NFL Game Previews: Ravens-Raiders Matchup

Baltimore at Las Vegas (+4.5), o/u 50.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

Do you think Ty'Son Williams is excited, or terrified? I guess it depends on whether he's the one responsible for the curse that has wiped out his competition for touches in the Baltimore backfield, or is worried he'll become its next victim. As someone who lucked into multiple shares of the kid before Gus Edwards went down, I hope it's not the former — curses have a tendency for some nasty blowback in the end. The Ravens lost J.K. Dobbins, then Justice Hill, then Edwards in rapid succession, and have since brought in a boatload of veteran backs to try and fill the gaps. The team does seem to like Williams, but the likely outcome of all that attrition is just more reliance on Lamar Jackson. Maybe he'll ever throw it a bit more, with perennial underachiever Sammy Watkins joining Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews as Baltimore's main targets. The Raiders head into their second season in their new Las Vegas digs, and their third under Jon Gruden, but they still don't have a clear direction. The defense is still a bit of a mess and Derek Carr doesn't have anyone other than Darren Waller as a reliable receiving option, which is why Kenyan Drake being the big offseason skill addition is something of a head-scratcher. Head-scratching personnel moves, particularly at wide receiver, are nothing new for Gruden and GM Mike Mayock though (see: Lynn Bowden, Antonio Brown, drafting Henry Ruggs ahead of any other WR in 2020 ...)

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Dobbins (IR, knee), RB Edwards (out, knee), RB Hill (IR, Achilles), WR Rashod Bateman (IR, groin), CB Marcus Peters (out, knee)

LV injuries: RB Josh Jacobs (questionable, toe), RB Jalen Richard (IR, foot), LG Richie Incognito (questionable, calf)

BAL DFS targets: Brown $5,100 DK / $6,200 FD (LV 29th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

LV DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: none

LV DFS fades: Ruggs $4,000 DK / $5,300 FD (BAL third in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Hunter Renfrow $3,500 DK / $5,000 FD (BAL fifth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

Key stat: LV was t-23rd in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 54.2 percent; BAL was 18th in red-zone defense at 62.2 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Williams leads the BAL running backs with 50 yards and a touchdown, but Jackson runs for 70 yards and a score as well while throwing for 240 yards and a TD to Brown. Jacobs picks up 80 yards and a touchdown, while Drake adds 60 scrimmage yards and a score. Carr throws for 280 yards and TDs to Waller and Bryan Edwards, with the latter capped a game-winning comeback in the fourth quarter. Raiders 28-27

Jacksonville at Houston (+3), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's fitting the Sunday slate starts with the most volatile game of the weekend. There's really no telling what to make of this one and last year's stats are basically useless, between Jacksonville's new coach and new QB, and Houston beginning the first stages of its own rebuild by getting rid of J.J. Watt and pretending Deshaun Watson isn't standing right there. Still, using last year's stats at least gives me something to blame when my call is wildly, hilariously wrong. Adding to the mess is that both defenses were fairly awful last year with multiple weak points that weren't totally addressed this offseason. That likely provides an edge to the Jags — Urban Meyer may be a wild card, but offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has a history of adapting to his personnel (run-heavy during Marshawn Lynch's heyday in Seattle, before shifting focus to Russell Wilson and then heading to Detroit and leaning more toward the pass with Matthew Stafford). That probably means Trevor Lawrence will get every opportunity to succeed in the long run, but in Week 1 it could mean a healthy dose of James Robinson against arguably 2020's worst run defense.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: RB Travis Etienne (IR, foot)

HOU injuries: QB Watson (inactive, reasons), RT Charlie Heck (out, COVID-19), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (IR, leg)

JAC DFS targets: Robinson $6,400 DK / $5,900 FD (HOU 32nd in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), DJ Chark $5,800 DK / $6,100 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Marvin Jones $3,600 DK / $5,800 FD (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), James O'Shaughnessy $2,500 DK / $4,600 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

HOU DFS targets: Tyrod Taylor $5,300 DK / $6,800 FD (JAC 31st in YPA allowed, 30th in passing TD% allowed in 2020), Jordan Akins $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

JAC DFS fades: none

HOU DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU was 25th in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 54.0 percent; JAC was 23rd in red-zone defense at 63.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 HOU, average score 20-18 HOU, average margin of victory 14 points. HOU has won every game during that period in which it scored more than seven points; JAC has lost every game in which it scored fewer than 29 

