Film Review: Two Out of Three

Apologies for the delay.

Chicago (17) vs. Carolina (3)

Tarik Cohen saw a good amount of activity at wide receiver, where undrafted rookie and recent practice squad callup Tanner Gentry otherwise appears to be the top wideout. Of course, when the Bears are attempting under 10 passes per game, perhaps it doesn't matter much. Trubisky is athletic and poised, and eventually he might be good, but he pretty much has no idea what he's doing right now. Considering the defense barely needs to so much as pretend to care about the pass, Jordan Howard's showing was at least slightly impressive.

Cam Newton wasn't good in this one, but his 'fumble' was actually a dropped pitch by Curtis Samuel, and the Panthers pass catchers otherwise struggled to get open against a crew of Chicago corners who have been highly effective this year. I expect him to bounce back against Tampa Bay, and both of Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess in the process.

It's less easy to see light at the end of the tunnel for the Carolina running game, which is getting absolutely nothing from Christian McCaffrey, and not much more than that from Jonathan Stewart. Neither has looked particularly good, but it's also safe to say neither has looked as bad as their numbers. I have to chalk it up to the offensive line in large part – indeed, Football Outsiders metrics place Carolina as the 23rd team in tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage, and dead last in second-level blocking.

Rams (33) vs. Arizona (0) in London

This was supposed to be a tough matchup for Todd Gurley and an easy one for Adrian Peterson. It played out the opposite, with the Rams successfully selling out against the run early before Carson Palmer's broken arm injury struck, leaving Peterson with a point deficit and a useless passing game. Unfortunately for Peterson's new owners, this may have been a preview of things to come. Drew Stanton is quite bad, and with Palmer out the Cardinals figure to both fall behind more easily and run with less efficiency at the same time.

Gurley didn't break the defense right away, but he showed that with enough volume and favorable enough field position, he can post big numbers against even the toughest defenses. This was probably his most impressive game yet in a season where he's making a case to be considered alongside Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott as the top tier of fantasy backs.

Despite a four-catch, 51-yard showing with a touchdown, Cooper Kupp dropped a touchdown pass for the second time in three weeks. He's riding Sammy Watkins' coattails and Watkins would have done much more in the same role. Decoy logic has no merit in coordinating a passing game. It is in any case Kupp who has more fantasy value so long as Watkins' main job is creating room for him.

Minnesota (24) vs. Baltimore (16)

Alex Collins is regarded as the better runner between him and Javorius Allen, but I'm not convinced that it will prove to be the case in the longer term. In the meantime, Collins poses no threat whatsoever to Allen's utility as a pass catcher, which is basically as the team's go-to receiver, sad as that is.

Even in a game where he took five sacks and posted a YPA of just 4.8, this game went better than expected for Joe Flacco. Still, he was as checkdown-dependent as ever and was still close to disaster at several points. With Mike Wallace (concussion) and Jeremy Maclin (shoulder) out, Flacco turned to Chris Moore as the lead receiver for the second week in a row, and the sophomore fourth-round pick out of Cincinnati got his first NFL touchdown in the process. I liked Moore as a prospect, but in a Flacco offense with Wallace and Maclin back soon, his odds of maintaining production appear just about zero.

Latavius Murray had a breakout game and made his own sort of claim on the lead running back role in Minnesota, but I don't think he looked any different than his previous weeks. Murray will have fantasy value so long as he's the top power back for Minnesota, but I think his big numbers from Sunday were mostly the result of the Ravens defense getting tired. I still think I'd rather have Jerick McKinnon going forward, even if he rarely breaks tackles.

Case Keenum wasn't good, but I don't think he was bad, either. Kyle Rudolph dropped a couple passes, and Adam Thielen had trouble with Baltimore's hold-heavy coverage. Thielen was pretty sure he was getting held all game, and then on a third-down conversion catch in the third quarter the refs called pass interference on Thielen for pushing away Marlon Humphrey, despite the latter initiating the contact with clear ambitions to grab. I like the chances of Keenum, Thielen, and Rudolph bouncing back against the Browns.

