Last week was the first this season with major upsets impacting Survivor. The Packers gift-wrapped a win for the Browns, but the Falcons' blowout loss to the Panthers was the most surprising event of the week. Atlanta never got into the red zone, turned the ball over three times and was shut out by a Carolina team that entered with a bottom-10 defense.
Last week also showed why saving teams is risky. Those who took the Packers or Falcons so as to save the Bills are kicking themselves.
In my pool, 85 were eliminated (21.7 percent), with 65 on the Packers and 11 on the Falcons. Of the original 451 entrants, 306 remain (67.8 percent).
On to Week 4.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Browns | 31.0% | 400 | 80.0% | 6.21 |
| BILLS | Saints | 25.7% | 1500 | 93.8% | 1.60 |
| CHARGERS | Giants | 11.7% | 270 | 73.0% | 3.15 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 9.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 2.36 |
| BRONCOS | Bengals | 9.2% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 2.10 |
| Packers | COWBOYS | 3.6% | 312.5 | 75.8% | 0.87 |
| PATRIOTS | Panthers | 3.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.97 |
| 49ERS | Jaguars | 1.2% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.43 |
| Commanders | FALCONS | 1.1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.51 |
| Seahawks |
Last week was the first this season with major upsets impacting Survivor. The Packers gift-wrapped a win for the Browns, but the Falcons' blowout loss to the Panthers was the most surprising event of the week. Atlanta never got into the red zone, turned the ball over three times and was shut out by a Carolina team that entered with a bottom-10 defense.
Last week also showed why saving teams is risky. Those who took the Packers or Falcons so as to save the Bills are kicking themselves.
In my pool, 85 were eliminated (21.7 percent), with 65 on the Packers and 11 on the Falcons. Of the original 451 entrants, 306 remain (67.8 percent).
On to Week 4.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Browns | 31.0% | 400 | 80.0% | 6.21 |
| BILLS | Saints | 25.7% | 1500 | 93.8% | 1.60 |
| CHARGERS | Giants | 11.7% | 270 | 73.0% | 3.15 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 9.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 2.36 |
| BRONCOS | Bengals | 9.2% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 2.10 |
| Packers | COWBOYS | 3.6% | 312.5 | 75.8% | 0.87 |
| PATRIOTS | Panthers | 3.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.97 |
| 49ERS | Jaguars | 1.2% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.43 |
| Commanders | FALCONS | 1.1% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.51 |
| Seahawks | CARDINALS | 0.8% | 105 | 51.2% | 0.37 |
| BEARS | Raiders | 0.7% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.33 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 0.6% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.27 |
| RAMS | Colts | 0.4% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.15 |
| Vikings | Steelers* | 0.3% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.11 |
| Eagles | BUCCANEERS | 0.2% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.06 |
| RAVENS | Chiefs | 0.1% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.03 |
Home teams in CAPS
*Vikings vs. Steelers at Dublin.
There's no pot-odds play this week. The Bills are huge favorites (-2000, -16.5), but the most popular Survivor pick this week is the Lions, likely because so many rode the Bills last week. You could fade both, but now you're asking for three events (Bills/Lions lose, your team wins) to go your way instead of two, which increases the risk.
Pick your favorite team, but we again caution against saving teams. Having used the Bills last week, we'll take the next team on the list below, the Lions.
MY PICKS
Buffalo Bills
Those who skipped the Bills (and still survived) last week should jump on them this week at home against the Saints. New Orleans' special teams put it in a bad spot last week at Seattle and the offense didn't have near enough firepower to rally. If the Saints get down early, which is likely, the Bills won't let them back in the game. The Bills also have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.
Detroit Lions
The Browns capitalized on an improbable late-game series of events to upset the Packers last week, but the bigger surprise was holding Green Bay to just 10 points. The Lions are coming off a huge, impressive win on Monday Night Football at Baltimore. It's possible they suffer a letdown, but, last week notwithstanding, it's doubtful the Browns could take advantage.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Giants will turn to Jaxson Dart this week, but a rookie quarterback debuting against the Chargers defense isn't a great spot, especially behind an offensive line as bad as New York's. There's also the matter of the Giants' defense being one of the league's worst.
Denver Broncos
It's perhaps a bit surprising more Survivors aren't on the Broncos this week. A backup QB in Jake Browning facing an elite Denver defense is reason enough to be confident of the Broncos, but also factor in that the Bengals' defense is among the dregs of the league. At home on Monday night are additional favorable factors for the Broncos. Against a terrible Cincinnati offensive line, the Broncos should add plenty to their league-leading sack total.
Houston Texans
The Texans aren't great. Their offensive line is a death trap for C.J. Stroud. But the Titans are just that bad. Both are winless and desperate, but the Texans have more talent all around.
NOTABLE OMISSION
None
I could make a case for the Colts or Jaguars, but those would hardly qualify as notable. The Packers, Patriots, Commanders, Seahawks and Bears look like decent-to-safe bets too. Maybe I should be worried I don't see an obvious upset.
