NFL Line Movement: NFL Week 8 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 8 Odds (Opening/Current)
Week 8 NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (Chargers -3.0 O/U 44.5) / (Chargers -3.0 O/U 45.0)
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (49ers -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Texans -0.5 O/U 41.5)
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (Bills -7.0 O/U 47.5) / (Bills -7.5 O/U 46.0)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (Patriots -5.5 O/U 42.5) / (Patriots -7.0 O/U 40.5)
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (Falcons -1.5 O/U 46.5) / (Falcons -7.5 O/U 44.5)
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (Ravens -7.0 O/U 48.5) / (Ravens -6.5 O/U 50.5)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles -10.5 O/U 43.5) / (Eagles -7.5 O/U 43.5)
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (Bengals -7.5 O/U 45.5) / (Bengals -6.5 O/U 44.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Bucs -5.5 O/U 45.5) / (Bucs -3.5 O/U 46.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (Broncos -4.5 O/U 45.5) / (Broncos -3.0 O/U 50.5)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Colts -3.5 O/U 44.5) / (Colts -14.0 O/U 47.5)
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (Packers -1.5 O/U 44.5) / (Packers -3.0 O/U 45.5)
Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs -3.5 O/U 48.5) / (Chiefs -10.5 O/U 47.5)
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NFL Week 8 Key Injury News
QB - Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, J.J. McCarthy, Kyler Murray, Bryce Young, Jayden Daniels
RB - Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Tyrone Tracy, Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving, Trey Benson, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Tyrone Tracy, Braelon Allen, Jaylen Warren, Kendre Miller
WR - Malik Nabers, Ricky Pearsall, Darnell Mooney, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Darius Slayton, Jalen Coker, Cedric Tillman, CeeDee Lamb, Jauan Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin, Marvin Harrison, DJ Moore, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Joshua Palmer, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas
TE - Colston Loveland, George Kittle, Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Brenton Strange, Darren Waller
Other notables
OL Landon Dickerson, LB Matt Milano, LB Jack Sanborn, DB Terrion Arnold, S Justin Reid, S Kyle Hamilton, LB Roquan Smith, OL Ronnie Stanley, DT Ed Oliver, OL Taylor Decker, OL Joe Alt, OL Rashawn Slater, OL Jake Matthews, LB Fred Warner, DE Grady Jarrett, DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Trevon Diggs, S Jaylen Reed, DE Maxx Crosby, CB Sauce Gardner
NFL Week 8 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Colts -14 vs Titans
- The lowest spread is 49ers at Texans (-0.5)
- There are 3 games with a line of higher than 7 points (Eagles, Chiefs, Colts)
- The highest total game is Broncos/Cowboys 51.5; the lowest total is Patriots/Browns 40.5
- There are only 3 road favorites in Week 7
- There is a heavy concentration of totals between 42-45 points
- The highest team totals are Colts, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Falcons
- The lowest team totals are Titans, Browns, Giants, Commanders, Dolphins
NFL Week 8 Line Movement
A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most.
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons opened as -1.5 home favorites, but the Dolphins are a bottom-three team in the NFL and look hapless. You have to wonder how much longer their head coach has a job. The Falcons are now -7.5 home favorites and you could argue that number is too low. QB Michael Penix's status for this week could be the reason this number has not climbed higher, but if he is 100 percent, I would put this game at closer to -10. The total has dropped from 46.5 to 44.5.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are looking like the best team in football, and no one could have predicted that two months ago. Their offense is humming, and the Titans are a bottom-three team in football.
The Colts opened just -3.5 home favorites and reopened last week at -11.5 and has now climbed all the way up to -14. FanDuel has a line crossing the key number of 14, settling in at 14.5
The total has gone from 44.5 to 47.0 and with an implied game score of 30.5-16.5, I would really look at the Colts team total over as a must-play.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
These two teams just played on Thursday night and the Giants pulled off the upset at 7 point home dogs. They know come back as 7 point dogs on the road in Philadelphia. The Giants are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Broncos that saw them give up 33 points in the fourth quarter so I wonder where their mental state will be this week. The Eagles have to be up for this game for revenge.
The Eagles were originally -10.5 home favorites, but it now sits at -7 and you can expect money on the Giants again. I will be curious to see if this number drops to -6.5 or less. The Eagles will be popular teaser legs, but so will the Giants.
Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs
When I looked at the opening line I had guessed Chiefs -4.5, and was surprised that is was just -3.5. The number is now a whopping -10.5 because of the status of Jayden Daniels who is most likely not going to play. The reopen was just -4.5, but the Daniels news has this line moving about a full 6 points. Keep in mind the Commanders also have a ton of injuries in the WR corp but that did not move the number as much as the Daniels news.
The total also had a significant move with an opening number of 48.5, but it had peaked at 52.5 and has now fallen back to 48.5.
