7,000 square feet. Those large surfaces give an edge to the better putters, and it's something we'll be focusing on in the key stats and Champion's Profile below. The fairways exceed an average width of 35 yards at the main check points (275 yards, 300, 325). In years past, that didn't provide much of an edge to the longer hitters, but it did last year. Still, everyone should get a bit of a boost off the tee with the course situated some 2,000 feet above sea level. One of the more disappointing characteristics of the track is that it closes with a par-3 hole, and a short one at that, just 177 yards. The 18th is among the easiest holes on the course, offering little opportunity for high drama, other than the remote chance for a hole-in-one. Fun fact: The Greenbrier website says the great Sam Snead shot his final ace there back in 1995. It was not in Tour event and possibly not in any type of event, as Snead was 83 at the time. Still, you try getting an ace at 83. Or 33.
Weather-wise, there was rain in the forecast in advance of the tournament, plus a 100 percent chance on Friday, so tee times might be a good consideration for lineup construction. A lot of rain surely could soften and lengthen the course. Otherwise, it should be hot and sticky with minimal wind.
Key Stats to Winning at The Old White TPC (in order of importance)
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Putting average/strokes gained: putting
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: approach
• Driving distance/strokes gained: off the tee
• Proximity to the hole
Past Champions
2017 - Xander Schauffele
2015 - Danny Lee
2014 – Angel Cabrera
2013 – Jonas Blixt
2012 – Ted Potter Jr.
2011 – Scott Stallings
2010 – Stuart Appleby
Champion's Profile
Schauffele finished sixth in strokes gained: putting. Lee was seventh, Cabrera was fifth and Blixt was second. You may not have to putt that well to get on the first page of the leaderboard, but as we mentioned above, larger greens make putting harder and tend to separate the better putters. You won't win this tournament without excellent putting. Driving distance wasn't a key indicator until last year, and maybe that was because it was rainy, like it is expected to be this week. Of the top eight finishers in 2017, five of them were top-16 in distance off the tee. Kelly Kraft and Ryan Blaum were the outliers, but Kraft had a stellar iron/wedge week and Blaum was first in strokes gained: putting. Because the course was so damaged in 2016, it needed a lot of work to get back into tournament shape, and maybe that (along with the rain) played a role in the increased emphasis on distance.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Phil Mickelson - $11,200 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 16-1)
We absolutely can't pull the trigger on the top guy on the DraftKings board, Tony Finau, because we simply don't see him putting anywhere near well enough to win. Mickelson tied for 20th last year in his first tournament without longtime caddy Bones Mackay. He is ranked second on Tour in strokes gained: putting and 10th in strokes gained: approach. We believe his wayward accuracy off the tee will be limited by the wide fairways. And maybe because he gets to sleep in his own bed on the property.
Bubba Watson - $11,000 (16-1)
Watson may not be a great putter, but with a ranking of 75th, he's better than the Tour average. Combine that with his driving distance, which leads to a ranking of third on strokes gained: off the tee, and Watson could be looking at win No. 4 on the season. Don't look at last year's T70 here -- that was In-A-Bad-Place Bubba. Instead, consider his T13 in 2015 and T16 the year before.
Webb Simpson - $10,700 (16-1)
Simpson has a great history at the Old White, with three top-10s and last year's T14. His iron play and putting have been stellar all season, as he sits 32nd in strokes gained: approach, 25th in SG: around and eighth in SG: putting. Plus, Simpson has been on form with a win at THE PLAYERS and a tie for 10th at the U.S. Open.
Russell Henley - $10,400 (20-1)
This is a big price for Henley, who's $200 more than defending champion Xander Schauffele. But we like him better here. Besides tying for fifth at the past two Greenbriers, Henley has been rock solid of late. He was in the mix at the U.S. Open and then tied for sixth at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago. He's ranked 22nd in greens in regulation, 44th in proximity to the hole and he's putting far better of late than his ranking of 70th.
Tier 2 Values
Joaquin Niemann - $9,700 (25-1)
Here's hoping the teenage sensation doesn't check his DK price and have it go to his head, because what a price it is. Niemann has played all of seven events as a pro, collecting three top-10s and last week's T17. He's never seen the Old White before, but we could say that every week.
