This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures Bets: 2024 Bills Win Totals
Betting team wins and other full-season futures requires patience. If placing a bet in the preseason, the payout usually won't occur until January. That said, there are edges to be gained in the betting market. The more knowledge we have about each team's talent on each side of the football provides an edge.
In addition, projecting potential intangibles can add value. Examples of intangibles are teams that add a new coach/coordinator, or teams that made multiple moves to the less glamorous positions on the field. For those who followed this article series I wrote last season, we projected nine teams, winning six for a 66.7 percent win rate. Overall, the series was a moneymaker. This year, we'll look to continue that win percentage.
In this article, we'll look at the Buffalo Bills over 10.5 wins at +130 odds. These odds, as well as all other NFL win totals odds, can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Bills Outlook: Offense
The Bills scored more than 30 points three times during their first four games in 2023. Including the playoffs, Buffalo only went over 27 points three times in their last 15 games. Stefon Diggs was phased out of the offense. Joe Brady was moved into the offensive coordinator role. Diggs is no longer with the team.
The receiver room is now made up of Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. In addition, Dalton Kincaid gives the squad an excellent tight end. At running back, James Cook averaged 2.64 yards per carry in his last five games.
This mostly sounds like doom and gloom; however, the Bills still have Josh Allen under center. Buffalo added running back Ray Davis in the draft to rotate in with Cook. They also used the No. 33 pick in the draft to add Coleman. Last year, the offense scored enough points to get them wins in six of their final seven games. Allen is proof that an elite quarterback is enough to lead a high-end offense.
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Bills Outlook: Defense
Much of the offseason buzz directed at Buffalo was that the salary cap led to them letting go of a number of core players on defense. Although that may be true, the Bills had enough depth that the defense may again be a team strength.
The cornerback trio of Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford and Taron Johnson is well above average. In addition, despite lacking an elite pass rusher, Buffalo legitimately has a front-seven full of players that are above average pass rushers. Finally, ace coverage linebacker Matt Milano is set to return from a broken leg he suffered in Week 5. With coach Sean McDermott calling the defense, this could be a top unit.
Bills Schedule 2024
The schedule is not optimal. Buffalo should have four tough divisional games against the Jets and Dolphins. Although playing against the AFC South is not overwhelming, the remaining two games against AFC teams are matchups with the Chiefs and Ravens. The NFC opponents are the Lions as well as the NFC West.
Best Bet for 2024 Bills Win Total
I'm going with the Buffalo Bills over 10.5 wins at +130 odds. These odds can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Even in a season in which the Bills struggled, they won 11 games last year. In setting this win total, it would seem that the oddsmakers do not believe in the defense. In addition, the wide receiver room likely makes the books wonder how strong the offense will be.
Despite the schedule, Josh Allen and an underrated defense are enough to get this team to 11 wins. The Bills are still a team that can make it to the AFC Championship game. Other than the Chiefs, this remains one of the top teams in the NFL.
