Betting on Golf: WM Phoenix Open

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Published on February 8, 2022

WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview

One of the most exciting tournaments of the year is here, as the PGA Tour goes to Arizona for "The Greatest Show on Grass."

The WM Phoenix Open is often the highest-attended event on the calendar, and this year's event also features an excellent field, one that is headlined by world No. 1, Arizona State alum and tournament favorite Jon Rahm, who checks in at 6-1 odds. The list of players also features six of the top 10 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking. Last year, Brooks Koepka, at 50-1 odds, picked up his second win at this event, going five-under-par over the last six holes to win by one stroke over K.H. Lee and Xander Schauffele.

TPC Scottsdale plays as a traditional par-71 at approximately 7,300 yards. The winning score typically ranges between 17-to-19 under-par. As we saw last year, a lot can happen over the finishing stretch of holes, with the par-5s on Nos. 13 and 15 that are both reachable in two and the driveable par-4 17th all providing eagle opportunities. We can't not mention the party at the 16th hole, but it's a fairly benign par-3 that typically plays as a short iron or wedge.

Players will need to be in good form with their ball striking, as the winner ranked top-20 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee each of the past five years and either first or second in SG: Approach in four of the last five. I'm specifically targeting players that excel from 150-200 yards, as we will see a lot of approach shots in that range this week.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 8:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Taking out the Trash

The following five golfers, with a minimum of three appearances, have averaged the most birdies per round at TPC Scottsdale since 2017.

Although Thomas is still in search of his first win in the event, he's been one of the most consistent golfers here in recent years, with four consecutive top-20s, including a pair of third-place results. He's coming off a disappointing weekend in his last start two weeks ago in which he finished T20 after being tied at the top at the halfway point, but this is a great spot for him to right the ship. He is deserving of his standing as the second choice on the board at 10-1. A player on the list who has hoisted the trophy here is Fowler, the 2019 winner who also has a pair of runner-ups to his credit. The question with him is, can his tremendous track record here outweigh his form? He's opened the year with back-to-back missed cuts after recording a T3 finish at The CJ Cup.

No Garbage in this Group

These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds.

As noted, ball striking will be a key factor this week, and once again we see List at the top. He finally picked up his first PGA Tour victory at age 37 in his last start, and he will attempt to follow that up at place he's played well at. Over his last four appearances, List recorded three top-30 finishes. As difficult as it is to go back-to-back, I'm surprised List isn't getting more respect from the oddsmakers, as he checks in as the the 25th choice at 60-1. Henley is drawing their attention, as he is listed at 30-1 and rightfully so. The veteran is on the plus side in every Strokes Gained category and is dominating with his iron play, sitting second in SG: Approach. It's hard to find many players in better form, as he has not missed a cut this season and has posted three top-15 results over his last four events.

Outright Picks

Hideki Matsuyama (14-1)

Matsuyama will likely be a popular one-and-done selection this week, and it's hard to argue with that. He's a two-time winner of the event and course history tends to mean more here than just about anywhere else. It seems like all Matsuyama does lately is win, as he took home the trophy three times in the last year and twice in his last four starts alone. He seems to nearly always be in contention when he has a decent putting week.

Sam Burns (30-1)

Although the field is strong, you won't convince me that Burns should only be the 10th choice on the board. He's shown himself to be a top-10 golfer over the past year, and he owns a nice combination of distance and accuracy with his driver. Plus, he's 21st in SG: Approach this season. He should be more in the 20-1 to 25-1 range.

Keith Mitchell (70-1)

Could we see a long shot enter the winner's circle for a fourth straight week? Mitchell is another player who has turned the corner since late last summer but doesn't seem to be talked about much. He's coming off a T12 at Pebble Beach despite losing strokes in the short game, and he's been elite with the driver this season, ranking eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee.

Top-10 Wagers

Aaron Wise (5-1)

Coming off a top-10 hit with Joel Dahmen last week, I'll look toward another player that is trending in the right direction in Wise. He's starting to look like he did during his rookie season four years ago when he happened to win for the first time on Tour. Despite going up against some strong fields, Wise recorded a pair of top-10s and a top-15 in three straight starts this past fall, and he is gaining strokes in every category this season.

Denny McCarthy (7-1)

McCarthy has been playing too well to overlook at this number, as he's turned a corner, notching a top-20 finish in six of his 10 starts. His ball-striking numbers have been much improved as of late, and his play on and around the greens is some of the best on Tour.

Matt Wallace (11-1)

Wallace is making his first PGA Tour start of the year, but he did play a couple times recently overseas and made the cut in both appearances. Because of his streaky play and tendency not to play a full schedule stateside, he seems to get overlooked despite ranking 34th in SG: Tee-to-Green last season. He was a top-50 player less than a year ago and has loads of upside if he's in form.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Viktor Hovland (+100) over Patrick Cantlay

This is an interesting matchup in that both players are in good form and there's not much course history to draw from. Cantlay will be making his first appearance, and Hovland missed the cut in 2020 but did gain strokes both off the tee and on approach. At even money, I have to lean towards Hovland, who is a better ball striker and who won in three of his last five events worldwide.

Keegan Bradley (+100) over Pat Perez

Perez is a Scottsdale resident and knows the course well, but he missed the cut here last year and his last made cut came in 2015. I don't expect him to keep his hot streak going, as he has struggled mightily off the tee this season. Bradley, on the other hand, has made four consecutive cuts at TPC Scottsdale and is the more reliable option in the one-on-one format.