Cleveland (9) vs. Tennessee (12)

Marcus Mariota has been quite a disappointment, even when healthy, and this game marks a low point for missed opportunity in a season full of them. The Browns showed a lot of cushion in this one, but rather than exploit downfield openings Mariota mostly hesitated before checking down constantly. I don't know how this offense isn't more explosive, but perhaps the return of Corey Davis will help.

With DeShone Kizer there is much less hope, at least for this year. His regression continued against a bad Tennessee pass defense, showing the continued tendency to stare down receivers while making inaccurate throws and poor decisions. He looked more poised in this game than before his benching, but there's basically nothing going right with Kizer at the moment, and it's hard to see any of his pass catchers doing much as a result. With all that said, I doubt Cody Kessler is much of an improvement.

The lone useful player in the Browns offense continues to be Duke Johnson, who saw a season-high seven carries but still appears a minimal threat to Isaiah Crowell's role as the lead runner. Crowell did nothing impressive as he totaled 35 yards on 17 carries compared to Duke's 26 yards. Crowell is averaging 3.2 yards per carry on the year while Duke is at 5.1. If not Johnson, then it seems like the Browns have to get somebody else involved with Crowell providing such bad returns all year.

Miami (31) vs. Jets (28)

Bilal Powell started the game and Elijah McGuire received the first carry, but it seems like Matt Forte remains the lead back for the Jets by the slimmest of margins. With 13 targets for 13 catches over the last two weeks, Forte may hold more mainstream PPR utility than previously forecast. Powell should sprinkle in some nice games on an unpredictable basis, while McGuire is clearly a distant third for now.

Cordrea Tankersly may be a corner to target on the Dolphins – the rookie was left in the dust on a fly route by Jermaine Kearse of all people, giving the steady but unexplosive wideout an easy 29-yard touchdown on the opening drive. Steady as he is, Kearse saw just three targets from that point, and it's pretty clear by now that he's a distant third in this passing game behind Robby Anderson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. ASJ is poised to finish the year as one of the best fantasy tight ends in PPR thanks to his consistent prominence in the Jets offense, and I think Anderson is capable of posting bigger numbers the rest of the way than most people might guess.

I don't wish injury on many people, and Jay Cutler certainly isn't among the ones I do, but his absence will be a blessing for the Dolphins offense. Even when things were going well for Jay in this one, it was basically because he was lucky. His first completion to Julius Thomas was on botched zone coverage, and his long pass to Kenny Stills was a misplaced, ill-timed throw that should have been intercepted and was only circus-caught as Stills fell and bobbled the ball. Stills was initially open on the play, by the way, and Cutler didn't see him until it was too late for throwing the ball to make any objective sense. I'm assuming Moore keeps the starting role the rest of the year, which upgrades the prospects of all three notable Miami wideouts for me.

Perhaps Moore can help Jay Ajayi in the form of extended drives and better field positioning, but the Miami offensive line is playing so poorly that it's hard to find much optimism for Ajayi, who's otherwise running well. With road matchups in Baltimore and Carolina among two of his next three games, he'll certainly have his work cut out for him.

Green Bay (17) vs. New Orleans (26)

Brett Hundley was as bad as his numbers in this one, and he might only have a couple quarters of leash left if he persists with such poor play. He showed nothing as far as pocket presence or timing, and at levels that make it difficult to have any optimism for him going forward. Hundley has a lot of tools to work with, but to be this raw at this stage of his career implies a lack of developmental upside.

I always was an Aaron Jones advocate, but I'm pretty sure a healthy Ty Montgomery would have been able to put up the same numbers Jones did with identical playcalls and blocking, and probably do it even faster. Still, Jones is clearly in the lead right now, health-related reasoning or not.

Mark Ingram might only be average in relative terms, but he's more than adequate and is frequently quite good. Alvin Kamara is probably as good or better than Christian McCaffrey, which makes the price paid for the latter a bitter pill. Ingram and Kamara are locked into flex or better utility in 12 team leagues.

