NFL Offseason: 2025 Free Agents and Franchise Tag Candidates

If you're drafting best ball teams or making dynasty trades in February/March, it's important to know which QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs are most likely to join new teams during the offseason. Guys with expiring contracts are at the top of this list, although we also need to consider potential cap casualties and/or trade candidates.

For each player below, I'll provide my guesstimate of his odds to stay with his current team, be it on a new contract or via a franchise tag (or both). I'll also list a couple of noteworthy restricted free agents, although those guys rarely end up switching teams.

Quarterbacks

• Sam Darnold - Tag Candidate

Chances of staying with team: 25%

This felt like a 50/50 proposition as recently as late December, before Darnold played horribly in blowout losses to the Lions and Rams. The Vikings now seem much more likely to move forward with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy (knee) as their definite QB1, with either Nick Mullens, Daniel Jones or a free agent serving as the backup. Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell has sent mixed signals, with the most recent quote being that Darnold has "earned the right to be a free agent." If Darnold does return to the Vikings, he'll likely have to battle McCarthy for the starting job. The most likely outcome? Darnold signs with a new team, and McCarthy is installed as Minnesota's starter. There's also a much less likely scenario in which we get to the same outcome via a tag-and-trade.

• QB Russell Wilson

Chances of staying with team: 25% 

Wilson said in January that he wants to stay in Pittsburgh, but the feeling may not be mutual. A reunion with Pete Carroll in Las Vegas would be interesting, although both parties have declined to comment on the possibility so far.

• QB Justin Fields

Chances of staying with team: 45% 

Art Rooney said the Steelers are unlikely to keep both Fields and Wilson, but it won't be surprising if they keep one of the two. Fields turns 26 in March, and he might also draw interest from the Raiders if he doesn't stay in Pittsburgh. Re-signing in Pittsburgh would make him the favorite for the starting job, but the team could still bring in competition.

• Daniel Jones
• Joe Flacco
• Jameis Winston
•  Marcus Mariota
•  Jacoby Brissett
•  Mac Jones
•  Cooper Rush
•  Mason Rudolph
•  Andy Dalton
•  Trey Lance

Running Backs

• RB Aaron Jones

Chances of staying with team: 50%

Jones gave the Vikings a nice return on his one-year, $7 million contract, with career highs of 255 carries and 1,138 yards, plus 51 catches for 408 yards and seven total touchdowns. He even played every game for the third time in his career, as his only significant injury occurred right before a Week 6 bye. There was a downward trend for both real life and fantasy, however, with Jones failing to score a TD or reach 100 total yards in each of his final four games (including playoffs). 

Last spring, he had to compete with an unusually strong class of free agents at his position. This spring, he'll have much weaker competition from the veterans but much tougher competition from the rookies. It's definitely possible that NFL teams, including the Vikings, won't want to invest much money in a 30-year-old running back before they see what's available in the draft. And it's also possible he ends up splitting time with another RB even if he does stick around in Minnesota and maintain the favorable setup under Kevin O'Connell.

• RB Najee Harris

Chances of staying with team: 30%

Harris might be the first RB ever to start his career with four straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons and still be considered a mild disappointment. He's never missed a game, but he's also never topped 4.1 yards per carry, and his career average of 6.4 yards per reception is extremely low even by RB standards. The 240-pounder does seem like a good fit for what offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to do, and there's an element of uncertainty with backfield mate Jaylen Warren, who is scheduled for restricted free agency.

Warren was an undrafted free agent, which means an original-round tender of $3.2 million wouldn't give the Steelers any pick compensation if he then signed with another team. The other option is a second-round tender, which essentially would ensure Warren doesn't get any offers but would cost the Steelers around $5.2 million. My guess is that Pittsburgh will give Warren the second-round tender and then offer Harris a contract for less than he expects. The result of that process likely would be Harris finding a new team while Warren ends up with a new backfield rate (be it a veteran or rookie).

• RB J.K. Dobbins

Chances of staying with team: 50%

Dobbins was one of the best stories of 2024, bouncing back from a horrific, three-year run of bad injury luck to post a 195-905-9 rushing line and 32-153-0 receiving line in 13 regular-season games. He even finished with 4.6 yards per carry, although largely on the strength of three long runs in his first two games. After Week 2, he averaged 3.8 YPC, never reached 100 rushing yards in a game again and had just three gains of 20-plus yards among his 205 touches (including playoffs). 

