This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
DEAN & DELUCA INVITATIONAL
Purse: $6.9M
Winner's Share: $1.242M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Course: Colonial Country Club
Yardage: 7,209
Par: 70
2016 champion: Jordan Spieth
Tournament Preview
If we'd ask which state plays host to the most PGA Tour events every year, many people's first thought would be Florida. However, the answer is a tie: California and Texas. While the Golden State isn't so surprising, to us, the Lone Star State is. Texas' fifth and final tournament of the season is one of the oldest on Tour. The second edition of the event now titled the Dean & Deluca Invitational has been contested solely at Colonial since 1946, save 1949 and 1975. That's behind only the Masters for a tournament taking place the most years at the same course. So it goes without saying that Colonial is not one of today's modern-day behemoths; it's a scant 7,200 yards, though a par-70, and once again the biggest hitters find themselves somewhat neutralized. (After years of making courses longer and longer -- originally called "Tiger-proofing" -- it's interesting to see that the best way to even the playing field actually is to play shorter tracks. Remember, this is where Annika Sorenstam chose to play a PGA Tour event back in 2003).
This week's event will be a lot like last week at the Byron Nelson, which took place just across the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex: a short course favoring ball strikers and good putters taking place in Texas conditions. Only this week, the greens will be smaller and the heat and wind are forecast to be fiercer. Helping us gamers, the field is significantly smaller at 122, because it's an invitational. Phil Mickelson gets an invite every year, but he's back for the first time since 2010 (perhaps because narrow fairways don't exactly suit his game). Mickelson is among seven in the OWGR top-30 on hand, not bad considering the big BMW PGA Championship taking place concurrently on the European Tour (without injured Rory McIlroy at Wentworth, the OWGR's strength-of-field rating is quite close for the two tournaments, 328-319 for the Euros).
Defending champion Jordan Spieth heads the field and the DraftKings board at $12,000, but that's quite a price to pay for someone coming off two straight missed cuts and having dropped to No. 7 in the world, his lowest standing in more than two years. Similarly, Jon Rahm is a question mark at the No. 2 price ($11,800), not because he is playing poorly -- though he stumbled his last time out -- but because history shows us experience is so important to learn the nuances of Colonial, and this is Rahm's first visit. Not only are the biggest hitters absent from the list of past champions, so are golfers without at least multiple starts here. In fact, Spieth was a relative newbie winning in his only his fourth appearance, but of course he is a special talent. That's not to say newcomers can't do well here; some invariably do, and we'll focus on what it takes in the Key Stats and Champion's Profile below.
Last year, Colonial was the 18th toughest among the 50 courses played on Tour. The hardest hole was the signature No. 5, a 481-yard par-4 that concludes the Horrible Horseshoe, a three-hole stretch so-called because the holes are shaped like a horseshoe and they're very hard (they're not horrible!). There are only two par-5s, oddly enough at Nos. 1 and 11, and they are not easy to birdie. Overall, birdies are hard to come by, with narrow, tree-lined fairways and tiny greens. Last year's 17-under by Spieth was the lowest score here since 2010.
Weather-wise, no significant rain is forecast, but the first three rounds should be brutes, with temperatures in the 90s to near 100 and the wind blowing upward of 20 mph. Both the heat and wind should mellow somewhat on Sunday, but surely fitness could come into play as much as good golf.
Key Stats to Winning at Colonial (in order of importance)
• Putting average (putts per GIR)/strokes gained putting
• Ball striking
• Proximity to the hole
• Par 4 performance
Past Champions
2016 - Jordan Spieth
2015 - Chris Kirk
2014 - Adam Scott
2013 - Boo Weekley
2012 - Zach Johnson
2011 - David Toms
2010 - Zach Johnson
2009 - Steve Stricker
2008 - Phil Mickelson
2007 - Rory Sabbatini
Champion's Profile:
Note the absence of big hitters above. The average driving distance at Colonial is about 275 yards, largely because longer shots may be penalized. Even though Spieth and Kirk won while ranking down the list in fairways hit, others on the leaderboard and many past champions were highly accurate. Both of them won with terrific putting, while Spieth also was the No. 1 scrambler last year. Most champions since 2010 have been top-5 in putting. We always stress greens in regulation, and even though it's not specifically mentioned in the key stats, it's part of ball striking, which encompasses driving distance, driving accuracy and GIR. Like last week, we'll also focus on par-4 performance, a metric that served us well. So, expect to see some value picks from last week making the grade again.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Sergio Garcia - $10,800 (For some reason, golfodds.com is not posting odds this week, for any tournament)
As mentioned above, we're bypassing Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm. Surely, Spieth will get it together at some point, but to keep expecting it to happen this week is a dangerous game. So we'll start with the No. 3 pick on the DraftKings board, Garcia, who returns for the first time since back-to-back top-15s in 2011-12. He also won here way back in 2001. We all know he's a premier ball striker (ranked second) and not the best putter; but at least for $10,800, we can justify a high-but-not-winning finish. Garcia has played decently in his two starts since the Masters. Perhaps the hangover ends this week.
Paul Casey - $10,200
Casey does not have the greatest recent form here -- T43 two years ago, missed cut the year before -- but this is a course that should suit him, and he's certainly more on his game than he was in 2014-15. Like Garcia he's a sub-optimal putter, but Casey ranks seventh in both ball striking and P4P, 12th in SGT2G and T25 in proximity.
