This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Wyndham Championship Betting Preview
The PGA Tour regular season comes to a close this week in Greensboro, North Carolina, for the annual Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club. It's a crucial week for most of the players in the field as the top-70 in the FedExCup Standings earn an invite to the first playoff event and also secure their card for 2025. Tournament favorite Sungjae Im (12-1 odds) headlines a field that includes five of the top-25 players in the OWGR. Last year, longshot Lucas Glover (90-1 odds) claimed his fifth Tour victory by two strokes over Russell Henley and Byeong Hun An.
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Course Overview
Par 70, 7,131 yards
These are the average rankings of Wyndham Championship winners since 2019.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 21.8
- SG: Approach: 6.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 43.0
- SG: Putting: 8.4
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 10.0
- Driving Distance: 57.8
- Driving Accuracy: 8.6
The weather will be something to keep an eye on this week as Tropical Storm Debby is expected to pour several inches of rain over the area before things brighten up Saturday and Sunday. While that will limit the roll out on the fairways, the course is already short with only three par-4s over 450 yards and the soft conditions should lead to a lot of birdie opportunities. Off the tee, players are faced with tight fairways and penal bunkers that puts much more a premium on accuracy over distance as evidenced by the statistics above. We can see that iron play tends to be critical as well, with the winner leading the field in SG: Approach in two of the last five years. Overall, I'll be targeting accurate drivers, good iron players from 125-175 yards and birdie makers considering the champions have reached 20-under in six of the last seven years.
Sedgefield Superstars
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Sedgefield Country Club over the last five years.
- Webb Simpson: 66.2
- Billy Horschel: 66.3
- Sungjae Im: 66.6
- Kevin Kisner: 66.7
- Si Woo Kim: 67.0
2011 winner and two-time event runner-up Simpson tops the list as the North Carolina native has feasted in his home event. His record at the venue is about as good as you'll find anywhere with a whopping 10 top-10s across 15 appearances including a T5 last year. Simpson (100-1 odds) comes in with just one top-25 this year, so something will have to give between his track record and recent form. Another past champion on this list is 2016 winner Kim, who has been feast-or-famine at the event with four top-5s and and three missed cuts across eight appearances. Surprisingly, the veteran has just one top-10 all year despite ranking ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Kim is the second choice on the board at 22-1 odds.
Fantastic Flushers
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- J.J. Spaun: 0.86
- Ben Griffin: 0.81
- Doug Ghim: 0.81
- Shane Lowry: 0.80
- Nicolai Hojgaard: 0.79
Spaun enters the event in excellent form with his iron play having gained strokes on approach in 10 of his last 11 tournaments, and we know that will be a key factor this week. He's a longshot at 90-1 odds and has a best finish of T16 here back in 2017, but all three of his top-25s this year have come since the end of June. A bit higher up on the odds board we find Ghim at 55-1, and his strengths of being a straight hitter (12th in driving accuracy) and a good iron player (seventh in SG: Approach) fits exactly what Sedgefield requires you to do well. Ghim is coming off a solid T24 at the 3M Open in which he was fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Wyndham Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Shane Lowry (25-1)
Lowry has a decent track record at the event having made 5-of-6 cuts with a best finish of T7. He's also gained over a stroke per round on approach in two of his last three trips. Lowry comes in with top-10s in two of his last three starts as well.
Aaron Rai (30-1)
Speaking of players in good form, Rai has been on an excellent stretch over the last couple of months with five top-20s over his last six starts including three top-10s. A short but accurate hitter and strong iron player should be ideal for Sedgefield.
Maverick McNealy (50-1)
McNealy was in contention on the back-nine in the Twin Cities two weeks ago but ultimately finished two back in a share for third. With four top-10s this year, he feels close to winning if he can make some slight improvements with his ball striking.
Wyndham Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Ben Griffin (6-1)
Coming off a top-10 hit with Thomas Detry last week, I'll start with Griffin who I'm surprised isn't getting a bit more respect from the oddsmakers considering his fourth-place finish here in 2022 on top of having a pair of top-5s since June. He's gained strokes on approach now in eight consecutive tournaments.
Mac Meissner (7-1)
Meissner ranks 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green this season, showing that the 25-year-old rookie is playing better than his standing in the FedExCup (93rd) would indicate. With three top-20s over his last four events, he's playing arguably the best golf of his career.
Joel Dahmen (12-1)
Dahmen makes for a nice course fit as he's 28th in driving accuracy this year, and he's also gaining 0.75 strokes per round off the tee and on approach combined. That's not what I'd expect from someone 12-1 for a top-10 in a non-signature event.
Wyndham Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Akshay Bhatia (-120) over Kurt Kitayama
This is somewhat of a home event for Bhatia and although his past results leave much to be desired, he's playing at such a higher level now than before that it's hard to draw much from those finishes. This will be Kitayama's first trip to the event and as a longer hitter that's not that accurate nor a good putter, this doesn't appear to be the best fit for his game.
Keegan Bradley (+100) over Harris English
English had a great start to the year but has struggled to find his game as of late, with his last top-25 coming in mid-May. He's putted the ball well but has lost strokes on approach in five of his last six tournaments. Bradley ranks better in SG: Off-the-Tee, approach and Tee-to-Green this season. I'll side with the recently selected Ryder Cup captain at even money.
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