Long story short, Dobbins was a competent player but not the same explosive threat we saw at Ohio State and briefly in Baltimore. If he does stay with the Chargers, it won't necessarily be as a sure-thing starter. That said, he's 26 years old and could regain more of his explosiveness with the benefit of a healthy offseason, so Dobbins shouldn't be completely written off in either fantasy or real-life terms.

• RB Rico Dowdle

Chances of staying with team: 50%

Dowdle surprised a lot of people, including me, with his competent showing as the Cowboys' lead back in 2024, finishing with a 235-1,079-2 rushing line (4.6 YPC) and 39-249-3 receiving. His production over the final six weeks of the season was borderline-RB1 territory for fantasy, averaging 109.3 total yards on 22.2 touches (but with only two TDs). The problem for Dowdle is that his pre-2024 track record was unimpressive, featuring a mediocre college career followed by four years of lingering around the bottom of the Cowboys' roster. 

He'll turn 27 in June and may be viewed by NFL teams as a high-end backup more so than a true starter. Dowdle will get some guaranteed money, but it might come from a team that already has an established starter or uses an early pick on another RB. Staying in Dallas is probably best for fantasy, even if we assume the Cowboys will acquire competition on Day 1/2 of the upcoming draft.

•  Jaylen Warren (restricted free agent)

Chances of staying with team: 75%

•  Jordan Mason (restricted free agent)

Chances of staying with team: 40%

•  Nick Chubb
•  Javonte Williams
•  Kareem Hunt
•  Ameer Abdullah
•  Alexander Mattison
•  Ty Johnson
•  Kenneth Gainwell
•  Cam Akers
•  Khalil Herbert             

Wide Receivers

• WR Tee Higgins - Tag Candidate

Chances of staying with team: 65%

There's no shortage of big-name WRs scheduled for free agency, but all besides Higgins are at least 29 years old and either coming off major injuries or poor seasons. Higgins just turned 26 in January after finishing 2024 with career highs for TDs (10), PPR scoring average (18.7) and receptions per game (6.1). The problem was that he played just 12 games for a second straight season, with upper-leg injuries (hamstring/quad/thigh) again being the primary culprit. Through five NFL seasons, he has five hamstring injuries and one quad injury on record, plus a concussion, a rib fracture (one missed game), a shoulder injury (two games) and three minor ankle sprains. 

All that being said, Higgins has played 70 of a possible 84 regular-season games and all seven of Cincinnati's playoff contests, giving him an overall availability rate of 84.6 percent, which isn't far below average for a WR. There have also been five instances of injuries limiting him to less than 50 percent of snaps, which contributed to disappointing PPR averages of 13.7 in 2022 and 11.5 in 2023 (compared to 15.7 in 2021 and 18.7 in 2024). This all makes Higgins a tough evaluation for both real life and fantasy, but I'm guessing the Bengals will want to bet on his talent and hope for better injury luck / see if there's something they can do to limit the hamstring problems. 

A second straight franchise tag would cost around $26 million, and that's presumably what the Bengals will do if they can't sign Higgins within the next few weeks. The question then becomes if the tag is a bridge to a long-term deal (July 15 deadline) or a trade. If neither of those things happens by July 15, there's a good chance Higgins will leave the tag unsigned, remain away from the team and demand a trade. Last summer he signed the tag a month before the July 15 deadline, even though there had been reports of a trade request earlier in the offseason. 

• WR Chris Godwin

Chances of staying with team: 60%

Godwin was a perfect fit for Liam Coen's offense, averaging a career-high 19.7 PPR points in his age-28 season. But he suffered a season-ending ankle dislocation Week 7, and the Jaguars then hired Coen away from the Bucs in January. The good news is that Godwin had surgery just one day after suffering the injury, Oct. 22, which means he should be ready by Week 1. It's less clear if he'll be the same player we saw in 2025, considering he's about to turn 29 and suffered ligament damage in addition to the dislocation. The Bucs are projected for around $3 million in cap space, but they can probably get up to $20-30 million pretty easily with some cuts and/or contract renegotiations, and their only other high-level free agent is 25-year-old linebacker Lavonte David. 

