Byron Nelson Preview: Still the Man to Beat

When Jordan Spieth opened with a 64 last week at Colonial, it could have easily been curtains for the rest of the field. After all, this was the same guy that stormed to the lead at Augusta and never let up. But something strange happened this time around. Spieth uncharacteristically blew-up on Friday and once again, everybody else was in play. Spieth's run at the Masters came at the expense of the best golfers in the world, so when he struggled to run away at Colonial, it left more than a few people scratching their heads.

This is the part where I'd normally write something akin to "golf is tough" or "this isn't easy," but that's not the direction I'm going this week because even though Spieth blew up on Friday with a 73, he was still right there, with a chance to win on Sunday. If anything, Spieth's failure last week showed us just how much talent he has, but it also showed the one thing he needs to improve ... the mental game. While he didn't use those exact words after his final round Sunday, he did admit to using the wrong club on his approach to the 16th green. Sure, one mistake does not make him mentally weak, far from it, but when talking about Spieth, we aren't asking him to win every now and then. We are asking him to be the next big superstar in this game and big superstars close on Sunday.

Spieth will get another crack at winning this week at the Byron Nelson, and even if he blows up on Thursday or Friday, you can expect to see him playing late Sunday afternoon.

This week: Byron Nelson - TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas, Irving, Texas

Last Year: Brendon Todd shot a final-round 66 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Mike Weir.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Jordan Spieth

He's on the short list for best player on the planet, and even though he didn't win last week, he furthered the notion that he can play with the best when he nearly came back to win at Colonial. Spieth has yet to miss a cut at this event, and even though he doesn't have any high-end finishes, he's still the man to beat this week.

Jason Day

Day has pretty much everything going for him this week. He's playing relatively well, and his track record at this event is solid. Day won this event in 2010 and followed with top-10s in 2011 and 2012. He "struggled" in 2013 when he earned only a T27, but if that's the worst he can do, then he should be on your short list this week -- he's on mine.

Dustin Johnson

Johnson is playing some of the best golf of his life this year, and while this generally isn't the best time of year to use DJ, he seems to be at a different player now. DJ has played pretty well here with three top-10s in his last four tries.

Keegan Bradley

Bradley's track record here is impressive, and if this were a couple years ago, he'd be higher on the list. But Bradley has failed to take his game to the next level the last couple seasons, and I'm not exactly sure what he is at this point. That said, he's never finished outside the top-30 here, so the risk is low and the upside high.

Charley Hoffman

Hoffman has been all over the place at this event, he has three top-10s in eight tries but three MCs as well. The risk is a little high for someone on this list, but he's coming off a good effort last week at the Colonial, so a top-10 seems more likely than a MC this week.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Mike Weir

We were collectively hopeful that last year's Byron Nelson effort was a sign of things to come for Mike Weir, but after his runner-up showing last year, Weir again fell into his bad habits. 12 months later it's painfully clear that Weir is not back to his old self, and though a return to this event is bound to bring back some good memories, it simply won't be enough this week.

Jason Dufner

Dufner is a former champion here and his overall track record at this event is pretty solid. But his track record at the Colonial was pretty solid as well, and it didn't seem to matter as he failed to crack the top 40. Dufner just doesn't have his best game now.

Hunter Mahan

A couple things working against Mahan this week. First, he hasn't played here in four years. That's a red flag in my book as there must be something about this layout that he doesn't like. Second, although he's made five of seven cuts here, he's never cracked the top 40. Probably explains the first issue.

Zach Johnson

During just about any other week on the PGA Tour, a top-20 would have been a decent showing for Johnson, but a T19 at Colonial was a big letdown last week. This week he returns to a site where he hasn't played in nine years, and the last time he did play here he missed the cut.

Ken Duke

Duke has a decent track record here with two top-10s in eight tries, but his game is way off and the goal this week should simply be to make the cut. Duke has missed his last six cuts on the PGA Tour and a seventh looks likely this week.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Zach Johnson (T19) - $78,780; Season - $3,302,592

This week: Jordan Spieth - If you have everyone at your disposal this week, then perhaps Day is the pick, but I do not, so I am pulling the trigger on Spieth this week. I'd love to save Spieth for a major, but honestly, he has a better chance to win this week than at any of the final three majors, and the purse is pretty decent at this event.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 2,968
Rank: 15,131

This Week:

Group A: Brooks Koepka, Ryan Palmer

Group B: Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Marc Leishman

Group C: Charley Hoffman, Brendon Todd

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Bo Van Pelt (MC); Streak - 0

This week: Marc Leishman - Leishman is actually a fairly sound sleeper pick this week. He's only missed one cut here in six starts and has made the top 15 in each of the five starts where he made it to the weekend.