This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
As far as Holiday Treats go this Sunday night game at Mile High between the Broncos (-7.5) and Patriots seems like a punishment for poor behavior – a lump of coal in a football-shaped wrapped box. Perhaps it's not so bad though, because at least this coal can be used to power showdown slates. With the over/under at just 35.5 and the weather trending toward freezing, defense could very well be the main theme of this game, from either or both sides.
QUARTERBACK
Russell Wilson ($11400 DK, $15500 FD) doesn't exactly have a good projection here but he certainly has a lack of competition, team defenses aside. Wilson rarely throws for much yardage by design, and the conditions here probably don't really suit it, either. But Wilson could have short fields to work with, and he has generally sealed the deal this year when he gets into scoring range. It's usually getting to that point that has proven more difficult.
Bailey Zappe ($8800 DK, $13500 FD) certainly has moxie and could probably make a good coach some day, but his abilities as a passer are profound and require extensive accommodation to keep him out of harm's way. As a traveling underdog the Patriots don't have that luxury, so that could be enough to make Zappe's volume projection trend toward the better. Efficiency and turnovers have and will likely continue to be an issue with Zappe, though the Denver defense is likely among the worst in the league.
RUNNING BACK
As far as Holiday Treats go this Sunday night game at Mile High between the Broncos (-7.5) and Patriots seems like a punishment for poor behavior – a lump of coal in a football-shaped wrapped box. Perhaps it's not so bad though, because at least this coal can be used to power showdown slates. With the over/under at just 35.5 and the weather trending toward freezing, defense could very well be the main theme of this game, from either or both sides.
QUARTERBACK
Russell Wilson ($11400 DK, $15500 FD) doesn't exactly have a good projection here but he certainly has a lack of competition, team defenses aside. Wilson rarely throws for much yardage by design, and the conditions here probably don't really suit it, either. But Wilson could have short fields to work with, and he has generally sealed the deal this year when he gets into scoring range. It's usually getting to that point that has proven more difficult.
Bailey Zappe ($8800 DK, $13500 FD) certainly has moxie and could probably make a good coach some day, but his abilities as a passer are profound and require extensive accommodation to keep him out of harm's way. As a traveling underdog the Patriots don't have that luxury, so that could be enough to make Zappe's volume projection trend toward the better. Efficiency and turnovers have and will likely continue to be an issue with Zappe, though the Denver defense is likely among the worst in the league.
RUNNING BACK
Javonte Williams ($9400 DK, $12000 FD) projects for a substantial workload here but with poor efficiency returns against a New England defense that might be the best against the run. That the Broncos are heavy home favorites implies Williams has improved odds of offsetting any efficiency issues with touchdown opportunities, and looking at Zappe's turnover issues makes it easy to see why. It will be a grind for Williams, but his field positioning should be consistently viable at worst. Samaje Perine ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) and Jaleel McLaughlin ($1800 DK, $70000 FD) should both see their customary workloads as well, and maybe with the chance for more if the Broncos can shut down the New England offense and keep the game script under their control.
Ezekiel Elliott ($10200 DK, $12500 FD) should see a big workload and even has a good on-paper matchup in terms of the defense, but the Patriots offense is a mess and with no passing game to relieve pressure the Broncos should be able to sell out against the run with impunity. Even if that's all true, it still might be difficult to fade Elliott on this slate given the shortage of alternatives. Elliott has played almost every snap the last two weeks, with backup Kevin Harris taking only seven snaps last week, though Harris turned those snaps into four carries for 25 yards and a touchdown.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Courtland Sutton ($11000 DK, $15000 FD) is one of two pillars of the Denver offense, the other being Javonte Williams. As such it's difficult to fade him unless you mean to fade the Broncos' ability to compete in this game (fair enough). In terms of cornerback matchups there's nothing uniquely concerning here, though New England could try to double/triple-team Sutton since their run defense doesn't need any extra help. Jerry Jeudy ($8000 DK, $11000 FD) could benefit if the Patriots successfully sell out to slow Sutton, thus funneling targets elsewhere, though that hasn't happened much in 2023. Marvin Mims ($2800 DK, $6500 FD) is talented but mostly functions as a decoy, while three-down tight end Adam Trautman ($2600 DK, $7500 FD) does his best work as a blocker. TE2 Lucas Krull ($800 DK, $6000 FD) might be the better tight end target in Denver, as he's seen more routes than even Trautman in recent weeks.
DeVante Parker ($5000 DK, $8000 FD) might see a lot of Patrick Surtain, but Zappe has proven fond of Parker and might continue to target him either way. Whether much good comes of those targets is a different question. Demario Douglas ($6800 DK, $10000 FD) is a promising player and could prove productive in this game even if Parker does too, though the matchup isn't guaranteed to be much easier than Parker against Surtain (JaQuan McMillian has been a solid slot corner for Denver). Mike Gesicki ($1600 DK, $7000 FD) could be a good bargain target with Hunter Henry and JuJu Smith-Schuster out. Pharaoh Brown will likely play more snaps than Gesicki but is primarily a blocking specialist.
KICKER
Chad Ryland ($4800 DK, $8500 FD) has been a disaster to the point that it's difficult to sign off on him as a fantasy option, especially since the Patriots are heavy road underdogs. Ryland has made only 13 of his 20 field goal attempts on the year, and the Patriots obviously aren't going to score that often generally.
Wil Lutz ($5200 DK, $9500 FD) is the more likely kicker to target in this game, and his case is a strong one. The Broncos are heavy home favorites and project to have short fields on offense, yet the weak Broncos offense doesn't project to punch in many touchdowns. Lutz is how that gap gets bridged. Lutz is one of the best kickers in the league and this should be one of his best opportunity settings.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Either or both defenses could be cash-viable or even cash-necessary in such a barren slate. The Broncos ($5400 DK, $9000 FD) have the worse defense between the two but are heavy home favorites, and there's major currency in facing off against a quarterback as limited and turnover-prone as Zappe. While the Broncos defense has few players obviously capable of making big plays, there's reason to believe just about any of them could against an offense this bad.
With that said, the Patriots ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) could very well turn this into a war of attrition where no one wins, either by holding the Broncos to single-digit points or maybe even by causing some turnovers. The Broncos have generally avoided turnovers and should continue to do so if they can keep Sutton rolling as a receiver, but it's the Sutton variable that holds up the entire fragile equation of the Broncos offense. Plus, it helps the case for the NE defense that there are so few offensive standout picks in this game.
