DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

AT&T BYRON NELSON

Purse: $7.5M
Winner's Share: $1.35M
FedExCup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Irving, Texas
Course: TPC Four Seasons Resort at Las Colinas
Yardage: 7,166
Par: 70
2016 champion: Sergio Garcia

Tournament Preview

This will be the 49th year that the tournament bears the name of the legendary Byron Nelson, who won the first edition back in 1944. It will also be the last played at the TPC Four Seasons Resort before heading to Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas next year. So soak up all the info and course insight we have to offer, then throw it away, because it will be useless in 2018.

A look back at recent tournaments shows a wide range of skill sets are required and can get the job done at Las Colinas, something we'll expand on in the Key Stats and Champion's Profile below. The first thing about the course that jumps out is that it's a par-70, with only two par-5s, both on the easy side. The same can be said for the four par-3s. The three hardest holes are all par-4s: No. 3 at 528 yards, No. 12 at 455 and No. 15 at 504. You'd like to see a little more difficulty late in the round, but the par-4, 429-yard 18th does come in at the fourth-hardest (hint: par-4 performance will be something we'll be focusing on). The fairways are narrow throughout -- averaging only 29 yards at the 300-yard mark -- though the last two years the track still ranked among the easiest on Tour.

For the week following The PLAYERS and at the onset of the run-up to the U.S. Open, the tournament does have a fairly strong field. Four of the top-six in the OWGR are on hand -- No. 1 Dustin Johnson, No. 4 Jason Day, No. 5 Sergio Garcia, who on Monday leap-frogged No. 6 Jordan Spieth -- with five more golfers from the top-25. Masters champion Garcia is a two-time winner here.

Wind is always a factor at Las Colinas, and at Texas courses in general. This year, the forecast does not call for excessive wind. But there's a chance of rain all four days, and on the weekend it's nearly 100 percent. As of Tuesday morning, it doesn't appear there will be enough rain during the first two rounds to try to set a lineup based on tee times.

Key Stats to Winning at TPC Four Seasons (in order of importance)

• Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Putting Average/Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Performance
• Scrambling

Past Champions

2016 - Sergio Garcia
2015 - Steven Bowditch
2014 - Brendon Todd
2013 - Sangmoon Bae
2012 - Jason Dufner
2011 - Keegan Bradley
2010 - Jason Day
2009 - Rory Sabbatini
2008 - Adam Scott
2007 - Scott Verplank

Champion's Profile

As we look back over the past few years, there are multiple ways to win here, with both premier ball strikers and wedge specialists rewarded. But we do see some trends: Five of the past six winners have finished top-10 in GIR and four of the six have finished in the top-two in putting average (putts per GIR). Three of the six were top-five in scrambling and, focusing on 2014 alone, seven of the 10 highest finishers were among the scrambling leaders. But overall, accuracy off the tee counts, distance surely helps even though the course is only 7,166 yards, and GIR is always paramount. With the greens rather large and featuring undulations, navigating the tricky setup could be the difference on Sunday.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 Values

Dustin Johnson - $12,500 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 9-2)

Yes, the high price made us think twice, but Johnson has four top-10s in eight trips to Las Colinas, and he was 12th last year. Now he's playing the best golf of his life, ranking first on Tour in GIR, first in SGT2G and on and on. Even the lack of par-5s shouldn't hurt, as Johnson is T8 in par-4 performance (P4P).

Sergio Garcia - $11,000 (12-1)

Garcia has not only overtaken Jordan Spieth in the world rankings, he's the No. 2 choice on the DraftKings board, $200 ahead of Spieth. A case certainly can be made for Spieth, but there's just something off about his game -- albeit something that can be fixed this week. But Garcia showed more than we expected last week in his first start as Masters champion. He's also fifth on Tour in GIR, second in SGT2G, 27th in P4P. In his victory here last year, Garcia even putted well, tying for sixth in putts longer than 10 feet.

Brooks Koepka - $1/0,200 (15-1)

Koepka was runner-up to Garcia last year, 16th the year before, and he missed the cut in his 2014 debut, so he's obviously trending in the right direction. Likewise, he seems completely past his awful play from the winter and early spring with four top-20s in a row, including T16 last week at The Players. Koepka's season-long stats are not indicative of his recent surge, though he's been a good putter through it all: 14th in SGP.

Tony Finau - $9,200 (30-1)

At a significantly lower cost than the first three guys, Finau is an attractive choice. One of the best on Tour tee-to-green (fourth in GIR, sixth in SGT2G), Finau is held back by his putter. But he managed a top-10 in his 2015 debut here, and followed it up with a T12 last year. And he's now a (somewhat) better putter. He's also T5 in P4P.