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Robinson rumbles for 110 yards and a touchdown. Lawrence looks the part in his debut, throwing for 270 yards and TDs to Chark and Jones. Phillip Lindsay leads the HOU backfield with 70 combined yards and a score, while Mark Ingram also punches in a short TD. Taylor throws for only 220 yards but does find Brandin Cooks and Akins for touchdowns. Texans 33-27

L.A. Chargers (+1) at Washington, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

This line has moved a full field goal since it opened with the Chargers giving two points, which means this is one of those rare instances where I have to flip my projected score just to avoid a tied result against the spread — my little jury-rigged formula spat out Washington by less than a point, which normally I'd round up to WAS +1 (and what I would have used with the original line). Real man would predict an actual tie, of course, and Murphy's Law now pretty much demands a blowout by the Generic Sports Franchise Name. The story of this game could be told in the trenches, as the Chargers made a concerted effort to beef up the offensive line protecting Justin Herbert, but the rebuilt unit will get a tough test right away against the elite Washington pass rush. The Bolts might not be able to take pressure off their young franchise QB with the running game either, with Austin Ekeler potentially not 100 percent healthy. Washington brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick to put a band-aid on their issues under center, and he's probably got a few more spurts of Fitzmagic left in his arm, but this team's offensive success likely will depend on whether Antonio Gibson can take a big step forward.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: RB Ekeler (questionable, hamstring)

WAS injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (IR, groin)

LAC DFS targets: none

WAS DFS targets: Dyami Brown $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (LAC 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAC DFS fades: Herbert $6,700 DK / $7,600 FD (WAS second in YPA allowed, second in passing yards per game allowed in 2020), Mike Williams $5,500 DK / $5,700 FD (WAS second in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Josh Palmer $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

WAS DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC was ninth in third-down conversions in 2020 at 44.2 percent; WAS was sixth in third-down defense at 37.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ekeler puts together 80 scrimmage yards. Herbert throws for 240 yards and TDs to Keenan Allen and Jared Cook. Gibson gains 90 yards. Fitzpatrick has a sluggish start to his WAS tenure, throwing for 260 yards and a touchdown to Logan Thomas but getting picked off twice. Chargers 17-16

Seattle at Indianapolis (+3), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Russell Wilson cooked up a storm in the first half last year, but when the Seahawks' schedule got tougher, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer didn't adjust and a promising season fizzled. Pete Carroll did adjust, though, sending Schottenheimer packing and bringing in Shane Waldron from Sean McVay's coaching tree to spruce up the passing game. That should be good news for Russ, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (and also Gerald Everett, who followed Waldron north from Los Angeles), but Carroll isn't likely to let the new guy forget about the running game entirely — although given the MVP form Wilson flashed last year before things fell apart, maybe he should. The Colts brought in another new QB after getting by for one year with Philip Rivers, and this time it's one who (technically) has a Super Bowl ring in Carson Wentz. Wentz was absolutely awful in 2020, but it's hard to tell how much of that was bad habits and regression, and how much was him just trying to do too much behind an injury-riddled offensive line and without any wide receivers he trusted. The former issue at least shouldn't be a problem in Indy, and while Wentz won't have T.Y. Hilton around to begin the year, Michael Pittman could be his new best buddy. The Colts' offense should flow through Jonathan Taylor, though, as the second-year back looks to continue riding the momentum that saw him pile up 819 rushing yards and eight TDs over his final seven games, including the postseason.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: none

IND injuries: WR T.Y. Hilton (IR, neck), LT Eric Fisher (out, Achilles), LG Quenton Nelson (questionable, foot), CB Xavier Rhodes (out, calf)

SEA DFS targets: none

IND DFS targets: Nyheim Hines $5,000 DK / $5,400 FD (SEA 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

SEA DFS fades: Chris Carson $5,900 DK / $6,700 FD (IND second in YPC allowed, second in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020)

IND DFS fades: Jonathan Taylor $8,000 DK / $7,900 FD (SEA fifth in YPC allowed, fifth in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020)

Key stat: SEA was fourth in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 73.2 percent; IND was 15th in red-zone defense at 61.5 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Carson bangs out 60 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) and one to Freddie Swain. Taylor manages 80 yards. Wentz has a strong Indy debut, throwing for 280 yards and three scores of his own by hitting Pittman, Hines and Parris Campbell, but he can't engineer a late comeback. Seahawks 30-24

