NFL Game Previews: Monday Night Matchups

EARLY SUNDAY

Dallas (+2.5) at Carolina, o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While the Cowboys haven't been eliminated from the postseason picture quite yet, it's just a matter of time. Even if they win out – a tall task considering they end their schedule with games against three playoff teams in the Bucs, Eagles and Commanders – a 9-8 record probably isn't enough in a conference where there are already three non-division leaders with at least eight wins. I will give Mike McCarthy credit for rallying his team, though. Dallas was 3-5 when Dak Prescott went down and promptly lost its next two contests by a combined score of 68-16, but since then the 'Boys have played three straight one-score games and gone 2-1. Rico Dowdle has done well of late behind a makeshift offensive line, running fore 329 yards and a TD over those three contests, but the passing game remains mired in the mud, with Cooper Rush managing just a 61.6 percent completion rate and 6.3 YPA, albeit with a respectable 5:1 TD:INT. CeeDee Lamb isn't fully healthy, and no one else has stepped up as a reliable target, so Rush's struggles are understandable. The defense has found its groove again to an extent though, and while allowing 24.3 points and 364 yards over the last three games is nothing special, 12 sacks and six takeaways has kept the team in each contest. Injuries are beginning to pile up on that side of the ball again too though, as DeMarvion Overshown was lost to a knee injury and the secondary still isn't quite at full strength.

The Panthers have lost three straight games, but it was to three division leaders and by a combined 12 points, which is about as impressive as a three-game losing streak can get. Dave Canales has the team pointed in the right direction, and Jonathon Brooks' latest serious knee injury seems more like the kind of thing that will rally the locker room than hurt the team's production given how little the rookie RB had been used so far. Since Adam Thielen returned to give him a a reliable top receiver, Bryce Young has been a little less erratic and a little more confident, and he's starting to make plays that remind you why he was the first overall pick in 2023. The defense needs more work than the offense – Carolina's dead last in pressure rate, and it hasn't produced at least one takeaway in back-to-back games since Weeks 3-4 – but this is a team that's pushed both Kansas City and Philly to the wall since its Week 11 bye.

Key Info

DAL injuries: EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, personal), LB DeMarvion Overshown (out, knee), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, knee)
CAR injuries: RB Jonathon Brooks (IR, knee), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee), LB Josey Jewell (questionable, hamstring), LB Trevin Wallace (out, shoulder)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DAL DFS targets: Cooper Rush, Jake Ferguson
CAR DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST

Weather notes: 40-50 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Dowdle splashes for 80 yards and a TD. Rush throws for under 200 yards but hits Ferguson for a touchdown. Chuba Hubbard gains 100 yards and a score. Young throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Thielen, and makes up for taking a safety by leading a late drive for the game-winning FG. Panthers 17-16

Kansas City at Cleveland (+4.5), o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Another week, another miraculous escape for Kansas City, who needed a Matthew Wright last-second field goal to clank off the upright and still go through to beat the Chargers. The defending champs have won three straight, but only by a total of seven points, and two of them were against teams currently slated for top-five picks in 2025. Patrick Mahomes' numbers remain completely pedestrian – during the latest win steak he's avoided throwing an interception, but his 64.2 percent completion rate, 6.5 YPA and 5:0 TD:INT are far from MVP-level production. Isiah Pacheco doubled his workload last week and seems to be just about back at full speed, but none of the team's top pass-catchers have made any kind of big impact since Week 9, when DeAndre Hopkins went off for an 8-86-0 line line while Travis Kelce added a 14-100-0 line. Yeah, Noah Gray's had a couple multi-touchdown games in there, but if you're relying on a fourth-year backup tight end to be your clutch source of points, it's not a great sign. The defense has held three of its last six opponents to 17 points or less, but it isn't generated many splash plays, notching 12 sacks and only two takeaways over that stretch. Kansas City has the AFC West locked up and a two-game lead on Buffalo for the No. 1 seed in the conference, but this is not a team that looks much like it's getting back to the Super Bowl without more help from whatever supernatural power has gotten them this far in 2024.