• WR Stefon Diggs

Chances of staying with team: 60%

The situation here is similar to Tampa Bay's, with Houston projected for both minimal cap space and minimal free agents that require large contracts. Diggs is 31 years old and coming off an ACL tear suffered in late October, after already showing signs of decline in late 2023 and early 2024. He was having a nice fantasy season before the injury, but largely on the strength of short receptions and touchdowns, with only one gain of more than 28 yards. Diggs had his lowest marks since 2018 for yards per catch (10.6) and aDOT (8.7), which means the question now is whether he can squeak out another year or two as a No. 2 possession receiver. I certainly won't be the one betting on it, given his age and the severity of his knee injury.

• WR Keenan Allen

Chances of staying with team: 20%

In terms of missed games, 2024 was actually Allen's healthiest season since 2021. In terms of everything else, his age-32 campaign was a disaster, with Allen sinking to 49.6 receiving yards per game after averaging a career high 95.6 in his final season for the Chargers. He had five games of 20-plus PPR points, including all four matchups with the Lions and Vikings, but the production largely came after halftime when Chicago was trailing by multiple scores, and Allen failed to reach double-digit PPR points in each of his other 10 appearances. He was wildly inconsistent for fantasy, and consistently unimpressive in real life. 

The most memorable aspect of his 2024 season was the prominence of Keenan Allen fat jokes, after reports suggested he showed up to training camp about 20 pounds over his usual playing weight of 210 lbs. I'm still not sure if that was accurate and/or part of the problem, but I do know that Allen is coming off a down season and turning 33 in April. That puts him in a similar position as Diggs, hoping to squeak out a couple more years as a possession receiver, with not much chance of topping WR3/4 value in fantasy. Both wide receivers may find that there are only a few teams seriously interested in signing them, and then they may have to decide between chasing a ring or chasing one final payday.

• WR Amari Cooper

Chances of staying with team: 20%

Cooper looked good in Buffalo's loss to Kansas City, catching each of his four targets for 33 yards, but he never became a full-time player after the trade, and he had just one big game for Cleveland prior to the deal. Cooper did stay relatively healthy, per usual, and he's a bit younger than both Diggs and Allen, turning 31 in June. I'd sooner bet on Cooper returning to fantasy relevance than the other two, although it'll likely happen for a new team... or maybe an old one (the Cowboys and Raiders both seem like reasonable fits, no?).

• WR Hollywood Brown

Chances of staying with team: 35% 

The one-year, prove-it deal didn't work out how Brown expected, with a shoulder injury delaying his Chiefs debut until late December. He played at least 65 percent of snaps in each of the three playoff games, but all the playing time yielded just five catches for 50 yards on 13 targets, suggesting the Chiefs might've been better off giving DeAndre Hopkins more run. Brown will turn 28 in June and should draw some interest as a starter, but at this point he may be looking at a lot of clear-out routes rather than a lot of targets. The Chiefs will probably move forward without him, as they have Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice (knee) on rookie contracts. 

• WR Diontae Johnson

Chances of staying with team: 10% 

Johnson isn't all that good of a player and was led to believe otherwise because he lucked into a high-volume role early in his career (for Pittsburgh offenses that lacked receiving threats yet wanted to throw a ton of short passes). He now seems to be disliked throughout the NFL, combining No. 3 receiver talent with No. 1 receiver expectations, and perhaps not really caring who he bothers or offends in the process. Johnson can still find a shot to compete for a starting job if he'll accept humble pie and sign a small contract with a receiver-needy team. If he's not willing to do that, he'll end up pseudo-retired ahead of his age-29 season. Either way, he's not someone I'm targeting in early best-ball drafts.

• WR DeAndre Hopkins

Chances of staying with team: 30%

Hopkins didn't look washed up when he was on the field, but he had just one big game for the Titans and one for the Chiefs, never progressing to full-time status with either team. That may be related to the knee injury he suffered over the summer, or it may just be that he's washed up. Either way, he'll turn 33 in June and may have to settle for an opportunity to compete for a No. 3/4 receiver role. Doing so in Kansas City might make sense for both parties, but it won't surprise me if Hopkins looks elsewhere and thinks he can be a regular starter again. He might even be right, if it turns out his knee was part of the problem in 2024 and is something that can be fixed in short order this offseason. That said, I'm not holding out hope for a return to fantasy prominence. 