Tier 2 Values

Jason Dufner - $8,800 (30-1)

Dufner offers a nice mix of good play before and after arriving at the green. He's 67th in GIR and 47th in SGT2G, while also 30th in putting average and 11th in P4P. Dufner has made the cut the past six years here, winning it all in 2012, and he hasn't missed a cut anywhere since January.

Charley Hoffman - $8,500 (30-1)

There are few golfers associated with Texas as much as Hoffman, and he's bound to be a popular pick this week. He's had success at all the Lone Star Tour stops, including Las Colinas, where he was T12 last year and runner-up in 2015. Hoffman's numbers don't jump out -- notably, he's 34th in SGT2G and 54th in PA -- but there's something to be said for getting the job done, no matter how it's done.

Russell Henley - $8,300 (30-1)

Henley missed the cut here last year, but is on his game much more-so now. Henley tied for 22nd in his maiden visit in 2015. He's 22nd in GIR, 24th in SGT2G, 13th in SGP and 14th in P4P. He's also shown an affinity for wind play, winning the Honda a few years back.

Byeong-Hun An - $8,000 (60-1)

An is 11-for-11 in stroke-play cuts this season. Of course, for an $8,000 price tag, we need more than simply getting in four rounds. An is coming off a T8 at the Wells Fargo, his second top-10 of 2017. He also acquitted himself nicely with a T33 at the Masters, not bad for someone who can't putt worth a lick. An is only 99th in GIR, but 21st in SGT2G. This is An's Byron Nelson debut.

Graham DeLaet - $7,600 (60-1)

DeLaet missed the cut last year, but strung together three top-25s before that, two of them top-10s. His recent play has been all or nothing, with four top-25s and three missed cuts in his past seven starts. Like Dufner, he offers good news on multiple fronts: DeLaet is 15th in GIR, 35th in SGT2G, 23rd in SGP and T48 in P4P.

Sung Kang - $7,400 (125-1)

Kang is currently playing good golf. He's made five straight cuts, three of them top-11s, and is coming off a more-than-respectable T30 at The PLAYERS. Earlier this season in Texas, he was runner-up in Houston and T6 in San Antonio. Kang is 35th in GIR, 43rd in SGT2G, T24 in P4P and, impressively, 46th in SGP. Kang missed the cut in his first two forays to Las Colinas a number of years back, but was T34 in his return last year.

J.T. Poston - $7,300 (100-1)

Poston delivered for us last time we picked him, so here we are again. He's playing so well that he's no longer a field bet at golfodds.com. The rookie hasn't missed a cut since January, most recently recording another top-25 at the Wells Fargo. He's 70th in SGT2G, 27th in PA and T68 in P4P. He's never played Las Colinas.

Smylie Kaufman - $7,100 (60-1)

Don't look at the numbers. Just don't. Every single metric has three digits -- meaning, Kaufman is no better than 100th in any relevant stat (and many irrelevant ones, too). This is all about recent play, which, truth be told, is the most important consideration each and every week. After a horrible succession of missed cuts, partly injury related, Kaufman has posted three good stroke-play events in a row, including T12 at The PLAYERS to follow up a T5 at the Wells Fargo. Kaufman is also a Byron Nelson rookie this week.

Long-Shot Values

Nick Taylor - $6,900 (Field, 13-4)

Yes, the name sounds more like the lead singer in a boy band than a pro golfer, but Taylor has been getting it done on the course (we were gonna say, "hitting all the right notes," but that would've been cheesy). Taylor arrives at Las Colinas for the first time on the heels of three straight stroke-play top-25s, including T8 at the Wells Fargo. He's ranked around 90th in GIR and SGT2G, but he's a good scrambler, seated at 38th in scrambling and 61st in SG: around-the-green.

Billy Hurley III - $6,900 (Field, 13-4)

Hurley has made four straight cuts, including a T37 at San Antonio, a T8 at the Wells Fargo and even a T41 at The PLAYERS. Hurley made our picks because of his short game. He's 62nd in scrambling, 53rd in SG: around-the-green, and 27th in SGP. Hurley shot three rounds in the 60s here last year, but a 73 on Saturday relegated him to T41. He did it for four rounds three years ago, tying for 16th.

Jonathan Randolph - $6,700 (Field, 13-4)

Randolph has run off four straight made cuts, including a T8 at the Wells Fargo. His numbers aren't great, but they are improving of late. He's T94 in P4P, 75th in putting average, and he finished T34 in his debut at Las Colinas two years ago.

Zac Blair - $6,600 (Field, 13-4)

Blair imploded on No. 17 last week at TPC Sawgrass to miss the cut, but we're coming back for more. Before that, Blair posted two top-12s in recent weeks. He's T14 on Tour in P4P, pretty remarkable for such a short hitter. He's second in scrambling, 34th in SGP, and he owns a 16th-place finish here two years ago.