At 3-10, the Browns are officially and mercifully eliminated from the postseason, and maybe their problems run a little deeper than Deshaun Watson. Jameis Winston is certainly fun to watch, but a 6:6 TD:INT and 60.3 percent completion rate over the last three games would have been a tough sell for an NFL coach a quarter century ago, much less in the more analytically-driven current era. This will also be his first true Lake Erie Weather game, but he may not be able to lean heavily in his backfield the way Cleveland QBs of the past have in similar conditions. Nick Chubb continues to be babied and actually saw fewer touches than Jerome Ford last week in addition to fewer snaps, and if we ever see his pre-injury form again, it probably won't be until next year and in another uniform. (My early guess? The Chargers.) Myles Garrett is tied for second in the league in sacks with 11.0 in 13 games, but Cleveland isn't even in the top 12 as a team, while the secondary is 28th in yards per attempt allowed even with Denzel Ward and Grant Delpit being (mostly) healthy. Moving on from Kevin Stefanski this offseason might be a bit rash, but at the very least OC Ken Dorsey and DC Jim Schwartz should be on the hot seat.

Key Info

KC injuries: WR Hollywood Brown (IR, shoulder), K Harrison Butker (IR, knee)
CLE injuries: WR Cedric Tillman (out, concussion), TE David Njoku (questionable, hamstring), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (IR, neck)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: DeAndre Hopkins
CLE DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 15-20 mph wind, 70-90 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Pacheco slogs for 70 yards and a score. Mahomes throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Hopkins. Chubb leads the CLE backfield with 40 yards. Winston throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off three times, but he does find Jerry Jeudy for a TD. Kansas City 17-10

Miami (+2.5) at Houston, o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

At 6-7, the Dolphins are two games back of the final wild-card spot in the AFC, and they've also lost to the Colts earlier this year, which might come back to bite them in a tiebreaker scenario even if they do close that gap. Miami's won four of its last five though, and their closing schedule certainly gives them a shot at winning out – Houston and San Francisco are reeling, and the Jets and Browns are just bad. Tua Tagovailoa is absolutely locked in right now, topping 300 passing yards in three straight games and completing better than 70 percent of his passes in seven straight, posting a 76.0 percent rate, 15:1 TD:INT and 7.5 YPA over that stretch. The Dolphins don't have much of a running game right now, but De'Von Achane is doing damage as a pass-catcher while Jonnu Smith has already put together career-best numbers, and DC Anthony Weaver's unit has been stingy, if not quite elite. The defense has yet to allow 400 yards of offense in an regulation game this season – the Jets got 402 yards last week against the Dolphins, but the game went to overtime (although technically, New York never got the ball in OT). If there's been a missing ingredient, it's been some truly game-changing performances from Tyreek Hill, but he's gotten into the end zone in four of the last five games with a 31-323-4 line on 41 targets, so it's not like he's been invisisble.

The Texans are still two games up in the AFC South and swept the season series with the Colts, so they remain the prohibitive favorites to claim the division title, but they've squandered chances to really put it away. Houston went just 2-3 over its last five before its Week 14 bye, with losses to the Jets and Titans during that stretch – both of whom are currently set to hold picks in the top seven of the 2025 draft. Calling C.J. Stroud's sophomore season a 'slump' might be too harsh, but his YPA is a full yard lower than it was as a rookie, and his 15:9 TD:INT in 13 games is a big step back from his 23:5 mark in 15 games in 2023. Nico Collins did post a 13-211-1 line on 20 targets over the two contests prior to the week off, but Stroud needs to start connecting with someone else too. At least Joe Mixon's been a beast, topping 100 rushing yards in six of the last eight games and racking up 11 total TDs (10 rushing, one receiving) during that span. The Texans defense keeps finding ways to give up points, sitting tied for 12th in PPG allowed, but no one has yet reached 400 yards against the unit this season and it's in the top three in both takeaways and sacks while sitting fifth in yards per play allowed.

Key Info

MIA injuries: EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee)
HOU injuries: LB Christian Harris (IR, calf), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, suspension), S Jalen Pitre (IR, pectoral)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIA DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: none

MIA DFS fades: Tua Tagovailoa, De'Von Achane, Jonnu Smith
HOU DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Achane leads the MIA backfield with 50 yards. Tagovailoa throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Tyreek (who tops 100 yards) and one to Jaylen Waddle. Mixon gains 80 yards and a score. Stroud throws for 250 yards and a TD to Collins. Dolphins 21-20

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (+3.5), o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Heading into this week, the Jets held the seventh pick in the 2025 draft, and it's iffy whether they'll be able to improve their slot over the next month. They have lost four straight games, so negative momentum (inertia?) is on their side, but they could easily stumble into a win here given the opposition. Their final three opponents are all better teams, but they may not have much to play for by the time they face New York, as Miami might be eliminated from the playoffs by Week 18 and Buffalo's chances of catching Kansas City for the No. 1 seed could be gone by Week 17. Aaron Rodgers threw for 339 yards with an 8.7 YPA last week, both season highs, but with only one TD, which wasn't enough in an OT loss to the Dolphins. The Garrett Wilson-Davante Adams duo finally performed as expected, with each topping 100 yards, but that came with Breece Hall sidelined and the team unable to rely on its backfield. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis did combine for 148 scrimmage yards and a rushing TD, but a 4.0 YPC between them was nothing special. The defense is somehow third in yards per play allowed and top eight in both sacks and pressure rate, but sits 19th in PPG allowed because they're always on the field – the Jets are 26th in time of possession and 27th in total plays run.