Good as his fantasy output ended up on the day, Drew Brees was not especially sharp, especially early. Perhaps Brandon Coleman was supposed to cut his route inward sooner or some such thing, but the end zone interception thrown at Coleman in the first quarter was completely ill-advised. He would toss up an interception to Davon House later in the quarter, placing an ostensible jumpball too shallow and inside for Michael Thomas to get at it. I think this offense could really use Willie Snead (hamstring) when he's healthy, because Ted Ginn is playing over his head right now.

Buffalo (30 vs. Tampa Bay (27)

I was beginning to feel even dumber than usual for my year-long insistence that the Buffalo secondary can't cover downfield, but finally an injured, previously struggling Jameis Winston of all people tested the hypothesis, and now I'm feeling emboldened again. It certainly helps to have pass-catching threats like Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate at your disposal, but I'm pretty sure most decent downfield passing games could get the better of Buffalo if they held strong in a commitment to attack vertically. Derek Carr isn't known for his downfield prowess, but I like the chances of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree getting open.

If Winston can keep his momentum, I like the chances of DeSean Jackson finishing 2017 with his best season since his 1,332-yard, nine-touchdown showing in 2013. He had what was about a 60-yard catch called back on an offensive hold. He should start hitting his downfield kill shots soon enough, yet in the meantime he's showing a steady level of activity on intermediate routes that lend more consistency than the more strict deep-route role he had in Washington. One of his catches in this game was a nearly intercepted slant that Jackson simply stole from cornerback E.J. Gaines.

It might not be worth chasing his stats from this game since he's often used as a blocker and Cameron Brate remains a standout pass-catching threat, but O.J. Howard really has the tools to be one of the best tight ends ever. Tampa Bay would be wise to find someone else for the blocking, because Howard's remarkably imposing as a receiver.

Doug Martin's numbers were poor, but he looked more than good enough. Maybe not this week against Carolina, but big games should be ahead for Martin if he stays healthy.

As has been the case all year, LeSean McCoy looked even better than his numbers, repeatedly showing prescience and cutting ability that make him almost impossible to defend at times. Even with his rushing average lagging, I wouldn't put a single bit of the blame on him. Watch for Very Serious commentators to start whining about his respect for the game or whatever – he's been using a Deion Sanders grip all year and finally lost a fumble in this one.

It's hard to quantify rushing skill at quarterback, but Tyrod Taylor is clearly one of the very best ever. If he were as ambitious of a ballcarrier as he is a scrambler, he could easily run for 1,000 yards in a season in another sort of offense. In the meantime, he's usually a nice high-floor play at home, and you have to like his chances of logging another good game with the Raiders traveling to Buffalo. Nick O'Leary should be a fine punt option at tight end as long as Charles Clay (knee) is out, but it was interesting to see former quarterback Logan Thomas get involved at tight end. With elite athleticism for the position, Thomas is someone to monitor in the very long term.

Deonte Thompson had the biggest day at receiver for Buffalo, but I wouldn't chase his numbers. He's a former top recruit with burning speed, but his hands were so bad at Florida that many considered him a cornerback prospect. Jordan Matthews should establish himself as the top receiver as he works his way back from a thumb break.

San Francisco (10) vs. Dallas (40)

I said before that I consider Dak Prescott the third best quarterback in the league, but I think you could make a case at this point that he's closing in on Tom Brady as the second best. It's only a question because Brady is 40 years old, but it's still an incredible ascent for a second-year player who almost fell to the fifth round. If Dak keeps it up, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten should have high floors every week.

Brice Butler didn't catch a pass, but he did draw a pass interference in the first quarter. Butler has a weird prospect profile – he was profoundly unproductive in college but was a blue chip recruit with great athleticism – but I think it's safe to say he's better than Terrance Williams. The Dallas offense could have a new level of explosiveness if they would just push aside Williams for Butler and Cole Beasley for Ryan Switzer.

