2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on January 29, 2025

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads north for this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - a signature event with an 80-player field that doesn't have a cut and has the feeling of being the kickoff of the year with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy making their first Tour starts of 2025. Players will rotate between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach the first two rounds for the 36-hole pro-am portion, with the latter hosting the weekend for the pros only. Last year, longshot Wyndham Clark (90-1) won a weather-shortened 54-hole tournament by one stroke over Ludvig Aberg for his third Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday

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Course Overview

Pebble Beach: Par 72, 6972 yards; Spyglass Hill: Par 72, 7,041 yards

These are the average rankings of the event champions since 2020.

SG: Off-the-Tee: 29.8
SG: Approach: 11.6
SG: Around-the-Green: 13.4
SG: Putting: 7.6
SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.8
Driving Distance: 30.4
Driving Accuracy: 35.8

This event has gone through some changes over the years as it used to be a full-field event with a three-course rotation and a 54-hole cut, however, the switch to being a signature event eliminated Monterey Peninsula, and a traditionally weaker field has become much stronger. One nice addition to this year's event is that Spyglass Hill will have strokes gained data for the first time. Both venues play short at approximately 7,000 yards with four par-5s, and as we can see from the statistics above, length and driving play in general aren't a huge factor here with players often hitting less than driver off the tee. Pebble has the smallest average green size on Tour, so there's a bigger emphasis on short game play than normal as players will need to scramble. I'll also be targeting good approach players, especially those that excel from inside 125 yards.

Pebble Beach Beasts

The following players have the lowest scoring average at the event over the last five years (minimum two appearances).

You can probably take this list with a grain of salt considering a lot of the top players haven't played here twice, but of those that have, Cantlay has the most consistent track record with four consecutive finishes of T11 or better highlighted by a T3 result in 2021. He's an easy golfer to make a case for as he's coming off a T5 finish in Palm Springs two weeks ago. Another player that will draw his share of attention is the defending champion in Clark, who caught fire with the putter in a third-round 60 to come from way behind to win. He comes into the week somewhat similarly to last year in just mediocre form, but his ability to elevate in signature events combined with making birdies in bunches cannot be overlooked at 55-1 odds.

Approach Specialists

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Matsuyama tops this list for a second straight week after leading the field in the category at Torrey Pines South last week, although the rest of his game let him down en route to a T32 result. He only bested seven golfers in his debut at this event last year, but he's also a much different golfer than a year ago. I like his value as the seventh choice on the board at 22-1 odds. One of the main storylines for the week is the return of Scheffler, who has been sidelined with a hand injury since the end of December. The oddsmakers don't seem to be too concerned as he's the overwhelming favorite at 4-1 and the lone golfer in the field with single digit odds. Prior to the injury, Scheffler cruised to a six-stroke win at the Hero World Challenge. He reportedly was clicking in his practice round Tuesday, so I don't have any concern with making him a target in his season debut.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Bets: Outright Picks

Sungjae Im (25-1)

The current narrative around Im is that he can't win as he's going on over three years from his last Tour victory. He puts himself in contention constantly though, so I think it's just a matter of time. Im is trending in right direction with a pair of top-5s already this year.

Sam Burns (35-1)

With the short game being an important factor this week, I like targeting Burns, who has proven to be one of the best putters in the world. He finished the playoffs in good form last year and is coming off a 10th place finish here last year. Burns just feels like he's flying under the radar when he shouldn't be.

Tom Kim (50-1)

Kim was in good form on TGL on Monday (that counts for something, right?), and we know he constantly rises to the occasion on the bigger stages. Iron play and driving accuracy continue to be his strengths, both of which should came in handy here.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Bets: Placement Wagers

Cameron Young
Top-10 Finish: 11-2

Young's stock has fallen quite a bit since his peak nearly two years ago, but I think it's dipped too far. His good putting weeks often lead to top-10s considering he's one of the longer drivers and a quality wedge player.

Nico Echavarria
Top-10 Finish: 8-1

Echavarria was outside the top-300 in the OWGR at the beginning of October, but a win and two other top-5s since has him inside the top-50 in the world. His solid all-around game and overall recent form makes him a nice value.

Denny McCarthy
Top-5 Finish: 11-1

Similar to Burns, I like having players with strong short games around these venues, which helped lead McCarthy to a T4 result here in 2023. He's gaining a whopping 1.74 strokes putting at Pebble since 2022 and his lack of distance isn't much of a detriment.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Tony Finau (+100) over Shane Lowry

Finau ranked in the top-10 in SG: Off-the-Tee and approach here last year but a poor week with his short game led to a middling finish. He's historically been a decent putter but has been cold to start the year. Lowry on the other hand isn't much better in that regard. He missed the cut at Torrey last week as well as the last time he played this event. I'll take Finau at even money.

Max Greyserman (-110) over Russell Henley

Henley is a fade for me this week as he's never played all that well at the event. Last year, he posted rounds of 72-73-68 to finish T58 and previously had missed the cut twice in three tries. I'll side with Greyserman, who is starting to cement himself as one of the top-20 players in the world. This will be his Pebble debut, and elite driving and putting will translate almost anywhere.

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