2025 The Genesis Invitational Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on February 12, 2025

The Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

The final event of the 'West Coast Swing' concludes in San Diego for the third signature event of the year at Torrey Pines. Traditionally held at Riviera County Club in Los Angeles, the devastating wildfires shifted this year's event to Torrey Pines, which hosted the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago. Scottie Scheffler headlines as the tournament favorite for this 72-player field that will have a 36-hole cut down to the top-50 and anyone within 10 shots of the lead. Last year, Hideki Matsuyama won by three strokes over Luke List and Will Zalatoris for his ninth Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday

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Course Overview

Par 72, 7,765 yards

These are the average rankings of the champions at Torrey Pines since 2021:

SG: Off-the-Tee: 28.5
SG: Approach: 10.3
SG: Around-the-Green: 24.5
SG: Putting: 9.2
SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.5
Driving Distance: 34.3
Driving Accuracy: 33.8

Unlike the Farmers a couple weeks ago, all four rounds will be held at Torrey Pines South this time around, and I also included stats from the U.S. Open that was held here in 2021. This is always one of the toughest venues on Tour as that U.S. Open was won at six-under and we saw Harris English win at eight-under last month. Already an incredibly long course at nearly 7,800 yards, the weather Thursday and Friday calls rain and cold temperatures which will make it play even longer than usual. Off the tee, players are faced with narrow landing zones as the fairways average only 28 yards wide and are surrounded by four inch rough. With seven of the 10 par-4s playing over 450 yards, players will be forced to pull driver often. Overall, Torrey is going to test every club in the bag, so I'm definitely look towards players that are well-rounded. I'll also be targeting golfers that approach it well from 200+ yards due to the length of the course as well as those that rank well in bogey avoidance and have a good history at tougher courses.

Torrey Pines South Savants

The following players have the lowest scoring average at Torrey Pines South over the last five years.

It may surprise some to see Stevens at the top of the list, but the third year Tour pro has shown an affinity for the South Course and that most recently led to a runner-up finish to Harris English in which Stevens led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's a longshot at 75-1 odds against a much stronger field, but his upward trajectory makes him someone to keep a close eye on. A little higher up the oddsboard we find another former runner-up at the Farmers in Bradley (55-1), who posted a solid T15 here last month. He took last week off following a disappointing week at Pebble which was preceded by three consecutive top-15s to begin the year. With Bradley's all-around game and ability to elevate against strong fields, I wouldn't be surprised if he was a factor.

Firing at Flagsticks

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Thomas cemented is position at the top of the list with a hole out from 103 on the 72nd hole in Scottsdale, marking the 10th consecutive tournament that he's gained strokes on approach. That's led to four finishes of T6 or better, although his winless drought is nearing three years. Across five events at Torrey Pines, Thomas has four top-25s with a best finish of T10 in 2014. Another player in good form with his irons is Matsuyama, who enters the tournament as the fifth choice on the board at 22-1 odds. He's cooled off since winning the opening event of the season, but his track record at the venue overall is solid with 10 straight made cuts and four top-15s. Matsuyama will need to straighten things out with his driver, however, as he's struggled off the tee the last four events.

The Genesis Invitational Bets: Outright Picks

Tony Finau (40-1)

Finau has saved some of his best golf for Torrey Pines, where he has six top-10 finishes over his last nine showings at the Farmers. Surprisingly, he shot 77 at the North Course three weeks ago, so he'll be glad that it's not part of the rotation this time around.

Viktor Hovland (50-1)

Hovland certainly carries risk, but I'm willing to accept that at 50-1 in a limited field. He opened with a 65 at Pebble in his last start, ultimately finishing T22 due to a subpar week with his short game. When he's at his best, there aren't many players better. Hovland finished T2 in his last start at the Farmers in 2021.

Russell Henley (50-1)

We know the rough will be thick and there are few golfers that drive it straighter than Henley. He's only played this event once but outside of being a shorter hitter, he's so strong everywhere else. He's coming off back-to-back top-10s and was seventh in SG: Approach at Pebble.

The Genesis Invitational Bets: Placement Wagers

Gary Woodland
Top-10 Finish: 6-1

Woodland is quietly rounding back into form as two of his three top-25s in 2024 came over his last four starts. He's carried that momentum into the new year with three consecutive top-25s. His ball striking has been in solid form and that'll be important at Torrey.

Sepp Straka
Top-5 Finish: 7-1

Speaking of players in good form, something has gotten into Straka this year (perhaps some Ryder Cup motivation) as he's followed up his win in Palm Springs with T7 and 15th place finishes the last two weeks. He's emerged as one of the best iron players in the world.

Daniel Berger
Top-5 Finish: 11-1

I hit a top-10 bet with Berger last week, so why not go back to the well? Even with Thomas Detry winning by seven, it was Berger who led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. The inconsistent putting is the only thing holding him back.

The Genesis Invitational Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Shane Lowry (-110) over Robert MacIntyre

After going 2-0 with matchups last week, let's start with Lowry, whose consistent nature makes him a great target for matchups as he posted top-15s in all six of his DP World Tour starts this fall. Most recently, he's coming off a runner-up finish to Rory McIlroy at Pebble, where MacIntyre finished T40. He also missed the cut in his only start at the Farmers last year.

Sahith Theegala (-110) over Akshay Bhatia

Theegala hasn't looked quite like himself to start the year, but I can't imagine that lasts much longer and playing in his home state at a venue he finished T4 at in 2023 is as good a place to turn it around as any. He also had his best ball striking numbers of the year last week in Phoenix. Bhatia hasn't shown much since last July, failing to post a top-10 across his last nine Tour starts making him a fade for me here.

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