N.Y. Jets (+4) at Carolina, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Of course these two teams play in Week 1. The Jets roll into Charlotte with a new franchise quarterback in Zach Wilson, the second overall pick in the 2021 draft. Weirdly, Wilson became kind of the forgotten man among this crop of first-round QBs as even Mac Jones seemed to get more column inches and pixels devoted to his progress, but the BYU product looked sharp in what preseason action he got and has a potentially solid cast of receivers to throw to, especially if someone like rookie Elijah Moore or second-year player Denzel Mims take the leap. The guy Wilson replaces, of course, will be his Week 1 opponent. San Darnold got dealt to the Panthers in the offseason after three seasons of occasional promise but mostly disappointment. The 2018 third overall pick gets a serious upgrade in talent on the outside with DJ Moore and another former Jet in Robby Anderson, and of course the Jets can only dream of having someone like Christian McCaffrey in their backfield. Whether Darnold can climb out of the developmental hole he wound up in and take advantage of that receiving talent is the big question looming over Carolina's season, but a healthy CMac is one of the few true bell cows left in the NFL, the young defense is coming along, and coach Matt Rhule seems like he'll be able to adjust even if the passing game remains mediocre. If Darnold is more than just adequate, this could be a playoff team.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: WR Jamison Crowder (out, COVID-19)

CAR injuries: RG John Miller (questionable, COVID-19), CB A.J. Bouye (out, suspension)

NYJ DFS targets: Michael Carter $4,000 DK / $5,300 FD (CAR 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

CAR DFS targets: DJ Moore $6,100 DK / $6,700 FD (NYJ 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

NYJ DFS fades: none

CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ were 32nd in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 42.1 percent; CAR was 21st in red-zone defense at 63.2 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Tevin Coleman leads the NYJ backfield with 60 rushing yards, while Carter adds 60 combined yards. Wilson throws for 260 yards and TDs to Corey Davis and Tyler Kroft but gets picked off twice. McCaffrey racks up 120 scrimmage yards and a score. Darnold isn't terribly impressive, throwing for 240 yards and a touchdown to Anderson, but he avoids mistakes and lets his team do the rest. Panthers 20-17

Minnesota at Cincinnati (+3), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Just about everything went right for the Vikings last year offensively. Dalvin Cook was huge, Justin Jefferson set records and Kirk Cousins ... well, he was Kirk Cousins, just moreso. On the other side of the ball, though, everything fell apart. In his prior nine seasons as a defensive coordinator or head coach, no Mike Zimmer team had finished lower than 14th in yards allowed or 11th in points allowed. In 2020, Minnesota finished 27th and 29th in those categories. The Vikings couldn't stop the run or the pass, and the offense just couldn't dig the team out of all those holes. Injuries played a big part in that fall from grace, and the team retooled its secondary in the offseason to support the hopefully healthy return of Danielle Hunter and, oh, Anthony Barr's already hurt again. The Bengals' rebuild was supposed to start gaining traction last year, but Joe Burrow's knee injury put things on hold down the stretch. Cincy did add Ja'Marr Chase to their franchise QB's supporting cast, but the big question is whether the offensive line can keep Burrow upright. The team also added some defensive pieces, including Trey Hendrickson to bolster a woeful pass rush, but the best-case scenario this season could be a team that loses a lot of shootouts.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: TE Irv Smith (IR, knee), LT Christian Darrisaw (out, groin), LB Barr (out, knee)

CIN injuries: CB Trae Waynes (out, hamstring)

MIN DFS targets: Cook $9,100 DK / $9,400 FD (CIN 31st in YPC allowed, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020)

CIN DFS targets: Tee Higgins $4,700 DK / $6,000 FD (MIN 28th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

MIN DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN was sixth in red-zone conversion in 2020 at 71.2 percent; CIN was 24th in red-zone defense at 63.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, 12 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook erupts for 140 scrimmage yards and two TDs. Cousins throws for 290 yards and touchdowns to Jefferson and Dede Westbrook. Joe Mixon responds with 90 yards and a score. Burrow throws for 300 yards and TDs to Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but it's not enough. Vikings 31-27