Fortunately for them, or unfortunately depending on your priorities, they're facing the team that ranks 32nd in time of possession and total plays run. The Jaguars ground out an ugly win over the Titans last week despite scoring 10 points or less for the third time in their last four contests. Mac Jones is playing like he has PTSD from his New England days, posting a 2:5 TD:INT over the last four games, but the Jags will probably stick with him just to see if he's even worth bringing back as a backup for Trevor Lawrence in 2025. Amazingly, the team's QB issues haven't slowed down rookie wideout Brian Thomas, who's posted a 17-244-1 line on 29 targets over the last three games, but no one else on the offense has done much of late, and now Evan Engram is getting shut down. As for the defense... oof. Dead last in QB rating against and yards per play allowed pretty much sums it up. The unit basically healthy too, so DC Ryan Nielsen doesn't even have that excuse any more.

Key Info

NYJ injuries: RB Breece Hall (questionable, knee), LB C.J. Mosley (IR, neck)
JAC injuries: QB Trevor Lawrence (IR, concussion/shoulder), TE Evan Engram (out, shoulder)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYJ DFS targets: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Tyler Conklin
JAC DFS targets: Devin Duvernay

NYJ DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Allen leads the NYJ backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and two scores, both to Adams. Travis Etienne leads the JAC backfield with 50 yards. Jones throws for under 200 yards, but he finds Thomas for one touchdown and runs in another. Jets 24-14

Washington at New Orleans (+7.5), o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Commanders pulled out of their skid in emphatic fashion prior to their Week 14 bye, stomping the Titans 42-19 to become one of just three teams so far this season to put up 40-plus points at least three times. (The Lions have done it four times, while the Ravens have also done it three times.) While Washington's three-game losing streak before that has all but cost them a shot at the NFC East crown, the team is still holding onto a wild-card spot. Jayden Daniels returned to his hyper-accurate ways against Tennessee and produced four TDs in a game (three passing, one rushing) for the first time in his career, and if there were any lingering concerns about his ribs, he just had a week off to heal them up further. The Commanders' route tree is a little narrow, especially with Austin Ekeler on the shelf – there's Terry McLaurin, and then there's everybody else – but Zach Ertz has at least hit paydirt in three straight games, and maybe waiver claim K.J. Osborn can get up to speed quickly. The defense is still not performing at Dan Quinn's usual hyper-aggressive level, but Marshon Lattimore and his 88 career passes defended in 97 NFL games finally appears ready to make his debut for the team, and a closing schedule that really only features the Philly rematch as a contest in which Washington should be the underdog gives the team a bit of a cushion.

Wait, Lattimore is healthy just in time for a revenge game against the Saints? Sabrina Carpenter might have something to say about that. Sadly, the cornerback won't get a chance to try and pick off a Derek Carr pass, as the QB is out again, this time with a fractured left hand and a concussion. Jake Haener will get the start instead, marshalling an offense that doesn't have much left going for it other than Alvin Kamara and the Marquez Valdes-Scantling renaissance. New Orleans is incredibly still alive in the NFC South after winning three of its last four under interim coach Darren Rizzi, but two of those victories came against the Giants and Browns. The Saints do still get the Raiders in Week 17, but the rest of their schedule features likely playoffs teams. Even without Taysom Hill, there may be enough raw chaos energy left in the Saints for an upset in one of those, but winning all four seems impossible, even if Carr's season isn't done.

