2025 The American Express Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on January 15, 2025

The American Express Betting Preview

Following two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour heads to Palm Springs for the start of the 'West Coast Swing' at this week's The American Express. The longtime Bob Hope Classic includes a pro-am portion and the 156-player field rotates between three courses and the cut occurs after 54 holes. With Scottie Scheffler withdrawing last week and Xander Schauffele pulling out Monday, Sungjae Im is the tournament favorite at 12-1 odds. Last year, amateur Nick Dunlap (300-1) pulled off the longshot win by one stroke over Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Wednesday

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Course Overview

These are the rankings of the tournament champions since 2020.

SG: Off-the-Tee: 24.8
SG: Approach: 8.2
SG: Around-the-Green: 36.4
SG: Putting: 17.6
Driving Distance: 29
Driving Accuracy: 29.4

Golfers will rotate between La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the PGA West Stadium Course the first three days and then those that make the cut will all play the final round at the Stadium Course. The latter is the only one that tracks strokes gained data, and all three venues play short as par-72s at under 7,200 yards. Famously dubbed by Jon Rahm a few years ago as a 'putting contest', this is one of the easiest tournaments on Tour with the winning score averaging 25-under over the last five years. Fairways are moderately wide and surrounded by short rough, so there's not much of a premium on driving play as evidenced by the metrics above. Outside of the par-5s, players are often faced with approaches inside of 100 yards. Don't be afraid to dig deep into the player pool this week as longshot winners are common, with four of the past six champions entering the week at 150-1 odds or higher.

Desert Dynamos

The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at the event over the last five years (minimum eight rounds).

2023 runner-up Thompson followed up his impressive debut with four rounds of 68 or better last year, although at this birdie-fest that was only good enough for a T21 finish. The third-year Tour pro is coming off a breakthrough campaign but did start the year slow in Hawaii. This is a good spot for Thompson to bounce back, and possibly even a little under the radar at 35-1 odds. Another player that has shown form here is Cantlay, who is a perfect 5-for-5 in made cuts as a professional at the AMEX with three top-10s. He's been a model of consistency since last summer with seven consecutive top-25s, but it does seem like it has been awhile since we've seen him contend for a title.

Elite Iron Play

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

With driving and around the green play being less of a factor this week, approach play is a good stat to key in on and Thomas has been as good as anyone in the field as of late. He's gained over a stroke per round in four of his last five tournaments and ranked 13th in SG: Approach last year. Thomas (14-1 odds) is coming off a T3 here last year and you could argue that he should be the favorite over Im. Much farther down the odds board we find Vegas, fresh off a solo fourth place finish in Maui in which he led the field in approach. The 2011 winner of the event has missed his last three cuts here, although he is playing his best golf in quite some time. Vegas tends to be a streaky putter, and he's capable of contending if he has a good week on the greens.

The American Express Bets: Outright Picks

Sam Burns (16-1)

It's easy to overlook Burns, but he's been trending in the right direction over the last several months with five consecutive top-15s that was highlighted by a shared runner-up in the playoffs. He also has a good track record here with two T6 finishes.

J.J. Spaun (55-1)

The question here will be whether or not Spaun can bounce back from a disappointing finish in which it looked like he was going to pick up his first Tour win Sunday, but at 55-1 I'm willing to take the chance. Spaun has been in great form since last summer with five top-10s across 14 starts, and he led the field in SG: Approach last week.

Brian Harman (60-1)

Harman has played solid golf in Palm Springs, posting six top-25s across his last eight trips including a pair of T3 finishes. I know he isn't at the same level as when he won the Open Championship in 2023, but that's more than accounted for in the odds and his game suits the courses.

The American Express Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Lucas Glover (11-2)

Glover had a reasonable start to the year with a T21 at Waialae, which followed a strong fall with two T3 results. I like his combination of accurate driving and strong iron play for success around the shorter tracks.

Matt Kuchar (8-1)

Kuchar missed the cut in his return to the event last year following a seven-year absence, where he previously had a pair of T2 results. He's often held back by his distance but we know that's not much of a deterrent here and the other aspects of his game are still above Tour average.

Lanto Griffin (12-1)

Griffin is my longshot play of the week. He posted four rounds in the 60s here in 2022 en route to a T3 finish. The veteran won the final stage of Q-school by three shots in December as he looks to carry that momentum early into 2025.

The American Express Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Wyndham Clark (-110) over Max Greyserman

I like Greyserman as much as the next guy but I still view Clark on a higher tier. He's bested Greyserman in the last four events they've both played in and also finished better than him at this event last year despite a poor week on the greens. Clark has a pair of top-20s at this event as his wedge play, putting and ability to take advantage of par-5s will fit the venues well.

Harry Hall (-110) over Cameron Young

Hall continues to play solid golf with five consecutive top-15s including back-to-back top-10s to start the year. He projects as a good course fit as an excellent approach player from inside 100 yards combined with being one of the best putters on Tour. Young's strength of distance isn't a big advantage here, either.

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