This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
THE CJ CUP in South Carolina Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads back stateside for THE CJ CUP in South Carolina at Congaree Golf Club.
This will be the second time Congaree has hosted a Tour event, as it was the venue for the Palmetto Championship in 2021 as a one-off replacement for the RBC Canadian Open. The field is the strongest we have seen on the fall schedule, and it is headlined by Rory McIlroy -- the favorite at 13-2 odds -- and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is listed at 11-1. They are joined by four other top-10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. McIlroy will serve as the defending champion after defeating Collin Morikawa by one stroke at The Summit Club in Las Vegas last year.
Congaree Golf Club plays as a par-71 at just under 7,700 yards. It will look different than it did last year, as this tournament will be played in October as opposed to June. This time around, the track is expected to be much firmer and the greens will be speedier. Unlike a typical Tour course, bunkers and waste areas are a huge theme, as they line the fairways and will make it a struggle to go low consistency. That, along with minimal rough and wide fairways, helps the track resemble a links style course.
With all that in mind, I think the longer hitters will have an advantage, and I'll also be looking at those who excel with their irons.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday.
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Form, Fit and Function
The following five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Tom Kim: 1.27
- Scottie Scheffler: 0.98
- Trey Mullinax: 0.91
- Tom Hoge: 0.87
- Mito Pereira: 0.81
I feel like I've talked about Kim a lot over the past couple months, but with good reason, as the phenom has already won twice on Tour prior to his 21st birthday. He has really excelled when it comes to iron play, gaining 0.80 strokes per round on approach through 38 career PGA Tour rounds. A links course should be no problem for him, as he finished third at the Scottish Open and made the cut at the Open Championship. A bit further down the board we find Pereira, a popular pick last week who disappointed with a T45. He's a strong candidate to bounce back considering how strong his driving is, not to mention his elite iron play. He's still looking for his first Tour win, and while he's a long shot to do so at 70-1, he at least looks like a solid option in DFS contests.
THE CJ CUP in South Carolina: Outright Picks
Justin Thomas (16-1)
The only time we've seen Thomas this fall was at the Presidents Cup, where he secured four points for Team USA. I like the price considering his odds are usually in this range in full-field events, and he's one of the best all-around players teeing it up, having ranked third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last season.
Viktor Hovland (28-1)
Hovland was in the mix last week, entering the final round three shots off the lead before ultimately settling for a T5. That's his second top-5 over his last three tournaments, and while he struggled in the final round the last three times he was in contention, I'm wiling to wager he gets over the hump at these odds.
Aaron Wise (45-1)
Wise will be making just his second start of the season, but he won't have to deal with any time zone issues, having skipped any tournament played overseas. Over his last 13 events, he missed just one cut and notched a runner-up at the Memorial. He's primed to win soon.
THE CJ CUP in South Carolina: Top-10 Wagers
K.H. Lee
Top-10 Finish: 7-1
Last week was Lee's first poor performance in quite some time, so I'm going consider that an anomaly and expect a bounce back performance. He gets overlooked by many because he's not phenomenal in any particular area, but he has no weaknesses, either.
Corey Conners
Top-5 Finish: 9-1
Conners responded from a slow start last week to close with three consecutive rounds of 67. That gives me enough confidence to bet on him, as we know he's one of the best ball strikers on Tour when he's in form. With four top-10 finishes since March, I wouldn't be surprised to see him work his way into contention.
Brendan Steele
Top-10 Finish: 11-1
Steele fired an opening-round 64 to hold the first-round lead at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP before cooling off the rest of the tournament. These are generous odds for Steele in a limited-field event, especially considering he gained over a stroke per round last season off the tee and on approach combined.
THE CJ CUP in South Carolina: Head-to-Head Matchups
Collin Morikawa (-110) over Sam Burns
Burns hasn't showed much since climbing inside the top 10 in the world earlier this summer, failing to record even a single top-15 finish over his last eight starts. I will be fading him until he shows signs of getting back on track, especially in a matchup against Morikawa at a place that should favor elite iron play.
Tommy Fleetwood (-125) over Adam Hadwin
Fleetwood is one of the handful of players in the field with experience at Congaree, and that should be beneficial even if he notched just a T35. This opened as a toss-up and I'm not surprised to see it tilt in Fleetwood's favor, as he is the superior golfer and Hadwin is better suited for courses with tighter fairways.
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