Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons

The 10-5 Commanders will look to get their 11th win in this showdown between rookie quarterbacks – second overall selection Jayden Daniels and eighth overall pick Michael Penix – the latter of which is making his second career start. At 8-7 the Falcons have been far from convincing, but they are in the awkward hunt for the NFC South title and will no doubt approach this game with maximum urgency. Washington is favored by 3.5 points and the over/under at 46.0.

QUARTERBACK

Jayden Daniels ($11800 DK, $15500 FD) probably is not an advisable fade, even at high ownership and a high acquisition cost. The Falcons defense is not imposing and Daniels' rushing production makes him an especially dangerous fade on a single-game slate. Stated simply, if Daniels has a bad game then Washington is probably losing, but Washington is expected to win this game.

Michael Penix ($8800 DK, $12500 FD) could get something going here and should benefit from the absence of CB1 Marshon Lattimore, but his starting debut against the Giants was mostly pedestrian. Perhaps the injury-shortened game for Drake London had something to do with that – London is back for this game – but at the very least it's difficult to prioritize Penix over Daniels. Penix's passing production can theoretically be acquired by taking a combination of Atlanta pass catchers, but Daniels' rushing production is only his. Penix has 4.6 speed but almost never runs.

RUNNING BACK

Bijan Robinson ($11000 DK, $16000 FD) is expensive, but that might help contain his ownership percentage a bit in a game where he otherwise carries the highest projection from scrimmage. The Washington defense usually makes a dignified showing but Robinson's ability from scrimmage is substantial enough to grade well even against tougher defenses. Tyler Allgeier ($4000 DK, $9500 FD) lurks as a touchdown vulture but otherwise probably wouldn't see escalated usage unless the game somehow got out of hand, and the Falcons are very much not expected to dominate to that extent here.

Brian Robinson ($9000 DK, $12000 FD) almost lost the game for Washington by fumbling twice last week, but he's never been held accountable for past fumbles and probably won't be here, either, even though Jeremy McNichols ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) and Chris Rodriguez ($2000 DK, $6500 FD) are clearly more threatening from scrimmage. If Robinson gets all the work reserved for him, and it seems like he does, then he's a tough fade here in a game where Washington should move the ball steadily.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Terry McLaurin ($10200 DK, $14000 FD) is a tough fade as the clear WR1 on the favored team. The Falcons offense should be good enough to force Washington to play seriously through four quarters, and McLaurin has double-digit fantasy points in all but three games this year. It's not obvious why the Falcons defense would be the next to slow him. Olamide Zaccheaus ($6400 DK, $7500 FD) has quietly played well as the team's main slot wideout recently, to the point that he might have caught Zach Ertz ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) in the team's target rotation. If the absence of Dyami Brown forces Zaccheaus to play more on the boundary then that would probably be less than ideal for the 5-foot-8 Zaccheaus, but it would potentially open up an opportunity for Jamison Crowder ($3000 DK, $7500 FD), who made an improbable two-touchdown cameo last week. The remaining punt-play route runners are Luke McCaffrey and the blocking tight end duo of John Bates and Ben Sinnott.

Drake London ($9400 DK, $13000 FD) is usually a tough fade and it got tougher yet when the Commanders ruled out top corner Marshon Lattimore, who otherwise might have been a candidate to harass London. If things are going well for Penix then there should be room for London to coexist with Darnell Mooney ($8400 DK, $11000 FD), though Ray-Ray McCloud ($5400 DK, $10000 FD) is an unwarranted candidate to poach usage from either player. McCloud's appeal is that defenses ignore him because he's harmless, though for some reason the Morris-Robinson regime prefers McCloud over the more productive Kyle Pitts ($4800 DK, $8000 FD). One dropped pass last week doesn't define Pitts' career, but it couldn't have helped. Just because Pitts is clearly more productive than McCloud doesn't necessarily matter to Atlanta, and it hasn't all year. Charlie Woerner is a punt play who mostly blocks at tight end. 

KICKER

Riley Patterson ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) is one of two replacement kickers in this game, neither of which are very good. Patterson notably lacks range and is unlikely to strike from beyond 50 yards, but at least he's relatively accurate otherwise, making 61 of his career 70 field goal attempts. The problem in this case is that the Falcons have a less than convincing offense, and if the opportunities are sparse Patterson is unlikely to offset it with range kicks.

Zane Gonzalez ($5200 DK, $9000 FD) projects for some amount of opportunity here as the kicker for the favorite, and he has had some productive stretches throughout his otherwise journeyman career. Gonzalez does not have much range – he's never made more than three field goals from beyond 50 in a given year – so he might need field goal volume to carry him past double-digit fantasy points.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Falcons ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) are probably not an advisable start given their underdog status and complete absence of pass-rushing or turnover potential. If the Falcons pile up sacks or turnovers in a given game it would probably be more because the offense on the other side proved inept, which Washington seems unlikely to do here.

Washington ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) won't have Marshon Lattimore here which makes their pass defense suddenly vulnerable, especially against receivers like London and Mooney. With that said, Penix is unproven at best and if Washington gets an early lead they could see some pass-rushing opportunities.