Arizona (+3) at Tennessee, o/u 52.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Cardinals made it clear that they intend to be in the playoffs this season. Offseason additions like A.J. Green and J.J. Watt may be past their primes, but they should still provide upgrades, and Kyler Murray may not have found his ceiling yet as a passer. (It's hard to expect him to do more than he did on the ground in 2020). Of course, that just puts more pressure on Kliff Kingsbury to get them there, and the jury's still very much out on whether he's up to that task. As for the Titans, they also brought in some big-name talent to help them get over the hump, but in their case anything less than an AFC championship game appearance would probably be a disappointment. Julio Jones joins A.J. Brown in one of the league's elite receiving duos, and Bud Dupree is expected to give a jolt to the pass rush. This is still Derrick Henry's team, though, and as long as the two-time rushing champ doesn't fall off the same cliff Earl Campbell did back in the day due to his massive workload, Tennessee will be among the favorites in the conference.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: none

TEN injuries: K Sam Ficken (questionable, groin)

ARI DFS targets: Maxx Williams $2,700 DK / $4,300 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2020) 

TEN DFS targets: none

ARI DFS fades: Cardinals DEF $2,100 DK / $3,400 FD (TEN second in giveaways, fourth in points per game in 2020)

TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN was fifth in third-down conversion in 2020 at 46.2 percent; ARI was 12th in third-down defense at 39.6 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-80s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chase Edmonds picks up 70 combined yards and a TD while James Conner adds 50 rushing yards. Murray also rushes for a score while throwing for 240 yards and touchdowns to DeAndre Hopkins and Williams. Henry thunders for 90 yards and two scores. Ryan Tannehill throws for 280 yards and three TDs, finding A.J., Julio (who tops 100 yards) and Jeremy McNichols. Titans 38-31

San Francisco at Detroit (+7.5), o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's all just a little bit of history repeating. Just as they did in 2012, the 49ers head into 2021 with a young, mobile QB pushing hard for the starting job behind an incumbent. Jimmy Garoppolo is no Alex Smith, though, and Trey Lance was taken third overall in his draft class rather than 36th as Colin Kaepernick was, so it may not take a concussion to get Jimmy G out of the way. A healthier defense is the real key to their fortunes this season, though. The Lions are staring down the barrel of a really bad campaign, but to be honest, I kind of like how they're going about their rebuild. Getting Jared Goff back in the Matthew Stafford deal buys them up to four years in which to find their next franchise QB, and in the meantime they already have the pieces in place for a solid O-line and can restock the defense and skill players. The cupboard is really bare in the latter area, though, with D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson really the only guys worth getting too excited about.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Jeff Wilson (out, knee), DT Javon Kinlaw (doubtful, knee), CB Emmanuel Moseley (doubtful, knee)

DET injuries: LT Taylor Decker (out, finger), DE Michael Brockers (questionable, shoulder)

SF DFS targets: Jimmy Garoppolo $5,500 DK / $6,900 FD (DET 32nd in YPA allowed, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TD% allowed in 2020), Raheem Mostert $5,800 DK / $6,100 FD and Trey Sermon $4,500 DK / $5,200 (DET 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), Deebo Samuel $5,900 DK / $6,300 FD (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

DET DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none

DET DFS fades: Tyrell Williams $4,400 DK / $5,400 FD (SF first in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Hockenson $4,900 DK / $5,700 FD (SF third in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

Key stat: SF was eighth in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 67.3 percent; DET was 31st in red-zone defense at 72.3 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Mostert jets for 110 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, while Sermon begins his career with 70 yards and a TD. Garoppolo throws for 250 yards and a second score to Deebo. Swift gains 70 yards and a TD as well, while Goff looks OK in his Detroit debut, throwing for 270 yards and a score to Quintez Cephus. 49ers 31-23

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at Buffalo, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The one team I've had a very bad feeling about all preseason has been the Steelers. Sure, Ben Roethlisberger didn't look completely washed in his brief exhibition action and has a trio of nice receivers to throw to, and yeah, the defense still has a lot of talent, but the offensive line is sus and I'm not really sold on Najee Harris as anything more than a volume guy. (To be fair, last time they handed the backfield over to a guy named Harris it worked out pretty well.) Maybe that's it, though. The organization seems more intent on still looking like "The Steelers" than it is actually putting together a winning roster, or for that matter a winning coaching staff. Randy Fitchner, last year's offensive coordinator, was an internal hire that didn't work out, but the only thing new OC Matt Canada seems to have going for him is that he's a good interview -- between 2011 and 2018, he was a college OC for hire, bouncing through six different programs, and I'll need to be convinced he isn't the football equivalent of this guy. A Week 1 assignment in Buffalo isn't going to give Pittsburgh a chance to ease the new additions into the fold, either. The Bills are a legit Super Bowl contender as long as Josh Allen's huge step forward last year wasn't a mirage, and there's really no reason to think it will be. They've got a strong defense, Stefon Diggs, and a solid backfield duo in Devin Singletary and Zack Moss that would get more credit if Allen didn't keep hogging all the goal-line carries.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: RT Zach Banner (IR, knee), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed)