There's not much to add about Ezekiel Elliott's performance – as long as he's on the field he's usually great, and I think the Dallas offensive line should improve as its new starters get more reps with Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, and Zack Martin. Expect Elliott's pass-catching work to remain at a higher level than last year, too.

Carlos Hyde's output was disappointing in a generally favorable spot, but I thought he ran effectively. It's pretty clear that he's been one of the league's best running backs going back to last year, but his upcoming road matchup with the Eagles looks like a bad spot.

C.J. Beathard's poor game was inconclusive, but pretty consistent with his profile as a prospect. Albeit while playing hurt for some indefinite amount of it, the production in his college career was prohibitively bad for NFL prospect viability. He could turn into a good backup, but that's probably all. In the meantime I would worry that he's even worse for Pierre Garcon and George Kittle than Brian Hoyer was.

As an unrelated note, this Dallas pass rush could give some teams a lot of trouble as long as David Irving and Demarcus Lawrence stay healthy. They've both been monstrous this year.

Giants (7) vs. Seattle (24)

Despite a slow first half, I thought Russell Wilson looked pretty great in this one. That he played against a tame Giants pass rush certainly helped, but he made a number of long-distance, high-velocity throws with impressive accuracy. He's shown some week-to-week fluctuation over the last two years, but when he's on his better days he's borderline transcendent.

What was otherwise an acceptable box score for Jimmy Graham could have been better if not for an early touchdown drop. Somehow lined up one-on-one against 5-foot-10 Janoris Jenkins with no safety help at the goal line, Graham was allowed a pushoff but dropped an easy touchdown. Tyler Lockett saw a lot of activity in the first half, and I think there's some reason to find optimism for him going forward. He had what would have been about a 40-yard touchdown catch overturned on an offensive pass interference call that I would imagine gets called no more than half of the time. I wouldn't chase Paul Richardson's numbers – he's painfully average and his touchdown was on a flea flicker.

I thought Thomas Rawls showed more than Eddie Lacy, but still not much. Given J.D. McKissic's emergence as a receiving specialist at running back, I still think it makes too much sense for the Seahawks to give C.J. Prosise a shot as the lead runner when he's healthy. He can do more than Rawls or Lacy, and McKissic can do Prosise's old job.

It's amazing how much better Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman have been than Paul Perkins. The whole saga is one of the more bizarre tales in my recent memory – Perkins was worlds better than Darkwa and Gallman in college. Now, though, this is Darkwa's backfield, and he gets a nice matchup with the Rams after the bye.

Evan Engram might as well be the top wideout in this Giants offense. While he's certainly benefiting from a sort of indefinite garbage time as long as the Giants slog along with their Zero WR offense, he's still legitimately impressive otherwise. Even the fastest linebackers just can't really cover him for more than a few seconds, and he's capable of significant damage after the catch. It's hard to see him finishing outside of the top 10 at tight end in fantasy.

Chargers (21) vs. Denver (0)

The Chargers sure looked pretty dumb on their first drive when a 1st and goal from the one resulted in four straight Melvin Gordon no gains. Hunter Henry might have had a touchdown on the play prior to that sequence, when he drew a blatant defensive pass interference call in the end zone. Given Henry's recent usage and Philip Rivers' inability to throw downfield, Henry looks like a top-five fantasy TE the rest of the way. Other than Henry and Gordon, the only player Rivers can get the ball to regularly remains Keenan Allen, who very nearly scored on the play before Rivers' touchdown to Austin Ekeler.

Melvin Gordon and C.J. Anderson both had bad games, but there's probably no insight to take away from it. Gordon was just going against a brutally tough run defense, while Anderson was effective but didn't get much opportunity as the Denver passing game tanked. Anderson's in a cold stretch right now but I don't think he's playing fundamentally differently than he did in his successful first month. His issues are mostly quarterback-related.

