This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Commanders vs. Bears Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Thursday Night Football, Week 5
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Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 5 with a matchup between the Commanders and Bears. Let's dig into the betting options for the game and highlight some wagers to consider.
Commanders vs. Bears Betting Odds for Thursday Night Football
Commanders: Spread -6 (-108), -265 Moneyline
Bears: Spread +6 (-112), +215 Moneyline
Game Total: 44.5 points
The Bears are heavy underdogs because they enter with an 0-4 record. The Commanders are 2-2, which included an overtime loss to the Eagles in Week 4.
Commanders vs. Bears Betting Picks This Week
Neither of these teams have great offenses. The Bears have averaged 18.8 points per game with Justin Fields struggling. Prior to his explosion against a terrible Broncos defense in Week 4, Fields started off the season with three straight games of 216 passing yards or fewer. With their offense struggling, they have punted the ball at least four times in three of their four games.
The Commanders haven't been much better on offense than the Bears, averaging 22.3 points per game. Sam Howell has shown flashes, but has largely been underwhelming with just four touchdown passes and five interceptions. His issues have resulted in the Commanders punting the ball 17 times through four games. Add these two bad offenses to the usual sloppiness that comes with Thursday Night Football and there is a favorable chance for a lot of punts.
Commanders vs. Bears Best Bet: Over 8.5 total punts (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
With Howell performing so poorly, the Commanders have tried to rely on their running game. Brian Robinson Jr. has pulled away from Antonio Gibson as their lead option, totaling 61 carries through four games. Gibson has carried the ball just 13 total times.
Robinson began the season with at least 18 carries in both of the Commanders' first two games. They won both of them. While losing the last two games, Robinson rushed 10 and 14 times, respectively. As heavy favorites at home, look for Robinson to be busy and go over his rush attempts prop.
Commanders vs. Bears Best Bet: Brian Robinson Jr. over 15.5 rush attempts (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Fields is a mobile quarterback, but he also holds the ball for way too long. Maybe part of that is because he knows he can try and extend plays with his legs. With him holding the ball for so long, he has been sacked a total of 17 times already this season. That's not exactly unusual for mobile quarterbacks. For example, Lamar Jackson has been sacked 11 times this season. Even Jalen Hurts, who plays behind an excellent offensive line on the Eagles, has been sacked 11 times.
The Commanders could rack up sacks in bunches in this game, given that they already enter the matchup tied for the seventh-most sacks in the league. Someone to focus on for a sacks prop is Montez Sweat. He has at least 1.5 sacks in two of their four games and has generated at least seven sacks in three of his first four seasons in the league.
Commanders vs. Bears Best Bet: Montez Sweat over 0.25 sacks (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Commanders vs. Bears Prediction
The Bears' offense is a mess. Their defense has also struggled and will now play this game without cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson (hamstring), Josh Blackwell (hamstring) and Kyler Gordon (hand). They will also be without safety Eddie Jackson (foot). Combine all of that with this game being played in Washington and it's difficult to envision the Bears earning their first victory of the season.