BUF injuries: WR Emmanuel Sanders (questionable, foot)

PIT DFS targets: none

BUF DFS targets: Diggs $7,600 DK / $7,900 FD (PIT 24th in DVOA vs. WR1)

PIT DFS fades: JuJu Smith-Schuster $6,200 DK / $6,400 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Chase Claypool $5,600 DK / $6,000 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

BUF DFS fades: Cole Beasley $4,400 DK / $5,500 FD (PIT second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), Dawson Knox $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE in 2020)

Key stat: BUF was first in third-down conversions in 2020 at 49.7 percent; PIT was fifth in third-down defense at 37.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, 11-12 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris gains 70 yards and a score in his NFL debut. Ben throws for 240 yards and a TD to Diontae Johnson. Singletary leads the BUF backfield with 70 combined yards. Allen throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Diggs and Gabriel Davis while running for 40 yards and a TD of his own. Bills 24-20

Philadelphia (+3) at Atlanta, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT

I freely admit the way I compile projections in the early part of a season — which leans heavily on last year's stats — is going to do the Eagles no favors. They shouldn't be anywhere near as bad as they were in 2020, as the offensive line is mostly healthy again and they at least tried to patch together a better secondary. Still, though, I look at Jalen Hurts' atrocious completion percentage after he took the reins — 51.0 percent over that last five weeks! That would have been bad in the '80s, much less the current era — and the organization's inability to develop a wide receiver since ... umm... DeSean Jackson, I guess, and I wonder whether expectations are still way too high for this offense. Hurts will have fantasy value from his scrambling, but that doesn't necessarily mean wins, and right now a campaign like Josh Allen's rookie season wouldn't be at all surprising. The Falcons have the opposite problem. Scoring points shouldn't be a issue even with Julio Jones dealt away, as Matt Ryan can still sling it, Calvin Ridley can still catch it, Mike Davis should at least stabilize the backfield and almost everyone (cough) seems to agree Kyle Pitts is a generational talent, but it's the rest of the roster that's a concern.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: S Rodney McLeod (out, knee)

ATL injuries: none

PHI DFS targets: none

ATL DFS targets: Ridley $7,900 DK / $8,100 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020), Russell Gage $5,300 DK / $5,700 FD (PHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

PHI DFS fades: none

ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: ATL was 26th in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 53.4 percent; PHI was 26th in red-zone defense at 64.7 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Miles Sanders picks up 80 yards. Hurts runs for 50 yards and a score and throws for 230 yards and a TD to Dallas Goedert, but he gets picked off twice. Davis grinds out 90 combined yards and a score. Ryan throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Ridley (who tops 100 yards) twice and Pitts once. Falcons 37-23

Cleveland (+5.5) at Kansas City, o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

There's nothing quite like immediate feedback, is there? The Browns open the season on the road against the team that bounced them out of the playoffs last year, and while they didn't really have a busy offseason beyond beefing up the defensive line with Jadeveon Clowney and Malik Jackson, they return all the pieces they need to get over that hump. While it would be nice if Baker Mayfield suddenly became elite, he did show some improvement in his third NFL campaign, particularly with ball security, and given the roster around him he doesn't need to fire up 350 yards a game to keep Cleveland competitive. Having a healthy Odell Beckham would help a lot too. As for Kansas City, while I'm not convinced there's a "Super Bowl hangover" effect for the losers so much as it's just tough to keep a successful roster together in the salary cap era, the team didn't really lose anyone critical and the front office has put a lot of work into retooling an offensive line that was held together by spit, chewing gum and prayers against the Bucs. It's also hard to imagine too steep a dropoff from an offense with Patrick Mahomes at the helm firing darts to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Their run defense is still arguably a weak point, but only on a per-play basis — their best defense against teams running the ball remains the fear Mahomes puts in offensive coordinators that they can't waste time scoring points, and have to air it out to keep pace.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: WR Beckham (questionable, knee), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), DE Clowney (questionable, illness), S Ronnie Harrison (questionable, ankle), S Grant Delpit (questionable, hamstring)

