Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Cardinals vs. Packers

Thursday's matchup between the 7-0 Cardinals and the 6-1 Packers was shaping up to be one of the marquee games of the season, but it's lost a bit of its luster with the news that Davante Adams and Allen Lazard have been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The line opened at 3.5 points but now the Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites at home in a game with a 50.5-point total. Assuming Adams does not play, there will be plenty of cheap options on the Packers side worthy of rostering. It will be much easier than it would've been to afford both QBs and as things stand, that's how most of my builds will look. I still expect a competitive game, but with Green Bay shorthanded, stacking the Cardinals and hoping for a blowout seems viable as well. As always in these single-game contests, plan for a specific scenario and build lineups to fit that game script.

QUARTERBACKS

Kyler Murray ($12,000 DK, $17,000 FD) is the most expensive player on both sites. From a fantasy perspective it's a bit concerning that he only has 17 rushing yards in his last three games. It's part of the reason that he hasn't topped 26 DK points since Week 2, but Thursday's matchup against Green Bay will be a great opportunity for him to put up a ceiling score. The Packers have allowed the league's second-most QB rushing yards and they're still without top corner Jaire Alexander and top pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith. With Davante Adams not expected to play, Murray clearly projects as the top scoring player and will be a popular option in the captain/MVP spot. 

Aaron Rodgers ($11,400 DK, $15,000 FD) has thrown 15 TDs with just one INT in his last six games and has put up 23+ DK points in five of them. The Packers would surely miss Davante Adams but Rodgers has actually averaged more fantasy points without him in six previous games the last three seasons. The Cardinals defense has been stellar, but it hasn't faced any good quarterbacks with the exception of Matthew Stafford. If Adams misses, there will be plenty of cheap value options at WR that make it easy to afford both QBs and that's the construction I plan on using in most of my lineups. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

DeAndre Hopkins ($10,600 DK, $12,000 FD) has yet to eclipse 87 receiving yards in a game this season, but he has seven TDs in seven games, including four in the last three. His target share is down as Murray likes to spread the ball around but Thursday's matchup will be another great opportunity to find the end zone with the Packers missing top corner Jaire Alexander. He has multiple TD upside here and that makes him a good option for the captain spot. Christian Kirk ($7,200 DK, $11,000 FD) has scored in back-to-back games and has at least four catches in three straight. He's drawn more than 5 targets just twice this season which highlights the fact that he's been efficient but it makes him risky and likely TD-dependent for his salary. A.J. Green ($6,800 DK, $10,500 FD) is similarly priced and has shown similar production. He's seen more targets though, drawing six in five of seven games. Both Green and Kirk are less appealing when you consider that it's likely no Packer WR will have a salary above $3,800. Rondale Moore ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD) has been quiet since his Week 2 explosion. He's caught more than three passes just once in the past five games and hasn't found the end zone either. The addition of Ertz should further limit his opportunities going forward. I don't expect him to be overly popular but he has big play upside and a relatively cheap salary so it makes sense to take a chance if you're entering multiple lineups. 

Davante Adams ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD) was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday and would have to test negative twice 24 hours apart in order to be activated. Allen Lazard (COVID-19) has already been ruled out after coming in close contact with Adams. Assuming both are out, that would free up around 15 targets for the remaining Packer WRs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,800 DK, $6,500 FD) hasn't played since Week 3 due to a hamstring injury but has a chance to return on Thursday. Should he do so, he'd likely operate as the de facto No. 1 WR with Randall Cobb ($3,600 DK, $7,000 FD) playing alongside him in the slot. Of the two, Valdes-Scantling is the deep threat while Cobb does most of his work underneath or over the middle. Based on the cheap salaries, at least one Packer WR is almost certain to be in the optimal lineup and I'll have plenty of exposure to both Valdes-Scantling and Cobb. After them, it's difficult to predict the pecking order but Equanimeous St. Brown ($600 DK, $6,000 FD), Amari Rodgers ($400 DK, $5,500 FD) and Malik Taylor ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) should all have opportunities. None of the three have seen more than three targets this season but all of them are viable based the near-minimum salaries. If I had to guess, Rodgers probably has the least upside playing behind Cobb as more of a slot WR. St. Brown and Taylor operate on the outside and likely have more big play potential. They'd get significant bumps if Valdes-Scantling doesn't recover in time. 

Moving to tight end, Zach Ertz ($6,200 DK, $8,500 FD) caught three of five targets for 66 yards and a TD in his Cardinals debut last week. He played 49% of the snaps and that number should increase going forward as he gets familiar with the offense. Priced in similar range to Christian Kirk and A.J. Green, his value is lessened because of the cheap options on the Packers side. He'd almost certainly have to get in the end zone to be optimal. 

Robert Tonyan ($4,600 DK, $8,000 FD) is coming off his best game of the season last week when he caught four of five targets for 63 yards and a TD. It's was only the second time this season that he's scored more than three DK points but I'd expect his target share to increase in the absence of Adams. That plus his affordable salary makes him a solid option for Thursday and I plan on being over the field in terms of exposure. Marcedes Lewis ($1,000 DK, $6,000 FD) has caught at least two passes in three consecutive weeks. I prefer the cheaper WRs in this range but Lewis has been an option around the goal line in the past and if Adams is unavailable, it wouldn't surprise me to see Rodgers look his way. 

RUNNING BACKS

James Conner ($7,800 DK, $10,000 FD) has carried the ball at least 10 times in six of seven games and he's been the main goal line back which has resulted in six rushing TDs. It's a bit concerning however that he was out-snapped 49 to 21 and out-touched 16 to 10 by Chase Edmonds ($7,000 DK, $9,500 FD) last week. Edmonds has caught at least three balls in all but one game and that receiving upside plus the cheaper salary has me preferring him over Conner. Conner likely has to score in order to be optimal while that isn't the case for Edmonds. 

Aaron Jones ($9,000 DK, $12,500 FD) has caught 26 of his 28 targets this season. I'd expect him to see more work in the passing-game if Davante Adams misses. This should be a great spot for Jones as Arizona has given up 4.79 yards per carry and the league's ninth-most receptions to RBs. We've seen Jones put up huge games in the past and he's already topped 40 DK points once this season. The Packers are likely to lean on him in the absence of Adams and the ceiling potential makes him a good option for the captain spot. AJ Dillon ($1,400 DK, $6,500 FD) saw a season-low three carries and caught of one of two targets last week. He could see a few more opportunities with the Packers shorthanded and for the cheap salary it makes sense to take a chance if you're multi-entering but I prefer the WRs for even cheaper. 

KICKERS

Normally I like the kickers more than most but all the cheap value on the Packers side they're not quite as appealing for Thursday. Both Matt Prater ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD) and Mason Crosby ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) are still viable though. Anytime you have two good offenses playing it's likely that one of the kickers will have multiple field goal attempts. Prater holds the NFL record for most 50+ yard field goals made and already has three to his name this season. I'll have some exposure to each but I prefer the likes of Tonyan, Valdes-Scantling and Cobb in that range, assuming Adams is out. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Cardinals ($3,000) defense has been good this season but they haven't really played anyone besides the Rams. Aaron Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over much either. The Packers ($2,800) are missing some of their top defenders and will have a tough time stopping Kyler Murray and co. The plethora of cheap value options make the defenses look even less appealing. I'll be fading both.