•  WR Mike Williams

Chances of staying with team: 25% 

Williams turned 30 in October and was traded a month earlier, but he never became a starter for the Steelers despite scoring a game-winning, 32-yard TD in his first appearance for them. In fact, he then went three straight games without a target, before catching nine passes for 137 yards over his final six appearances (including playoffs). The reason I'm holding out some slight degree of hope here is that Williams was his first year back from an ACL tear. We wouldn't normally expect a guy to look better at 31 than he did at 30, but in Williams' case it's a reasonable possibility.

• WR Dyami Brown

Chances of staying with team: 35% 

It's easy to forget that Brown was a third-round pick and came into the NFL with expectations of developing into a starter. He finally accomplished that, but only at the tail end of his rookie contract, catching 14 passes for 229 yards and a TD in three playoff games. He had a 30-308-1 receiving line in 16-regular-season games, after averaging 9.7 catches for 159 yards and 1.0 TD over his first three seasons. Don't rule out the possibility of some team becoming enamored with Brown's playoff performance and age (he turns 26 midway through next season) and deciding to pay him as a low-end starter. 

The Commanders might even be that team, although I'm guessing they'll first try to keep Brown around for backup money with the idea of securing an upgrade via the draft or free agency. Terry McLaurin and 2024 third-round pick Luke McCaffrey are the only Washington WRs currently under contract for 2025, and McCaffrey doesn't exactly look promising after managing just 168 receiving yards during an age-23 rookie season despite playing 419 snaps.

•  Joshua Palmer
•  Olamide Zaccheaus
•  Noah Brown
•  Demarcus Robinson
•  Darius Slayton
•  Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
•  Tutu Atwell
•  Elijah Moore
•  Mack Hollins
•  Tim Patrick
•  Marquez Valdes-Scantling
•  Brandin Cooks
•  JuJu Smith-Schuster
•  Zay Jones

Tight Ends

• TE Zach Ertz

Chances of staying with team: 50%

Ertz is the headliner of a weak free-agent class at tight end, although the group almost certainly will be strengthened by cap casualties, as there are a slew of starting TEs with sizable contracts that expire after 2025. Ertz proved a bargain for the Commanders on his one-year, $3 million contract in 2024, coming on strong down the stretch to finish with 66-654-7 in 17 regular-season games and 18-155-1 in three playoff appearances. Meanwhile, rookie second-round pick Ben Sinnott barely got on the field, stuck behind both Ertz and blocking specialist John Bates (who is also an impending free agent). Sinnott is faster and stronger than Ertz, but that doesn't mean the Commanders will be ready to turn things over to the youngster rather than re-signing the 34-year-old. The third possibility is that Ertz moves on but is replaced by another veteran or an early draft pick, in which case Sinnott would still be a reserve.

• TE Tyler Conklin

Chances of staying with team: 35%

Conklin is just good enough to be a starter but not good enough that any team would be excited about starting him. He'll turn 30 in July and has never topped 61 receptions, 621 yards or four TDs in a season, which means he's only viable as an endgame pick for best ball until we see where he signs (at which point he could move up slightly but might instead disappear from relevance). TBD if Conklin remains a starter or shifts to a No. 2 TE role. The Jets don't have great alternatives, with 2022 third-round pick Jeremy Ruckert not looking like much more than a backup in his own right.

• TE Juwan Johnson

Chances of staying with team: 35%

Johnson had strong finishes after otherwise quiet seasons in both 2023 and 2024. He'll turn 29 in September and is a competent receiving specialist who seems unlikely to ever progress beyond his established level of production, in part because coaches probably won't want him on the field for a lot of early downs snaps on which blocking is important. Johnson is in play as an endgame pick for best ball, nothing more.

• TE Mike Gesicki

Chances of staying with team: 60%

Gesicki put up a 65-655-2 receiving line for the Bengals last year, catching more passes than he had in the previous two seasons combined for the Dolphins and Patriots. He'll turn 30 in October and still struggles with blocking, but Joe Burrow seemed to like the tight end, even mentioning Gesicki as one of the key players he'd like the Bengals to re-sign this offseason. That's good news for Gesicki's future fantasy value, as we've already seen that he can disappear from relevance in a bad situation. His skill set as a pure receiving specialist makes him a better fit for the Bengals than he would be with most other teams.

•  Austin Hooper
• Tommy Tremble
•  Kylen Granson
•  Mo Alie-Cox
•  Jordan Akins
•  John Bates