KC injuries: DE Frank Clark (questionable, hamstring), S Tyrann Mathieu (questionable, COVID-19) 

CLE DFS targets: Nick Chubb $7,200 DK / $7,700 FD and Kareem Hunt $5,500 DK / $6,000 FD (KC 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

KC DFS targets: Byron Pringle $3,300 DK / $4,700 FD (CLE 30th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

CLE DFS fades: none

KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC was third in third-down conversions in 2020 at 49.0 percent; CLE was 23rd in third-down defense at 43.9 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 80s, 11-14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chubb gallops for 120 yards and a score, while Hunt adds 70 combined yards and a receiving TD. Mayfield throws for 250 yards and a second touchdown to David Njoku. Clyde Edwards-Helaire puts together 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Mahomes lights it up for 350 yards and four scores, hitting Kelce (who tops 100 yards) twice and Hill and Pringle once each. Kansas City 38-27

Green Bay vs. New Orleans (+4) in Jacksonville, o/u 50.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Aaron Rodgers gave Packers fans a collective panic attack for a while there in the offseason, but like the dude he admires so much, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there in Green Bay, tossin' red-zone slants to Davante Adams and generally makin' chicken salad out of, well, that other thing. The backfield could look a little different behind him depending on how heavily AJ Dillon gets involved — having a road grader like him chew up yards and clock could help prevent a 37-year-old quarterback from wearing down too much over a schedule that's now one week longer — but getting the second-year back some carries at the goal line could also help stave off the inevitable regression from their historic success rate inside the 20 last year. The Saints have already moved on from a future Hall of Fame QB, as Drew Brees hung up his cleats, and the offense will now be in the hands of Jameis Winston (when it's not in the hands of Taysom Hill for some bit of trickery). The last time we saw Winston as a starter with the Bucs in 2019, he was topping 5,000 yards while leading the league in INTs. In fact, he was the first QB to get picked off at least 30 times in a season since Vinny Testaverde in 1988 (also with Tampa Bay ... no wonder it's still so weird seeing Brady in a Bucs uniform). Maybe Sean Payton has tamed Winston's erratic tendencies, but the 27-year-old also doesn't have much of an established receiving corps to throw to. Michael Thomas will be out for a while, Tre'Quan Smith also landed on the IR to begin the year, and Jared Cook left in the offseason. That still leaves Alvin Kamara, of course, but if Winston's going to come anywhere near 5k again, somebody — and perhaps multiple somebodies — will need to step up. Losing a home game to Hurricane Ida to begin the season isn't great either, but Payton at least has some experience keeping his squad focused while they're forced to be nomads.

The Skinny

GB injuries: LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), OLB Za'Darius Smith (questionable, back)

NO injuries: WR Thomas (out, ankle), WR Smith (IR, hamstring), K Wil Lutz (IR, abdomen), CB Bradley Roby (out, suspension)

GB DFS targets: none

NO DFS targets: Kamara $8,600 DK / $8,600 FD (GB 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

GB DFS fades: Aaron Jones $6,800 DK / $7,400 FD (NO second in rushing DVOA, fourth in YPC allowed, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Robert Tonyan $4,200 DK / $5,400 FD (NO second in DVOA vs. TE in 2020) 

NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB was first in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 80.0 percent -- the best mark since the NFL began tracking the stat in 1999; NO was 29th in red-zone defense at 68.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-80s, 12 mph wind, 25-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones leads the GB backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Dillon bangs in a short score. Rodgers throws for 300 yards and touchdowns to Adams and Randall Cobb. Kamara piles up 130 combined yards and two scores. Winston throws for 240 yards and a TD to Deonte Harris but gets picked off twice. Packers 34-21

Denver at N.Y. Giants (+3), o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Poor Broncos fans. The team was publicly linked to a deal for Aaron Rodgers in an offseason when a lot of other QBs got traded, and had a chance in a loaded draft class to acquire a new franchise quarterback with the ninth overall pick, but instead Denver will head into Week 1 with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Considering the strength of the defense and receiving corps, this roster could legitimately be a top QB away from being a Super Bowl contender, so you do have to wonder what the organization was thinking. It'd be like if, instead of getting Peyton Manning back in the day, they'd settled for Matt Moore. The Giants aren't in better shape, though. Daniel Jones put a lot of doubt in people's minds whether he can be the guy over the long haul, and while the defense was improved in 2020, merely good could be the unit's ceiling. Getting Saquon Barkley back healthy and having some continuity on the offensive line would at least take the pressure off Jones to be a difference-maker, but he doesn't exactly seem suited to become a bus driver.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: OLB Bradley Chubb (questionable, ankle)