Key Info

WAS injuries: RB Austin Ekeler (IR, concussion), WR Noah Brown (out, kidneys), K Austin Seibert (IR, groin), K Zane Gonzalez (questionable, foot)
NO injuries: QB Derek Carr (doubtful, hand/concussion), CB Paulson Adebo (IR, upper leg)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
WAS DFS targets: Brian Robinson
NO DFS targets: none

WAS DFS fades: Terry McLaurin
NO DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Robinson bashes out 120 yards and a score, while Jeremy McNichols also gets into the end zone. Daniels runs in a TD of his own while throwing for 240 yards and a touchdown to Dyami Brown. Kamara will himself to 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Haener throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to MVS, but his first career INT turns into a pick-six by Lattimore. Commanders 38-17

Baltimore at N.Y. Giants (+15.5), o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

I appreciate how the AFC has created a very clean and neat playoff picture for the home stretch. Two divisions are already settled, and the other two are close to it, including the North – with last week's loss to the Eagles, the Ravens have fallen two games behind the Steelers with four to play, and Pittsburgh won the first meeting. On the other hand, the wild-card race features three 8-5 teams, with Baltimore one of them, and two 6-7 teams (Miami and Indy) in a mad dash to try and catch the herd and pick off a straggler. (Yes, I get that using a predator metaphor for teams nicknamed the Colts and Dolphins is inherently silly. Take it up with the Bengals and Jaguars for not playing better this year.) This could well end up being a "what if" kind of season for the Ravens, even if they make the playoffs. All five of their losses have been by a single score, and while they have huge wins over the Bills and Broncos on their resume, they also have losses to the Raiders and Browns. It's a tough call for the selection committee. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level, and while Saquon Barkley has stolen his headlines, Derrick Henry is still on pace to top 1,800 rushing yards and could have one more turbo boost left coming out of a Week 14 bye. I don't think a 2,000-yard campaign is off the table yet – he needs 593 yards across the final four games, and he's hit that over a four-game stretch before multiple times, notably erupting for 710 yards over Weeks 14-17 in 2020, including two 200-yard games. The Ravens' closing schedule isn't ideally set up for it, with next week's game against the Steelers being the biggest obstacle, but the Texans could be locked into the No. 4 seed by Week 17 and the Browns are just playing out the string, even if they always gear up for that rivalry.

Speaking of playing out the string, the Giants have lost eight straight games and would be the proud owners of the second pick in the 2025 draft if the season had ended last weekend. Drew Lock is banged up after getting sacked eight times in the last two games, putting Tommy DeVito back under center, but it hardly matters. This team has averaged 13.1 points and 288.4 yards of offense during the losing streak with a minus-7 turnover differential, completing wasting the efforts of rookies Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy. Not that the defense has really been any better. Last week's loss to the Saints was the first time since Week 4 the Giants had held an opponent below 100 rushing yards, while DC Shane Bowen's unit hasn't generated multiple takeaways since Week 3, and most of that was with Dexter Lawrence still in the lineup. I'm sure Lawrence won't be missed with a human battering ram coming to town.

Key Info

BAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
NYG injuries: QB Drew Lock (doubtful, heel/elbow), LB Bobby Okereke (out, back)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Ravens DST
NYG DFS targets: Malik Nabers

BAL DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: Wan'Dale Robinson

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Henry thunders for 140 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Flowers (who tops 100 yards) and Andrews. Tracy manages 60 yards and a score. DeVito throws for under 200 yards, gets sacked five times and picked off twice. Ravens 34-10

Cincinnati at Tennessee (+5), o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bengals are going down swinging, at least. Last week's win over the Cowboys put them at 5-8, and while they're still alive in the playoff race, they have yet to win a game against a team above .500, going 0-7 against opponents that are currently ticketed for the postseason. That includes an 0-3 record against the Ravens and Chargers, so Cincy's behind the eight ball when it comes to tiebreakers too. If you want a silver lining for 2025, six of those seven losses have been by a single score, so if Joe Burrow had even a mediocre defense at his back instead of a terrible one, they'd probably be in the thick of it. Burrow's chucked at least three TDs in five straight games, posting a 66.1 percent completion rate, 7.5 YPA and 18:3 TD:INT over that stretch, while Ja'Marr Chase has delivered a stunning 38-602-8 line on 57 targets over the last four contests. Again, the Bengals are 1-3 during that span. Chase Brown has also topped 90 scrimmage yards in five straight, racking up 617 yards and four total TDs, but scoring points isn't the issue. Cincy's 29th in PPG allowed, 30th in red-zone defense, tied for 30th in sacks... those are just the lowlights. Basically they're somewhere in the bottom half of the league in every meaningful defensive stat.

The Titans have lost four of their last five, including a putrid 10-6 loss to the Jaguars last week that looked an awful lot like the team has embraced a tank. It wasn't even a classic Will Levis turnover-fest either, as the second-year QB didn't give the ball away once. They just didn't get the ball into the end zone, and barely got it into the red zone. That kind of performance is not why Brian Callahan was brought over from the Bengals, but to be fair, he doesn't have a lot to work with other than Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley. The defense has held up against lesser offenses, but DC Dennard Wilson's unit has coughed up 52 points to the Lions, 42 to the Commanders and 34 to the Bills, so expecting them to shut down Burrow and Chase (which sounds like an Adult Swim riff on '70s cop shows starring two streetwise rabbits) is probably asking too much.