Brian Harman - $9,500 (25-1)
Harman is coming off a tie for sixth at the Travelers with Henley, a T36 at the Open and a T14 at Colonial. He of course is not a long hitter, but that hasn't kept him from ranking 27th in greens in regulation. Harman is 44th in proximity and a stellar seventh in strokes gained: putting. His history here isn't great, but he hasn't been at the Old White since 2014.
Jimmy Walker - $9,100 (30-1)
Walker has a fantastic track record here, with three top-5s and last year's T18. He had an off week at TPC Potomac, but the Old White is far more suited for his game -- that's a polite way of saying he sprays his drives all over the place. Walker is 47th in strokes gained: approach, plus he's eighth in SG around and 38th in SG putting.
J.B. Holmes - $9,000 (30-1)
Holmes is another guy who was out of his element at TPC Potomac and thrives at the Old White. He was ninth there last year, with three more top-25s through the years. Before the National, he had been on a run with a pair of top-3s in his two prior events. The long-hitting Holmes is ranked 18th in strokes gained: off the tee. He's also 31st in SG tee to green and 68th in proximity.
Tier 3 Values
Aaron Wise - $7,900 (60-1)
Wise has missed three straight cuts since winning the Byron Nelson, so there's a bit of risk here. It's natural to take a step back after a maiden win, but Wise also benefited from the wide-open fairways at the Nelson. They aren't as wide this week, but more favorable for his game. Wise is ranked 33rd in driving distance and 38th in SG: off the tee (factoring in a not-too-terrible 90th in driving accuracy). He's also an above-average putter, ranked 34th in SG: putting. Wise also turned 22 since that Nelson win.
Andrew Putnam - $7,900 (50-1)
Putnam has ripped off nine straight made cuts, including a T27 last week at the National following his runner-up at Memphis. Five of those nine have been top-25s (one of them was at the Zurich). He's medium long off the tee, yet he's 15th in greens in regulation. He's 30th in strokes gained: around the green and a better-than-average 72nd in strokes gained: putting.
Joel Dahmen - $7,500 (100-1)
Dahmen has been on a nice run the past couple of months to bring him to the precipice of the Top 125. He has made five of his past seven cuts, with all five finishes in the top 25. He even held his own alongside Tiger Woods last Saturday, shooting a 1-under 69. Dahmen is ranked in the 70-80 range in strokes gained: off the tee and approach, as well as proximity. His putting is far worse, but those all those numbers have been better during the past two months.
J.J. Spaun - $7,400 (80-1)
Spaun has been all over the map this season -- he's got a runner-up, a third and five top-25s while also missing almost half his cuts. Part of that was injury related. Healthy again, he's coming off a T27 last week at the National and a T29 last year at the Old White. Spaun is ranked 44th in strokes gained: off the tee, 16th in SG approach and 25th in proximity.
Long-Shot Values
J.T. Poston - $7,200 (125-1)
Poston was a bit pricey last week, when he tied for 27th to give him four top-30s in his past five starts. He's ranked 48th in driving distance, 43rd in strokes gained: off the tee, 45th in greens in regulation and his putting is better of late, now up to 121st.
Trey Mullinax - $7,200 (125-1)
Mullinax is the absolute longest hitter on Tour and one of the least accurate. That adds up to a ranking of 27th in strokes gained: off the tee. He's also a decent putter, ranked 74th in SG: putting. Going back to THE PLAYERS, he has alternated missed and made cuts. He's due for a cash this week. Mullinax tied for 50th in his Greenbrier debut last year.
James Hahn - $7,100 (100-1)
Hahn has stopped the bleeding after a five-tournament stretch of missed cuts in the spring. He's cashed three in a row now. He was tied for 20th last year at the Greenbrier and for sixth in 2015. Hahn is middle of the road in both driving distance and accuracy, good for 75th in strokes gained: off the tee. He's also 63rd in greens in regulation. His putting barely makes it into positive territory, and he ranks 115th.
Vaughn Taylor - $6,700 (Field, 4-1)
Taylor is at this cellar-dwelling price because he's 0-for-4 in cuts at the Old White. Which is a pretty darn good reason to be in sub-$7,000 scrubville. But there are other indicators that we like. Taylor has made six of his past seven cuts, three of them being top-25s. He's one of the shorter hitters on Tour, yet still ranks 86th in greens in regulation and, even better, 30th in proximity. He's also ranked 61st in strokes gained: tee to green. And, his putting isn't horrible, in positive strokes-gained territory.