NYG injuries: RB Saquon Barkley (questionable, knee), TE Evan Engram (out, calf), CB Adoree' Jackson (questionable, ankle)

DEN DFS targets: KJ Hamler $3,100 DK / $5,100 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), Broncos DEF $3,300 DK / $4,100 FD (NYG t-29th in sacks allowed, 31st in points per game in 2020)

NYG DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none

NYG DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG were 31st in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 46.3 percent; DEN was first in red-zone defense at 47.5 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, 10-13 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Javonte Williams leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Melvin Gordon adds 50 yards. Bridgewater throws for only 210 yards but doesn't make any mistakes. Barkley returns with 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Jones throws for 260 yards and a TD to Sterling Shepard but gets picked off twice, the second of which sets up the game-winning field goal for Brandon McManus. Broncos 16-14

Miami (+3) at New England, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Year 3 of the Brian Flores era in Miami doesn't look a lot different than Year 2. The defense remains a strength, and the Dolphins have arguably the best secondary in football, but the jury is still out on Tua Tagovailoa and the young QB isn't surrounded by a wealth of talent on offense, though Jaylen Waddle could emerge as a No. 1 receiver. Small but speedy wideouts like him tend to need a big-armed QB to truly blossom though, and Tua has yet to prove he can be that guy — or for that matter, the coaching staff has yet to show they'll even give him a chance to prove it. The Patriots are also turning to a young quarterback, jettisoning Cam Newton after one bad season and installing 15th overall pick Mac Jones under center. Jones' accuracy and anticipation were his calling card in college, but he has to show he's got the arm talent to make that package work against NFL defenses. He also has a hodge-podge of castoffs and offseason signings for a receiving corps, so the whole passing game could take a while to gel even if Jones is the real deal. Bill Belichick is the one with the reputation for befuddling inexperienced QBs, but the tables could be turned in this one.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: WR Will Fuller (out, suspension), LT Austin Jackson (questionable, COVID-19)

NE injuries: WR Nelson Agholor (questionable, ankle), CB Stephon Gilmore (out, quadriceps), CB Jalen Mills (questionable, ankle)

MIA DFS targets: Myles Gaskin $6,000 DK / $6,000 FD (NE 32nd in rushing DVOA in 2020)

NE DFS targets: James White $4,400 DK / $4,800 FD (MIA 26th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020)

MIA DFS fades: none

NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: NE was t-23rd in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 54.2 percent; MIA was seventh in red-zone defense at 57.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 NE, average score 29-18 NE, average margin of victory 15 points. The last four season series have been splits, but NE's four wins have been by an average score of 34-9

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, 10-12 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Gaskin dashes for 80 yards, but Malcolm Brown vultures a short TD. Tagovailoa throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Waddle. Damien Harris leads the NE backfield with 60 yards and a TD, while White adds 60 combined yards. Jones throws for less than 200 yards but does find Jakobi Meyers for a score. Dolphins 20-17

Chicago (+7.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Matt Nagy must be a great guy to play poker with. Absolutely nobody is buying the "Andy Dalton is my starting QB" shtick, and 11th overall pick Justin Fields taking over in Week 2 after the veteran gets thrown to the wolves ... err, Rams in Week 1 seems almost like a foregone conclusion. To be fair, Fields didn't exactly look completely ready as a passer in preseason, and Nagy isn't known for making the smartest decisions, so maybe he really means to stick with Dalton for as long as possible. Heck, maybe Nick Foles sneaks in there for a start or two until Fields finally gets his chance, who knows? The team did bring in 39-year-old Jason Peters to stabilize the offensive line, but the unit is so thin that Peters will have to slide back to left tackle rather than staying at left guard, a move that helped prolong his career with the Eagles. Los Angeles went all in this offseason, trading for Matthew Stafford to perk up the passing game after Jared Goff regressed, and then picking up Sony Michel to bolster the backfield after Cam Akers was lost for the year. I guess the idea is that between Michel and Darrell Henderson, at least one of them should be healthy for all 17 games, but it's still curious the front office didn't also try to sign a veteran like Latavius Murray, or Le'Veon Bell or Devonta Freeman, or whoever else the Ravens sign next. (There's always Todd Gurley ...) Aaron Donald and the defense are still the strength of the club, and if Stafford can get more out of a solid group of receivers, the Rams will be in the Super Bowl conversation.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), WR Darnell Mooney (questionable, back), OLB Khalil Mack (questionable, groin), OLB Robert Quinn (questionable, back), ILB Danny Trevathan (IR, knee), S Tashuan Gipson (questionable, back)

