DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

MEXICO OPEN AT VIDANTAWORLD

Purse: $7M
Winner's Share: $1.26M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Vallarta, Mexico
Course: Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course
Yardage: 7,436
Par: 71
2024 champion: Jake Knapp

Tournament Preview

When the new TGL simulated indoor golf league tweeted last week that there would be six teams in action spanning Monday and Tuesday, breaking from the two-a-week norm, it was not a good sign for the Mexico Open. The TGL -- a joint PGA Tour/Tiger Woods/Rory McIlroy endeavor -- has lots of top golfers, which means this week's Tour event does not.

We sort of knew that anyway, based on the Mexico Open's place on the schedule and, you know, last year's junky field. (Hey, Sherlock Holmes has nothing on us.) But the 132-man contingent is jaw-droppingly weak, with zero top-25 players and a mere four in the top-50. Heck, that's John Deere territory.

With signature events in two of the past three weeks and another in two weeks at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Mexico Open, as well as next week's Cognizant-nee-Honda Classic, doesn't stand much of a chance. Mexico tournament organizers got lucky in their first two years running a Tour event, with Jon Rahm and then Tony Finau not only entered but winning, but last year unheralded Jake Knapp hoisted the trophy.

We guess that technically, based on the OWGR, Aaron Rai and Akshay Bhatia are the headliners this year, along with the Rasmus Hojgaard and Nicolai Hojgaard, the Danish twin brothers now both playing on the Tour.

On the other hand, the headliners might very well be a pair of sponsor invites: 53-year-old Padraig Harrington, who is now starring on the Champions Tour, and 17-year-old phenom Blades Brown, who just turned pro a few weeks back at the Amex, bypassing college. Blades did shoot a 64 in the second round, the lowest score on Tour by a player under 18 in 40 years, but he missed the 54-hole cut.

In the end, though, headliners are in the eye of the beholder.

The Mexico Open -- the country's national championship -- has been around since World War II. The world's best golfers had played in it for decades, long before the PGA Tour established a footprint in the country at Mayakoba in 2007.

Lee Trevino heads the list of name golfers who have won it, joined by Ben Crenshaw, Billy Casper, Stewart Cink and Roberto De Vicenzo. More recently, the tournament was affiliated with the Korn Ferry Tour, PGA Tour Latinoamerica and even Europe's Challenge Tour. Beginning in 2022, it became a part of the biggest tour in the world, a huge turning point for golf in Mexico and a sense of pride for this nation.

This new chapter for the Mexico Open is being played out at the relatively new Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course, which is just nine years old and made its tournament debut in 2022. Fittingly, a Latin player emerged victorious, with Rahm taking home the title. Perhaps not so fittingly, the course is Greg Norman design.

There's also another PGA Tour event in Mexico. The World Wide Technology Championship is played in early November in Los Cabos and effectively replaced the Mayakoba event. The Mexico Open kind of/sort of took the place of the WGC-Mexico, which was played from 2017 to 2020.

Vallarta is located on the western edge of Mexico, just off the Pacific, so it could be very windy, especially in the afternoon. Befitting a Norman track, the course is long and wide open off the tee. Situated at sea level, it won't get an elevation boost. It is not a stock-par-71, if that's even possible. There are four par-5s, five par-3s and only nine par-4s. Two of the par-5s exceed 600 yards, including the massive 637-yard 12th. Three of the par-3s are around 200 or more. And three of the par-4s are 500ish-plus yards. The back-nine has three par-3s and three par-5s. Odd indeed.

This course ranked 21st in difficulty among the 51 played on Tour last year, and does have some very hard holes: the double-bogey-laden 475-yard 10th, the 505-yard 16th and 226-yard 17th, which means the back-nine should tougher. When you add in the 548-yard par-5 18th, one of the easiest holes on the track, the closing three-hole stretch could deliver some wild swings. Another easy hole is the drivable 297-yard seventh.

The Vidanta website says there's "wall-to-wall paspalum playing surfaces. The layout winds along the Ameca River, providing views of the Sierra Madres from every hole. Large landing areas off the tee give way to large undulating greens protected, in typical Norman fashion, by cavernous bunkers." There are more than 100 bunkers, water coming into play on 13 holes and plenty of those "sandy waste areas" (they are not hazards, you can ground your club). Most of the golfers should be at least a little familiar with paspalum greens from other courses in the Caribbean. As a reminder, paspalum tends to run slower, about 11ish on the Stimpmeter.

With 132 players in the field, more than half should make the cut.

As for the weather, it should be another green-light special. High temperatures will be in the 80s every day, with no rain forecast and the wind relatively mild for this location.

Mexico Open historical factoids: The first winner of the first edition of tournament in 1944 was Al Espinosa, who in fact won the first four Mexico Opens. You may not know the name, but Espinosa was an accomplished golfer, winning nine times on the PGA Tour in the 1920s and '30s and being named to three Ryder Cup teams. He played in 30 majors and finished in the top-25 20 times. He was runner-up twice in majors, at the 1928 PGA and also in the 1929 U.S. Open at Winged Foot, where he lost a 36-hole playoff to Bobby Jones -- by 23 shots! 

Key Stats to Winning at Vidanta

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards 
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie Average/Birdie or Better Percentage

Past Champions

2024 - Jake Knapp
2023 - Tony Finau
2022 - Jon Rahm

Champion's Profile

We don't see this often: Rahm led wire-to-wire and both Finau and Knapp led from the second round on.

