This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
After a brief stopover in Motown, the PGA Tour heads to my back yard this week. Well, more specifically, it's about a driver-nine iron ... then 240 more drivers, but you get the idea – it's pretty close. I covered the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour for several years and one thing I vividly remember is how easy this course can be if the wind isn't blowing. The folks running this first-time event were aware of that when they set the wheels in motion a year ago, so they've obviously made some adjustments in preparation for the best in the world. We can only hope that it's at least a little more difficult to score this week than last week. Unfortunately, it's the second consecutive week on a new course, and we are once again left with only recent form as a predictor of performance. That didn't really pan out last week, but who knows, maybe things will be different this week and one or two big names will show up.
This Week: The 3M Open – TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minn.
Last Year: none
FAVORITES
Brooks Koepka (7-1)
Considering Koepka plays his best golf in the toughest conditions while under the most pressure, this doesn't seem to be a good spot to ride him as the heavy favorite. Two weeks from now you can bet that Koepka will be ready to go, but will he be focused this week? The numbers say no. Koepka just
After a brief stopover in Motown, the PGA Tour heads to my back yard this week. Well, more specifically, it's about a driver-nine iron ... then 240 more drivers, but you get the idea – it's pretty close. I covered the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour for several years and one thing I vividly remember is how easy this course can be if the wind isn't blowing. The folks running this first-time event were aware of that when they set the wheels in motion a year ago, so they've obviously made some adjustments in preparation for the best in the world. We can only hope that it's at least a little more difficult to score this week than last week. Unfortunately, it's the second consecutive week on a new course, and we are once again left with only recent form as a predictor of performance. That didn't really pan out last week, but who knows, maybe things will be different this week and one or two big names will show up.
This Week: The 3M Open – TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minn.
Last Year: none
FAVORITES
Brooks Koepka (7-1)
Considering Koepka plays his best golf in the toughest conditions while under the most pressure, this doesn't seem to be a good spot to ride him as the heavy favorite. Two weeks from now you can bet that Koepka will be ready to go, but will he be focused this week? The numbers say no. Koepka just hasn't performed like an elite golfer outside of the majors this season and as such, his price is too steep this week.
Jason Day (11-1)
Much like last week, the favorites are the big names because, well, there's nothing else to go on! The big names did not come through last week, but we have a different group this week, and even though the course should give up plenty of birdies, there's no guarantee it will be as easy as it was last week. Day isn't in the best form entering this week, but he'll at least show up during non-major events from time to time.
Hideki Matsuyama (11-1)
Matsuyama played fairly well last week on his way to a T13. He hasn't had his best form recently, but he's getting close. Close enough that maybe if everything goes right, he could win this week. Most OAD users have burnt Matsuyama already, but if you still have him, this might be a good spot to deploy him.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Joaquin Niemann (33-1)
Right away you can see how the odds are laid out this week. There is a group at the top, then a big gap that separates it from the middle tier. Niemann was 40-1 last week and once again played well. It's a big leap from playing well to winning, but Niemann appears to be narrowing that gap. Even if he doesn't win, he should again show well on a course where no one golfer has an advantage.
Sungjae Im (33-1)
It's been a season of highs and lows for Im, and he's currently on one of his highs. Im posted a T7 at the Canadian Open and followed that with a pair of T21s. Im is the type of golfer you should look at this week. He's not elite, but he's shown the ability to finish well. He's also hungry and won't take any weeks off.
Rory Sabbatini (40-1)
This run has to end at some point, right? Sabbatini has been on fire (relatively) the last couple months, posting five top-10s in his last eight starts. His most recent start resulted in a T3 last week in Detroit. With similar conditions this week – i.e. new course, low scores – there's reason to believe Sabbatini can show well again this week.
LONGSHOTS
Phil Mickelson (50-1)
I've witnessed Bernhard Langer run roughshod over this course on many occasions, and although it's been lengthened from its Champions Tour form, it's still there for the taking ... no matter your age. Mickelson is not in great form, but he's always in the conversation when we talk about guys who can go low and score on easy courses. Perhaps he's received some advice from his older peers who have already played this course several times as well. Whatever the case, Mickelson seems like a guy who can take advantage of this layout.
Mackenzie Hughes (50-1)
Hughes has quietly put together a nice run in his last four starts. He posted a T8 at the Charles Schwab in late-May and followed that with a pair of top-25s in the three starts that followed. Hughes has started quickly in each of his last four events, with his worst score being a 68 at the Schwab. As is the case with most golfers fighting to stay inside the top 125, he lacks the consistency over four rounds to finish high. He's getting close, however, and this could be the week for another high-end finish, like his runner-up in Punta Cana earlier this year.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Jason Day - Once again this week, it'll be tough to figure out who will be highly owned, but considering there are only a handful of elite players in the field and no one in their right mind would burn Koepka this week, Day should be fairly popular. If the course is playing as easy as I think it will, it might be wise to look somewhere in the middle tier this week.
Moderately Owned Pick: Patrick Reed - Reed is coming off a good showing last week in Detroit and is returning to a state where he's had a lot of success. Granted, that success came on a different course, but knowing this state, I'm going to go ahead and guess that Reed will have more support from the crowd this week than most weeks because of his Ryder Cup performance in 2016. Will the added support be the boost he needs to get back in the winner's circle?
Lightly Owned Pick: Joaquin Niemann - Although he's been on a roll lately, Niemann still didn't have much support last week. With a deeper field this week, his ownership will likely remain flat. Here's another good opportunity to gain some ground on the competition as Niemann appears to be locked in.
Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - As much as it would benefit my fantasy teams to have Koepka win this week, this just doesn't line up as a good spot. If scoring is easy, he loses a major advantage over the field, and all signs point to a very low score winning this week. If you still have Koepka, I would save him for the final major or a FedEx event.
Last Week: Billy Horschel (T17) - $105,850; Season - $6,609,597
This Week: Joaquin Niemann - Unlike last week, several options look appealing. This week I am focused on the mid-tier golfers listed above. Any one of them would work in this spot, but I'm going with Niemann over Im and Sabbatini on a hunch that he's about to break through.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Patrick Reed ($10,700)/Rory Sabbatini ($10,000)/Mackenzie Hughes ($8,700)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last Week: Billy Horschel - (T17); Streak - 3
This week: Rory Sabbatini - While I like Niemann in the OAD format, Sabbatini is more trustworthy. Sabbatini has posted a lot of high-end finishes lately, but just as impressive, he hasn't missed a cut since February. Survivor picks are always tough on new tracks, but there's nothing to indicate that Sabbatini will have a hard time making the cut this week.