Trevor Siemian is bad, but credit where it's due: he's amazingly good at getting defenders to drop easy interceptions. I don't know how he does it, but he narrowly missed a pick-six on his second drive, and early in the second quarter he badly overthrew Demaryius Thomas over the middle, but the safety behind him was evidently caught off guard by how off target the throw was and got his hands up too late. I feel like I see these things all the time whenever I watch Siemian. Of course, I'd rather see him be good at getting the ball to his receivers. The Chargers sat on the short routes and Siemian couldn't get anything going from there, either checking down or taking pressure almost every pass.

Pittsburgh (29) vs. Cincinnati (14)

Cincinnati's insistence on starting Jeremy Hill each game is one of the most backward practices in the NFL right now. Sure, it probably wouldn't change the game outcomes if they started Joe Mixon, but how do you even raise the possibility of, let alone justify and implement, the practice of putting your worst players on the field at the start of a game, when game flow and fortune generally are most malleable? Particularly with Mixon running as well as he did in this game, the decision to willingly give the ball to the least qualified player may have had substantive repercussions. Marvin Lewis is acting like a coach who's two months away from retirement.

How I wish A.J. Green played with a better quarterback than Andy Dalton. To be fair to Dalton, the pass rush really made things tough for him in this one. Things should be much easier against the Colts.

No one comes close to scheming wideouts open as well as Todd Haley does with Antonio Brown. Bad offensive coordinators often look at a star receiver and see a decoy opportunity to ostensibly extract more production out of the lesser pass catchers on an offense, but because Haley is not dumb he instead looks to maximize his best player, with numerous plays each game clearly designed to specifically create openings for Brown. Juju Smith-Schuster is a very good prospect who should emerge as an above average starter not long from now, but I don't see any reason to chase his stats from this one. His touchdown was on a busted zone play where the Bengals just didn't have anyone for about a 25-yard radius in the left corner of the field.

Ben Roethlisberger only looks to Martavis Bryant after he's looked to everyone else – Bryant may have scored on his second quarter catch on a slant-hitch inside the ten if Roethlisberger had seen him in the slant part of the route. It's disappointing that Vance McDonald might miss time with a knee injury suffered in this game – he turned five targets into 63 yards over the last two weeks, and he's all but pushed Jesse James out of consideration for targets otherwise. He did drop a touchdown pass in the second quarter, though.

I don't have any metrics to point toward, but any time I've seen Cincinnati corner William Jackson he's looked great.

New England (23) vs. Atlanta (7)

I had placed most of the blame for Atlanta's struggles on Steve Sarkisian, and I still think he's pretty clearly at fault for most of it, but in the case of this particular game it also had a lot to do with Matt Ryan not playing well. For whatever reason, his ability to throw downfield appears to have completely evaporated, and it's difficult to identify a reason why it would change going forward. I guess we'll find out when they fire Sarkisian in a week or two.

I'm sure there are other cases I've merely forgotten about by now, but New England's usage of Mike Gillislee is the only time I can remember the Belichick Patriots tactically mishandling a skill position player. Perhaps Gillislee really is a profound liability as a pass catcher, and maybe his utilization to this point really is the most that can be done, but at the very least his theoretical application this year was always ill-conceived. Even LeGarrette Blount saw eight targets last year, but Gillislee has yet to see one. His presence tips off the run, which raises the difficulty level for the run game every time Gillislee sees the field. For a specialist to yield lower returns than the non-specialists at the same position is inefficient, to say the least. If they won't get him involved as a receiver, New England should commit to only using Gillislee in the red zone and in short-yardage, frequently mixing in playaction at the same time. Every time they put him on the field otherwise they shrink the field on themselves.

With that being the case, Dion Lewis is clearly the better running back for New England, even as a so-called rushing specialist. If nothing changes with Gillislee, the same statement can be made about Rex Burkhead. I'm not sure how much longer I can hold on to Gillislee in the leagues that I have him.

I'm having trouble thinking of much to say about the New England passing game. Tom Brady's passing was efficient, and he might have accumulated major volume if Ryan hadn't proved so harmless. I think the status quo to this point will mostly persist – Danny Amendola will chip in some nice games against weaker slot coverage, Brandin Cooks will be a big-play dependent borderline WR1, and Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski will split most of the red-zone targets.