Desert Classic Preview: Rahm Ready to Repeat

The PGA Tour heads to the mainland for the Desert Classic. You may remember this event as the Career Builder Challenge or the Humana Challenge, but most came to know this event simply as the "Bob Hope." If there's one thing we know about this event it's this – grinders need not apply. If you want to contend this week, you'd better be going low; I mean really low. Oh, and this is the start of the quirky "course rotation" events. Pay attention as some courses tend to play easier than others.

This week: Desert Classic – PGA West Stadium Course, La Quinta, Calif.

Last Year: Jon Rahm shot a final-round 67 on his way to a playoff victory over Andrew Landry.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (6-1)

Rahm is not only the defending champ this week but the odds-on favorite. There is plenty of middle-tier fire power this week in the field, but not much elite talent. With that in mind, Rahm looks like a decent value as his game looks to be close (a top-10 at the Sentry) and obviously has a good track record at this event.

Justin Rose (9-1)

Rose is the best golfer in the field, but he doesn't have the track record here that Rahm has, which is why he's the second favorite. Rose is a bit of an unknown this week as we haven't seen him play recently and he hasn't played this event since 2010, and missed the cut that year. Rose is one of the more reliable players on the PGA Tour, but he carries too much risk this week.

Patrick Cantlay (16-1)

A lot is expected of Cantlay this season as he seems to be improving on a yearly basis. Cantlay was top 40 in birdies per round last season on the PGA Tour, which means he'll have no problem going low, but as the third favorite and no positive history at this event, he doesn't carry much value at this price.

MID-TIER GOLFERS

Adam Hadwin (25-1)

Not a name you would expect to see among the favorites, but get a peek at his track record here and suddenly it makes sense. Hadwin has finished T3, runner-up and T6 in his last three starts at this event, finishing no worse than 19-under in each start. His poor performance at the Sony last week is of no concern either as he's never fared well there.

Aaron Wise (33-1)

Wise is gradually getting used to the courses for this event, with a T34 in 2017 and a T17 last year. If you are looking for golfers who can score, look no further than Wise, who finished 12th on the PGA Tour last season in birdie per round. Wise is coming of an uninspired T27 at the Sentry, but the game is a little different in Hawaii and shouldn't necessarily affect how you view someone for the West Coast Swing.

Hudson Swafford (40-1)

Swafford picked up his first and only PGA Tour win at this event in 2017 and at the time, it looked like he was on his way to bigger and better things. Since, however, things haven't panned out like many of us expected. That said, Swafford has shown signs recently that he may be getting back to the form that helped him win here. If that's the case, there's a ton of value at his price.

LONGSHOTS

Joaquin Niemann (55-1)

Niemann is going to win somewhere this season and if you could get 55-1 for each start, you'd show a profit at some point. His odds will shrink as the season wears on and the betting public realizes how good he is, but for now, he has a ton of value. Niemann has yet to play this event, but that was the case often last season and it rarely slowed him.

Bill Haas (80-1)

2018 was not a good year for Haas, on and off the golf course. But he's been too good for too long to simply just disappear. He won't be peak Haas ever again, but he's got enough in the tank to play at a very high level during a given week. Considering his track record here, this could be one of those weeks. Haas has two wins, a runner-up and five total top-10s in his last nine starts here.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Optimal pick: Jon Rahm - This was the optimal spot to use him last year, and it's the best spot to use him this year as well. His form is good, he's the defending champ and, quite honestly, there's no reason to hold him for a major until he picks up his play during majors.

Buyer beware: Justin Rose - While I'm not in the business of saving guys for majors anymore, I might make an exception for Rose. Unlike most elite players on the PGA Tour, there aren't several non-major spots that Rose is a lock, like DJ is at Pebble or Matsuyama in Scottsdale. With that in mind, you might as well save Rose for a place and time where you know he'll show up.

Last week: Marc Leishman (T3) - $307,200; Season - $1,942,495

This week: Adam Hadwin - When there's a lock on the board, take the lock, but I've had some bad luck with Rahm the last couple years and I never consider him a lock. With that in mind, I'm going to go down the rung a bit and grab Hadwin, who just has a knack for this event. With any luck, he'll fly under the radar and I can get some separation from the pack.

FANDUEL PICKS

High/Mid/Low: Jon Rahm ($11,900)/Adam Hadwin ($10,700)/Hudson Swafford ($8,200)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Marc Leishman - (T3); Streak - 1

This week: Adam Hadwin - Are there safer picks than Hadwin? Maybe, but the guy is a combined 59-under over his past 12 rounds here; he's not going to suddenly lose his feel for the courses in this rotation. This is likely the only spot to use Hadwin this season.