This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
The American Express Betting Preview
After spending two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour heads to the contiguous states for the start of the West Coast Swing that begins in southern California with The American Express. It's a unique event, as players will rotate between La Quinta Country Club, the PGA West Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course over the first three rounds, with those who make the 54-hole cut all playing the final round at the Stadium Course. Tournament favorite Jon Rahm, at 13-2 odds, headlines a much stronger field than usual that consists of five of the top 10 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking. Last year, Hudson Swafford -- at a whopping 150-1 -- picked up his second career Amex win by defeating Tom Hoge and the rest of the field by two strokes.
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Course Characteristics
La Quinta - Par 72, 7,060 yards
Stadium - Par 72, 7,140 yards
Nicklaus - Par 72, 7,181 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: The American Express Winners Since 2018
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 28.0
- SG: Approach: 20.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 65.6
- SG: Putting: 17.4
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 21.6
- Driving Distance: 54.2
- Driving Accuracy: 38.4
Analyzing the data is a bit tricky in this event because strokes gained data is only gathered at PGA West and, due to the pandemic, La Quinta CC was not used in 2021 while three rounds were played at the Stadium Course. La Quinta typically plays the easiest of the three, followed by the Nicklaus course, so paying attention to which golfers are playing where is key when placing prop bets and constructing DFS showdown lineups. Scores are always incredibly low compared to an average Tour event, with the winner reaching at least 20-under-par every year since 2007. Driving tends to be mostly negated, as the short nature of the course limits the usage of the big club to only a few par-4s. I'm mainly targeting players who fare well on approach, as the winner has ranked top-5 in that category in consecutive years. I'll especially be looking at those who excel with their wedges with a lot of second shots being struck inside 125 yards.
American Express Experts
These five golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have averaged the most birdies or better per round at The American Express since 2018.
- Patrick Cantlay: 6.4
- Tony Finau: 6.2
- Jon Rahm: 6.0
- Cam Davis: 5.8
- Adam Hadwin: 5.6
SoCal native Cantlay has excelled in this event, finishing top-10 in three straight appearances. He finished runner-up in 2021 and led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach in 2019. That eared him the respect of the oddsmakers, who have priced him at 11-1 to win. Cantlay did look a bit rusty in Maui, where he finished T16 in the Tournament of Champions, but he figures to be ready to get back on track. Another player who has played some of his best golf at this event is Hadwin, who is quite a bit farther down the betting board at 60-1. Not only has he made the cut in all seven of his trips here, he's also turned three of those into top-3 results. If you like the course history angle, it's hard to find a better value on the board.
The Proper Approach
The following players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Tom Hoge: 1.49
- Tom Kim: 1.19
- Si Woo Kim: 1.14
- Russell Knox: 1.03
- Jason Day: 0.79
This list looks quite similar to last week's, as iron play is a key statistic to hone in on once again. Hoge who ranked 10th on approach at the Sony Open en route to a T41 finish. The junior Kim is also off to a hot start with his irons, ranking seventh in SG: Approach this season. New to the list is Day, who played in the fall for the first time since 2012. He turned four of his six starts into top-25 finishes and appears to be rounding back into form. While he's lost some distance, he's still a candidate to win on plenty of courses, and at 65-1 is a long shot worth backing.
The American Express Bets: Outright Picks
Will Zalatoris (20-1)
Zalatoris returned to action at the Tournament of Champions after missing four months with a back injury. He posted a respectable T11 finish at a course that is tricky for first-timers and ranked fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee. He finished tied for sixth in this event last year.
Tom Kim (22-1)
Kim disappointed last week by missing the cut as the tournament favorite, but he lost a whopping 6.7 strokes on the putting surface while playing well from tee-to-green. Like most tournaments this season, he will be participating for the firs time, but his all-around game makes him viable almost anywhere. He's a good value as the ninth choice on the board.
Cam Davis (45-1)
Davis hasn't finished worse than 30th in his three appearances in this event, most recently finishing solo third in 2021. He ranks third in driving distance this season and is gaining 0.83 strokes off the tee and on approach combined.
The American Express Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Taylor Pendrith (15-2)
Speaking of excellent ball strikers, Pendrith -- who will be making his first 2023 start -- ranks behind only Rahm in SG: Off-the-Tee this season. It often comes down to whether or not the streaky putter finds form on the greens -- he recorded a top-15 finish in the last four tournaments in which he gained strokes putting.
Patrick Rodgers (8-1)
Trending in the right direction after a strong fall is Rodgers, who enters the year on the heels of four top-20 finishes in five starts to close out 2022. His results here have been mediocre at best, but with that comes value, as he's playing much better than the odds would indicate.
Matthew NeSmith (12-1)
We've seen some long-shot winners in this tournament over the years, so don't be afraid to look down the betting board. One under-the-radar player I like is NeSmith, who posted three top-10s in a row this fall. He was third in SG: Approach at the Stadium Course in 2020.
The American Express Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
K.H. Lee (-120) over Sahith Theegala
After hitting both of my matchups last week, I'll start with Lee as a slight favorite over Theegala. I consider Lee the much better golfer between the two, and he's finished ahead of Theegala in four of the last five tournaments in which they have both teed it up. Lee has become a strong all-around player and is a superior ball striker compared to Theegala.
Chris Kirk (+100) over Brendan Steele
Kirk didn't show much this fall but appeared to have found something over the winter break, having finished third in Honolulu last week. Meanwhile, Steele has just one top-25 finish over his last 10 starts and missed the cut in this event last year.
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