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Sunday Night Football Betting Odds and Best Bets for Dolphins vs. Steelers
The Steelers (2-4), fresh off a stunning 20-18 upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, head down to South Florida to play the Miami Dolphins (3-3) in a nationally televised clash between two of the NFL's legacy franchises.
The Dolphins are seeking to snap a worrisome three-game losing streak that was preceded by a highly encouraging 3-0 star to Mike McDaniel's tenure as head coach. Miami gets Tua Tagovailoa back under center for this matchup after he missed the last two games due to significant concussion-related issues.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins for Sunday Night Football Week 7
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Steelers +295 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Dolphins -325 (PointsBet Sportsbook)
Point spread: Steelers +7.5 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Dolphins -7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 45.5 points (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Under 45.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Dolphins opened as solid six-point favorites when this line was first released, and their projected advantage went up to seven shortly thereafter. After a temporary reduction back to six points, it progressively rose again until it reached its current 7.5 number, even with the news that Kenny Pickett is expected suit up for the Steelers.
The total has also been an upward trajectory to its current number of 45.5 points. It opened at a tiny 42.5 when it was first released, and but it quickly went up to 45 shortly after Week 6 results. It subsequently saw plenty of movement Saturday, rising as high as 46 before dipping to 44.5 and then climbing back up another point.
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins Betting Picks This Week
Both teams will get their quarterbacks back from concussion protocol for this matchup, but Tagovailoa's return arguably has a chance to deliver a bigger impact than that of Pickett's. The Dolphins' passing game was competent under Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater while Tagovailoa sat out, but the chemistry the latter had been demonstrating with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle prior to his injury was on a different level altogether.
That connection has a chance to be the pivotal piece in what I envision to be a double-digit Dolphins win Sunday night. Assuming Jaylen Waddle plays through his shoulder injury as expected, Miami will be able to hit a Steelers secondary not yet completely back to full health despite getting Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) back this week with a double-barrel speed threat it's not fully equipped to handle.
Pittsburgh checks in allowing a whopping 312 passing yards per road game, along with 12.3 yards per completion in that split. The Steelers are giving up an even higher 13.8 yards per completion overall in the last three games, making a potential field-stretching attack a particularly bad matchup. Any success the Fins have in hitting some big plays will naturally also loosen up the defense for Raheem Mostert, who faces a matchup that's yielded 141.3 rushing yards per road game thus far this season.
On the other side, Miami will undoubtedly look to come out aggressively versus Pickett, who's certainly shown some very good instincts in his brief action thus far, but who's also thrown four interceptions in three games. The Dolphins have only applied modest pressure thus far (12 sacks in six games), but they've also slowed down opposing ground attacks with regularity (3.7 RB yards per carry allowed), which could make life especially difficult on the rookie.
There could be some plays to be had through the air, especially if Xavien Howard (groin) is unable to play through his injury. However, the potential lack of balance for Pickett, the Dolphins' primetime home crowd and Tagovailoa's return have a very good chance of eventually sinking the Steelers altogether in a relatively low-scoring game.
Steelers at Dolphins Best Bets: Same-Game Parlay: Dolphins moneyline and Under 45.5 points (+156 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins Prediction
Dolphins 27, Steelers 14
The Dolphins will have both the talent and emotional advantage in this spot, and it will manifest itself as the game unfolds. Look for Miami to eventually pull away in what may be a bit of a sluggish game at times, with both sides of the ball rising to the occasion to secure a much-needed double-digit win.
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