Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Broncos vs. Saints

Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Broncos vs. Saints

This article is part of our DFS NFL series.

Week 7 gets underway Thursday with a matchup between rookie quarterbacks when Spencer Rattler and the Saints play host to Bo Nix and the Broncos. Let's sift through the DFS options for the single-game contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Quarterback

This is a tough matchup for Rattler ($9,200 DK, $14,500 FD). The Broncos have allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game in the league and just five passing touchdowns. They have five interceptions with 22 sacks. After throwing two interceptions in his debut against the Buccaneers last week, it's difficult to envision Rattler providing much value.

Of the two quarterbacks in this game, Nix ($9,400 DK, $15,000 FD) is more appealing. His passing yards totals have not been great, but he has thrown two touchdown passes in back-to-back games. He also has three rushing touchdowns and three games with at least 35 rushing yards. The Saints have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league.

Running Back

The player with the highest upside on either team at any position is Alvin Kamara ($11,800 DK, $16,000 FD). He has recorded five games with at least 100 scrimmage yards and he has seven total touchdowns. He has four games with at least 15 carries and three games with at least eight targets, averaging 22.0 touches per game. His top backup is Jamaal Williams ($3,600 DK, $9,000 FD), who has received a total of just eight carries over the last four games.

The Broncos don't have a running back that they use like the Saints use Kamara. Javonte Williams ($8,800 DK, $11,500 FD) has been their lead back, but he has not received more than 57.9 percent of the team's rushing attempts in a game this season. He has produced fewer than 25 rushing yards in a game three times and has yet to record a touchdown. Taking away some of Williams' work has been Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,800 DK, $7,500 FD), but he also has three games in which he received five or fewer carries. It might be wise to pay up for Kamara, but Williams and McLaughlin both come with plenty of uncertainty.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

The short week didn't help Chris Olave, who won't play because of a concussion. The Saints will really be in trouble at wide receiver with Rashid Shaheed (knee) also out. He has been one of their most explosive pass catchers, averaging 17.5 yards per reception. With Olave going down early last week, Bub Means ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) was on the field for 69.7 percent of their offensive snaps and Cedrick Wilson Jr. ($3,200 DK, $6,000 FD) was on the field for 53.0 percent. Means was targeted eight times, finishing with five receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown. He's an appealing option, especially given his salary on DraftKings. Mason Tipton ($1,600 DK, $6,500 FD), who has not posted more than two receptions and 15 yards in a game this season, could also be more involved.

Courtland Sutton ($10,800 DK, $11,000 FD) has received 25.0 percent of the Broncos' targets this season and has an average depth of target of 13.1 yards. The downside is that he averages just 2.0 yards after the catch. He has yet to top 68 yards in a game, but he does have two touchdown receptions in the last three games. While he is the biggest name among the Broncos' wide receivers, Devaughn Vele ($4,400 DK, $7,000 FD) could provide better value. After catching eight passes for 39 yards in Week 1, Vele did not play again until last week. The Broncos needed him because Josh Reynolds (finger) was placed on injured reserve. Vele may have cemented a regular role after catching four of six targets for 78 yards versus the Chargers.

The Broncos don't utilize the tight end position much in the passing game. Adam Trautman ($600 DK, $6,000 FD) and Lucas Krull ($1,000 DK, $5,000 FD) have a total of five receptions this season. Greg Dulcich ($200 DK, $6,500 FD) has been inactive the last two games despite being healthy.

Given the Saints' injuries at wide receiver, they could be forced to rely more on tight end Juwan Johnson ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD), who caught all three of his targets for 48 yards with Rattler under center last week. Foster Moreau ($2,800 DK, $7,000 FD) also caught both of his targets for 54 yards. Moreau does have two touchdowns this season, so he might be worth the risk in tournament play. Taysom Hill (ribs) is listed as doubtful, so he will be yet another key member of the Saints' offense that should be out.

Kicker

Although Blake Grupe ($5,000 DK, $9,500 FD) has missed two extra point attempts this season, he is 10-for-10 on field-goal attempts. That has included him making both of his attempts from at least 50 yards. Last season, he went 6-for-9 on attempts of at least 50 yards. With the Broncos struggling to score, Wil Lutz ($5,400 DK, $9,500 FD) has received just nine extra point attempts, all of which he converted. He is 13-for-14 on field goal attempts with his lone miss coming from at least 50 yards.

Defense/Special Teams

Points might be hard to come by in this game. The Broncos ($4,800 DK, $8,500 FD) only average 18.7 points per game and allow just 16.0 points per game. Their 22 sacks rank second in the league. The Saints ($5,200 DK, $9,000 FD) have a more modest sack total of 15, but their 10 interceptions are the second in the league.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Mike Barner plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: mbarner, DraftKings: mbarner51.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mike Barner
Mike started covering fantasy sports in 2007, joining RotoWire in 2010. In 2018, he was a finalist for the FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Mike also won the 2022-23 FSGA NBA Experts Champions league. In addition to RotoWire, Mike has written for Sportsline, Sports Illustrated, DK Live, RealTime Fantasy Sports, Lineup Lab and KFFL.com.
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