Matt Kuchar - $10,100
The ultimate safety-net pick. Kuchar has played here 10 times, with a number of high finishes, including T6 last year and runner-up in 2013 (to Boo Weekley, of all people). Kuchar was T9 last week at the Nelson, greatly improving his ball-striking rank, from 97th to T77.
Kevin Kisner - $9,700
Kisner was 10th last year, fifth the year before, and has been playing fairly well of late. He seems a much better choice than Zach Johnson, who's $100 more and really on the decline but priced as a two-time former champ. Kisner is 15th in SGT2G, 16th in proximity and has good numbers all around, which is exactly what's needed at Colonial.
Tier 2 Values
Jason Dufner - $9,000
We know Bud Cauley has been playing well and has played well in this tournament, but we're not quite ready to plunk down $9,500 for him ($9,500 for Bud Cauley!). So we'll try Dufner for a second straight week. He's coming off a T13 at the Nelson. Dufner sits T5 in P4P, T27 in proximity, 35th in ball striking, 35th in SGP and 38th in SGT2G -- pretty dang consistent.
Adam Hadwin - $8,400
We skip a bunch of big names and drop down to Hadwin, who impressively was T5 in his maiden visit two years ago and T22 in 2016. The Canadian is 14th in putting average. He's also 27th in SGT2G, T30 in ball striking, 37th in P4P.
Chris Kirk - $8,200
Until a couple of weeks ago, this is not a pick we would've made and still may be a gamble. However, Kirk tied for 12th at The Players, giving him his first top-20 since November (yes, November). Even so, he sits T30 in proximity, 35th in GIR, 47th in SGP and 53rd in ball striking. It's a wonder his results have been so bad. Kirk's game, when on form, lines up nicely with Colonial. He won it two years ago and followed up with a T15, his fifth top-20 here in the past six years.
Brandt Snedeker - $8,100
We didn't like Snedeker last week in his first start since missing THE PLAYERS with a wrist injury. He missed the cut, but coming right back tells us the injury didn't resurface. And this is a very favorable price for the No. 32 golfer in the world who happens to be one of the best putters.
Tier 3 Values
Ryan Palmer - $7,900
It's hard to bypass Palmer, a Colonial member who delivers virtually every year here. He was T3 last year, his third top-5 in the past five tournaments. There's even some good form to buoy him. Palmer's T27 last week at the Nelson followed a T6 in San Antonio last month. Yes, his putting is horrid, but it's been horrid in years past, too. Palmer is 10th in SGT2G.
Emiliano Grillo - $7,800
As with Kirk, this is not a pick we would've made two weeks ago, but Grillo is coming off a solo 11th at The Players. He's a solid 22nd in ball striking, 24th in SGT2G, 46th in P4P and T56 in proximity. We figure the native of Resistencia in the northern part of Argentina is used to playing in very hot weather.
Pat Perez - $7,600
This is a course that Perez has traditionally played well on despite tending to falter after the West Coast Swing. He missed it last year while injured, but was T5 two years and has three other top-10s at Colonial. More importantly, his strong season is still strong, with a T22 at The Players and a Wells Fargo runner-up in his past two starts. Perez is T42 in ball striking, T29 in P4P and 32nd in SGP.
Nick Taylor - $7,300
This is like avoiding Spieth in reverse. One of these days, Spieth will bite us with a high finish. And one of these days, Taylor will torpedo us with a clunker. Still, we tabbed him last week and he was T9 at the Nelson, his second straight top-10 and fourth-straight stroke-play top-25. We really should point out, since we associated Grillo playing well in hot weather, that Taylor is from Winnipeg, the second Canadian in our value picks. And to really put the kiss of death on this pick, we picked up Taylor this week in the RotoWire league. What could possibly go wrong?
Long-Shot Values
William McGirt - $7,100
It's hard to say no to McGirt at this price. He had twin T22s at The Players and Masters, with a T3 at RBC Heritage sandwiched in between. McGirt has made the cut 5-of-6 tries at Colonial, albeit without a top-20, though he is far more accomplished this year. He's 27th in ball striking, 29th in GIR, 18th in P4P, T62 in proximity and even a respectable 84th in SGP.
Scott Piercy - $7,000
Here's a hunch pick, and this is the place to take some gambles. Piercy had been having a horrid 2017 until finding something last week at the Nelson, where he tied for 20th. That was his first top-30 since November. His putting has been killing him, but he was T26 in putting average at Las Colinas. On the season, he's T20 in proximity, T45 in ball striking and 63rd in GIR.
Blayne Barber - $6,900
Barber has not missed cut in a stroke-play event since February and is coming off a T16 at TPC Sawgrass (albeit a course he was very familiar with). Barber was T34 in his Colonial debut last year. He sits 12th on Tour in SGP, T12 in proximity and 68th in ball striking.
Cameron Tringale - $6,400
Normally a good putter, Tringale has been plagued by poor play on the greens this season (134th in SGP). However, he's coming off a T35 at The Players and a T9 last week at Las Colinas, where he was 12th in putting average and 19th in SGP. This will be his seventh go-round at Colonial where he's missed only one cut, though he owns nothing better than a T43 two years ago.
