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THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Preview
Following last week's lone team event of the year, the PGA Tour gets back to normal and heads to the Dallas area for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. With a signature event looming next week and then the PGA Championship the week after, it's not a particularly strong field with just three players in the top-25 of the OWGR teeing-it-up, headlined by the hometown tournament favorite Jordan Spieth at 14-1 odds. Last year, Jason Day (18-1 odds) picked up his 13th Tour victory with a one-shot win over Austin Eckroat and Si Woo Kim.
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Course Characteristics
Par 71, 7,414 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Winners since 2021
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 18.3
- SG: Approach: 4.3
- SG: Around-the-Green: 21.7
- SG: Putting: 16.7
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 2.7
- Driving Distance: 37.7
- Driving Accuracy: 35.3
TPC Craig Ranch took over as the host venue three years ago and we can quickly see from the stats outlined above the driving play hasn't had much correlation to success around here. The fairways average 37 yards wide, giving players plenty of landing area off the tee. It's a lengthy course with six of the par-4s playing at least 465 yards, so expect players to use driver often. Iron play is the key statistic to focus on, with the champion ranking eighth or better in SG: Approach each year. I'll especially look to target those that are precise from 175-225 yards as we'll see a lot of iron shots in that range. The winning score has reached at least 23-under in all three years, although windier conditions are expected throughout the weekend and will likely make the course a little tougher than usual, putting a bit more emphasis on ball striking over the putting contest that it often becomes.
Craig Ranch Specialists
The following golfers, with a minimum of two appearances, have the lowest scoring average at TPC Craig Ranch over the last three years.
- K.H. Lee: 66.5
- Jordan Spieth: 66.6
- Ryan Palmer: 67.3
- Jason Day: 67.5
- Matt Kuchar: 67.7
This tournament has been like a second home to Lee, who won the first two editions of the event at Craig Ranch despite entering in mediocre at best form both times. He was unable to pull off the three-peat, finishing T50 as the short game let him down last year, but he did rank second in SG: Approach. The oddsmakers have him reasonably priced at 50-1. The other champion at the venue is Day (20-1 odds), who will look to defend his title and kick start his year into another gear with his last top-10 coming over two months ago. His iron play has been the main issue as he ranks a lowly 133rd in GIR and 152nd in SG: Approach, while the short game remains elite, ranking in the top-25 around the green and putting.
Accurate Approachers
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds:
- Ryan Moore: 1.19
- Tom Hoge: 1.15
- Keith Mitchell: 0.92
- Kevin Yu: 0.64
- Ben Martin: 0.64
I'm not sure if the golf world has noticed, but after a steady decline over a two-year stretch, the 41-year-old Moore has quietly played some solid golf recently. He's posted three top-10s over his last 12 events – not bad for someone ranked outside the top-150 in the world. Although a lack of distance holds him back, the irons have been exceptional as Moore (150-1 odds) ranked ninth in SG: Approach at THE PLAYERS and second at the Valspar. Coming in at identical odds on this list is Martin, who has gained shots on approach in six straight tournaments and is now 16th in the category on the year. It's only translated to one top-25 (T7 at TPC San Antonio), however, but he did have a respectable T26 result in his only appearance here in 2021.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: Outright Picks
Min Woo Lee (25-1)
On paper this doesn't look like the ideal course fit as Lee is one of the best drivers in the field, but it's never a disadvantage to hit it far or to bet on talent. Lee's results tend to be volatile, so I like targeting him for an outright wager. He finished T2 at PGA National two months back.
Adam Schenk (35-1)
Schenk has quietly been trending in a positive direction over the last couple of months, making five consecutive cuts and has gained shots off the tee and on approach in each of those tournaments. He also had a top-5 in San Antonio a few weeks ago.
Aaron Rai (55-1)
Considering the lack of star power in the field, I'm surprised to see Rai at such long odds. Over the last year he's managed five top-10s, including in Houston last month. The Englishman is used to playing in windy conditions and is 23rd in SG: Approach this year.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Maverick McNealy (5-1)
McNealy has played solid golf over the last three months, making eight straight cuts in stroke-play events including three top-15s over his last six. He ranks a solid 14th in SG: Total and 20th off the tee this year.
Alejandro Tosti (9-1)
Tosti has quickly shown himself to be a dominant driver in his rookie season, ranking fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee. He's already found success in Texas, finishing just one shot out of a playoff in Houston a month ago.
Joseph Bramlett (10-1)
If you like the course history angle, Bramlett has played well at TPC Craig Ranch having made the cut all three years with a best finish of T7. His biggest weakness is that he's sporadic off the tee but that's negated here with the wide fairways.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Tom Kim (+100) over Sungjae Im
Kim should feel at home this week considering he lives nearby in Dallas, and he's put up respectable finishes of T34 and T17 in his two appearances. He ranked fifth in SG: Approach here in 2022 and is coming off a top-20 in a signature event. I like him in a matchup over Im, who will be making his first appearance at the venue and has the disadvantage of having played in South Korea last week.
Mark Hubbard (-110) over Seamus Power
Hubbard is generally a solid target in matchups due his consistency, and this week is no different. He's yet to miss a cut this year and ranked third in SG: Approach at the course last year. I like him in a 50/50 odds matchup against Power, who has just a pair of top-25 and is losing strokes from tee to green and putting this year.
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