As we can expect from a Norman design, driving distance really matters here. And with generous fairways, why not let fly? Knapp ranked second in the field in driving distance and 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee, and both Rahm and Finau were equally strong with driver in hand. Last year, Stephan Jaeger tied for third and led the field in driving distance.

Rahm and Finau both hit 80 percent of their greens, and Knapp was not far behind, ranking first in the field in SG: Approach.

Knapp also ranked first in SG: Tee-to-Green and 17h in SG: Putting.

To get to 20ish-under, you will need to make a lot of birdies. But the paspalum greens do make it easier for the weaker putters to keep up.

The over/under on the winning score as determined by golfodds.com is 263.5 -- 20.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Akshay Bhatia - $10,700 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1400)
Bhatia is the top-priced player on the DFS board and also has the lowest odds at the Sportsbook. While he is not among the longest hitters, he is the class of this field and should be able to do everything else well enough to be on the first page of the leaderboard. Bhatia is coming off a T9 last week at the Genesis, albeit on a totally different golf course. He tied for fourth here two years ago.

$9,000-$9,900

Sam Stevens - $9,800 (+2200)
We've talked about Stevens a bunch already in 2025. There's a reason his price is so high and his odds are so low. He's not elite in any one area statistically. He's just better than most other golfers in every category. The one area that is a bit of concern is birdie average -- Stevens is ranked only 78th on Tour. On the other hand, that could get him in the Hall of Fame in this field. This will be Stevens' seventh start already this season. He was runner-up at the Farmers and T17 at Pebble.

Patrick Rodgers - $9,500 (+2200)
Rodgers is one of about a dozen golfers to have played this tournament all three years. He's been top-10 every time, including T6 a year ago. And now, he's playing some of his best golf, coming off a T3 at the Genesis. Rodgers is an excellent driver of the golf ball -- pretty long and pretty straight. His woeful putting should be aided on the paspalum greens.

$8,000-$8,900

Alex Smalley - $8,700 (+3500)
Smalley was a pick here two weeks ago at the WMPO, where he tied for 21st at $6,900. Now, nearly $2,000 more, it's warranted to pay up. He has three top-25s in four starts in 2025 with strong stats across the board. Smalley is long, he's fairly straight, he's 26th in SG: Approach, seventh in Tee-to-Green and 18th in Putting. Yes, he did miss the cut here two years running, but he finished sixth back in 2022.

Justin Lower - $8,500 (+6500)
Lower is not a long hitter. But that didn't stop him from tying for third here a year ago. Or from tying for third at the Amex last month, getting it to 22-under. Lower is ranked top-40 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Putting, and 62nd in birdie average. Those may seem like mediocre numbers, but not in this field.

$7,000-$7,900

Jesper Svensson - $7,600 (+5500)
If you look at the stats for Svensson -- a 28-year-old Swede who got his card via the DP World Tour -- there's really only one glaring weakness: driving accuracy. If there's any place to get away with it, it's here. Somehow, he finished 10th at the Sony, which has narrow fairways. Svensson is ranked 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green and 16th in birdie average.

Aldrich Potgieter - $7,300 (+6000)
The 20-year-old from South Africa -- that's right, he's just 20 -- is the longest hitter on Tour this season and first in club head speed. From his driving accuracy numbers, it doesn't look like Potgieter knows where the ball is going half the time. But once on the green, he's a well-above-average putter, ranked 42nd. It helped him tie for 15th at the Farmers. Potgieter got his card via the Korn Ferry Tour after becoming the second youngest winner of the British Amateur ever, at age 17 in 2022.

Kris Ventura - $7,300 (+8000)
Ventura is one of the longest hitters and better putters in the field, which is a pretty good combined skillset to have if you're a professional golfer. He's also 52nd on Tour in SG: Approach. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy has made his past three cuts, highlighted by a tie for fourth at the Farmers.

Ricky Castillo - $7,200 (+9000)
The 23-year-old Korn Ferry grad has improved each week so far this season, from a missed cut at the Sony to a T43 at the Amex to a T15 at the Farmers. He is one of the longest hitters on Tour and pretty accurate for a Total Driving ranking of seventh. Putting is a certainly a concern, though again, the slower paspalum greens should help.

Trey Mullinax - $7,100 (+7500)
Mullinax has played 10 rounds on the PGA Tour this season and seven of them have been in the 60s. He tied for 18th at the Amex, reaching 16-under. He is top-10 in driving distance this season and, like others we liked in the $7,000s, wildly inaccurate. Mullinax is also ranked fifth on Tour in Putting and, somehow, sixth in SG: Total. He tied for 24th in his lone visit to Vidanta three years ago.

$6,000-$6,900

Ben Kohles - $6,800 (+12000)
Kohles made the cut at the Sony to start his 2025, then tied for 21st at the Amex before missing the Phoenix cut. He's ranked top-20 on Tour in both SG: Putting and birdie average. He's not a long hitter -- not short, either -- but very straight, ranked second on Tour in driving accuracy.

Padraig Harrington - $6,500 (+25000)
There are so many golfers in the $6,000s that simple math and probability tell us many of them will make the cut. But looking at each one individually, there's not much to like. Harrington played a few events on the DP World Tour to start his 2025 season. He made two of three cuts. He played here last year and tied for 52nd. Of all the guys $6,500 and under, the 53-year-old Irishman seems the best of a lot of bad choices.

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