LAR injuries: RB Akers (IR, Achilles)

CHI DFS targets: none

LAR DFS targets: Van Jefferson $3,600 DK / $4,900 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020), Rams DEF $4,400 DK / $4,900 FD (second in sacks, first in points per game allowed in 2020)

CHI DFS fades: Dalton $4,900 DK / $6,500 FD (LAR first in YPA allowed, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in passing TD% allowed in 2020), David Montgomery $5,700 DK / $7,100 FD (LAR third in YPC allowed, third in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020), Mooney $4,000 DK / $5,500 FD (LAR first in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020)

LAR DFS fades: Henderson $5,600 DK / $6,400 and Michel $4,800 DK / $5,200 FD (CHI t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2020), Robert Woods $5,700 DK / $6,500 FD (CHI second in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2020)

Key stat: CHI was 31st in third-down conversions in 2020 at 34.6 percent; LAR were third in third-down defense at 35.4 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: David Montgomery manages 50 yards. Dalton throws for 230 yards and a TD to Allen Robinson but gets picked off twice and sacked five times. Henderson leads the LAR backfield with 60 yards, while Michel adds 40. Stafford makes a splashy Hollywood debut, throwing for 290 yards and three touchdowns to Cooper Kupp, Jefferson and Tyler Higbee. Rams 24-13
 

Dallas (+8) at Tampa Bay, o/u 51.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Most of the focus on what went wrong for the Cowboys last season landed on Dak Prescott's season-ending ankle injury, but there's a strong argument that it was only the third-worst thing to happen to the team in 2020 after 1) a rash of injuries that wiped out the offensive line, and 2) the hiring of Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator. Fortunately for Dallas, all three calamities have resolved themselves, though All-Pro right guard Zack Martin will miss Week 1 due to COVID-19. Prescott's back, though, as are tackles Tyron Smith and La'el Collins, and former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has taken over as the new DC. Quinn has pretty much a ground-up rebuild ahead of him, but first-round pick Micah Parsons is a great building block, and DeMarcus Lawrence could still have something left in the tank. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, may have fared a little better last season. Tom Brady made a strong case that Bill Belichick owes a big part of his coaching reputation to his former QB, rather than vice versa, by bringing home another ring in his first campaign with the Bucs. The team returns almost all the key pieces from its Super Bowl-winning roster while making some upgrades on the margins with the likes of Giovani Bernard, which means that dominant front seven is back to wreak havoc. Both teams feature elite groups of receiving options for an elite quarterback, so this game could easily become a shootout, but if Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul, Devin White, et al., come out of the gates firing, Prescott's return could be a rough one.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: RG Martin (out, COVID-19)

TB injuries: S Jordan Whitehead (out, hamstring)

DAL DFS targets: CeeDee Lamb $8,200 DK / $10,000 FD 

TB DFS targets: Chris Godwin $8,600 DK / $12,500 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2020), Rob Gronkowski $5,400 DK / $7,500 FD (DAL 29th in DVOA vs. TE in 2020), Buccaneers DEF (fifth in sacks, t-fifth in takeaways, DAL t-27th in giveaways in 2020)

DAL DFS fades: Ezekiel Elliott  $9,600 DK / $14,000 FD FD (TB first in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in rushing TDs allowed in 2020), Michael Gallup $6,200 DK  / $9,000 (TB first in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2020)

TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: TB was seventh in red-zone conversions in 2020 at 68.9 percent; DAL was 17th in red-zone defense at 61.8 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Elliott gets held to 70 combined yards. Prescott looks good, throwing for 270 yards and touchdowns to CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard. Leonard Fournette leads the Bucs backfield with 90 scrimmage yards and a score, while Ronald Jones coughs up a fumble that Parsons returns to the house in his NFL debut. Brady slings it for 300 yards and TDs to Mike Evans and Gronk. Buccaneers 30-21

2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1,114-672-6, 859-867-66 ATS, 610-644-26 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)