This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
PGA Championship Betting Preview
It's time for the second major championship of the year as the golf world heads to Louisville, Kentucky, for the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. The storylines are plentiful this time around – can tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler (4-1 odds) win for a fifth time in six starts after becoming a father last week? Rory McIlroy comes in with expectations at an all-time high after winning two consecutive tournaments, while also having won at Valhalla in 2014. And can Jordan Spieth piece it all together to complete the career grand slam? We also can't forget about Brooks Koepka, who picked up his fifth major championship trophy with a two-shot victory over Scheffler and Viktor Hovland last year.
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Valhalla Vitals
Par 71, 7,609 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: PGA Championship Winners since 2019
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 15.0
- SG: Approach: 13.4
- SG: Around-the-Green: 21.2
- SG: Putting: 19.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.8
- Driving Distance: 26.4
- Driving Accuracy: 31.6
Although not every PGA Championship course can be treated as the same, the PGA of America tends to go to long venues that put an emphasis on distance more than the other majors and Valhalla is no different. Seven of the par-4s play over 460 yards and with rain creating soft conditions, the shorter hitters will be at a bigger disadvantage than a typical PGA Tour venue. Fairways average just 30 yards wide, but due to gradual rough, slight misses off the tee aren't going to be a huge detriment while errant drives will be costly. Iron play will also be critical here, and I'll be targeting those that approach it well from 175-225 yards. Valhalla is also known for small greens, so the short game will come into play as well as players will often find themselves scrambling for par. As we can see from the stats above, we're looking for players with steady all-around games.
PGA Prowess
The following players have the lowest scoring average at the PGA Championship since 2019.
- Brooks Koepka: 69.6
- Scottie Scheffler: 69.7
- Will Zalatoris: 70.3
- Bryson DeChambeau: 70.3
- Viktor Hovland: 70.4
- Collin Morikawa: 70.4
Of the four major championships, there isn't one that hasn't suited Koepka and it's easy to see that the PGA Championship has been his favorite with three wins and six top-5s. Although he didn't show much at Augusta with a T45 result, he enters this week in much better form having won LIV Singapore in his last start and makes for a worthy choice at 16-1 odds. Quite a bit farther down the betting board we find Zalatoris at 75-1 to win, and the oddsmakers have soured on him a bit following three poor showings. Nevertheless, much like Koepka, he's one of the rare guys that peaks during major weeks – after all, he has a whopping seven top-10s in 11 appearances! If the back is healthy, he's a longshot that could pay off nicely when all is said and done.
Approach Artists
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.48
- Shane Lowry: 1.15
- Corey Conners: 1.14
- Xander Schauffele: 1.13
- Rory McIlroy: 1.00
Just about any statistical category you can think of these days starts with Scheffler, who has gained over a stroke per round on approach in all but one tournament this year. If that's not an impressive enough stat for you, since the beginning of 2023, he has twice as many top-5 finishes (20) than results outside of the top-5 (10)! I'm not concerned about the layoff as he was on-site practicing Monday and won the Arnold Palmer Invitational the last time he had three weeks off. Speaking of consistency, we also find Schauffele on this list and while a lot of attention is on his lack of winning, he's posted eight top-10s across 12 starts this year. Statistically, it's hard to find something he struggles with (second SG: Tee-to-green, 42nd putting), but he might be better suited for DFS contests or matchup bets rather than a bet to win outright this week.
PGA Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Ludvig Aberg (22-1)
Some bettors may be scared off by a knee injury that caused Aberg to skip last week's event, but I view it as precautionary. In his first major championship, he finished runner-up. His combination of length and accuracy off the tee makes him a contender to one-up his Masters performance.
Tommy Fleetwood (50-1)
The PGA Championship was historically Fleetwood's worst major, but he's finished T5 and T18 the last two years. He just finished tied for third at the Masters and with greens being tough to hit in regulation, it doesn't hurt to have someone with his caliber of short game (10th in SG: Around the green).
Byeong Hun An (55-1)
An is having the best year of his career and although he's yet to win on the PGA Tour, he's put himself near the top of the leaderboard often with four top-5s including his last two events. He's fourth in driving distance this season which should suit him well here.
PGA Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Si Woo Kim (11-2)
We know ball striking will be important at Valhalla, and Kim ranks 14th in SG: Off the tee and ninth on approach. He's lacked the elite finishes thus far in 2024 but has a whopping nine top-25s. Don't overlook him.
Akshay Bhatia (17-2)
If you're looking for a well-rounded player, look no further than Bhatia. He's seventh in SG: Total this year and is gaining shots in every strokes gained category. He's been a model of consistency with seven top-20s this season.
Patrick Reed (10-1)
Reed is one of those players that finds a way to elevate his game to another level in major setups. He has seven top-10s over 40 major appearances and finished T12 at Augusta. Too good of value to pass up.
PGA Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Viktor Hovland (-120) over Cameron Young
Hovland won me a matchup bet last week, so why not go back to him? He ranked among the top-15 in SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach at Quail Hollow, so the ball striking is in good form. Young is too hit-or-miss for my liking in matchup bets. He ranks 135th in bogey avoidance this season, so it's going to be hard for him to stay out of trouble here.
Sungjae Im (-110) over Min Woo Lee
Although Im had struggled for a good chunk of the year, he's found his form recently with T12 and T4 finishes in his last two signature events and has the all-around game that should suit Valhalla. Meanwhile, we know Lee can drive it a long way, but he's losing shots on approach and with his short game this year. I'll take the safer bet with Im.
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