Key Info

CIN injuries: K Evan McPherson (IR, groin), LB Logan Wilson (IR, knee)
TEN injuries: RB Tony Pollard (questionable, ankle), CB L'Jarius Sneed (IR, quadricep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CIN DFS targets: none
TEN DFS targets: Will Levis, Tyler Boyd

CIN DFS fades: Andrei Iosivas
TEN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-15 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Brown hits for 100 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Burrow throws for 350 yards and three more touchdowns, two to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to Mike Gesicki. Pollard collects 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Levis throws for 210 yards and a TD to Ridley. Bengals 35-17 

LATE SUNDAY

New England (+6) at Arizona, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Losers of three straight before their bye, the Patriots currently hold the third overall pick in the 2025 draft, which might be the perfect spot to select the top non-QB on their board, that's Abdul Carter, Travis Hunter or someone else. New England's closing schedule also features four potential playoff teams, including both clashes with the Bills, so if they feel frisky and want to play spoiler for someone's postseason chances/seeding, they can do that too. Really, of all the teams jockeying for draft slotting right now, the Pats are in the most comfortable position. They've already got Drake Maye in place, and need help everywhere on the roster, so they can just do their thing down the stretch and not sweat the consequences. Of course, winding up with a pick someone will want to trade up for would be ideal... Maye is very much a work in progress, tossing an INT in five straight games, but his 69.2 percent completion rate and 231 rushing yards during that time are nice building blocks. He needs more talent around him, though – Hunter Henry has been the Pats' top pass-catcher this season, and Rhamondre Stevenson hasn't been able to overcome the shaky play of the offensive line.

Just when I started to think I was wrong about Jonathan Gannon and the Cardinals, they go and lose three straight (two of them to the Seahawks) to fall two games off the pace in the NFC West. The lesson here is clearly to never ever doubt myself or change my mid about anything. They still have a solid shot at the postseason, both because they have two very winnable games coming up (they're in Carolina next week) before finishing out their schedule against the Rams and 49ers, but also because a 9-8 record might just end up being good enough to take the division. Kyler Murray is pressing, throwing multiple picks in back-to-back contests, and he also isn't doing a lot of running lately. I'm not sure if that's a coaching thing or a nursing an injury thing, but I suspect the former just because I still don't think this is a very good coaching staff. James Conner topped 100 scrimmage yards with a TD last week, the first time he'd done that since Arizona's Week 11 bye, while Trey McBride has been a target monster of late, posting a 31-299-0 line on 41 targets during the three-game losing streak. Marvin Harrison has done enough to avoid being considered a bust, but he's on pace for 59 catches and 857 yards, which at least qualifies as a mild disappointment. I know OC Drew Petzing gets talked up in some circles, but he's running a unit that sits 18th in PPG and 24th in red-zone efficiency despite having one of the league's more mobile QBs under center. I have to think they could be doing better.

Key Info

NE injuries: LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle), CB Christian Gonzalez (questionable, shoulder)
ARI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NE DFS targets: none
ARI DFS targets: Kyler Murray, Cardinals DST

NE DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Stevenson churns out 90 yards and a score. Maye throws for under 200 yards and gets sacked five times, but he does hit Kayshon Boutte for a touchdown. Conner picks up 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Murray throws for 250 yards and two scores, one each to Harrison and Michael Wilson, while also running in a touchdown of his own. Cardinals 28-20

Indianapolis (+3.5) at Denver, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

This year's Horse Bowl (formerly known as the Nationwide Peyton Manning Bowl) sees the Colts in a bit of a precarious position. They have maybe the best closing schedule of any team in the league, finishing off their slate with games against the Titans, Giants and Jaguars – three of the bottom six teams in the league. However, Indy's two games back of Houston in the AFC South and two games back of the clump of teams holding wild-card spots in the conference, one of which is Denver. A loss here, and winning their last three may not matter for the Colts. Anthony Richardson is coming off maybe the most Anthony Richardson game of his career prior to a Week 14 bye, as he produced three totals TDs and ran in the winning two-point conversion but got picked off twice, completed just 50 percent of his passes and threw for only 109 yards. In the three games, Jonathan Taylor has only averaged 3.1 yards a carry, but he remains the offense's top asset, while the wideouts simply have to hope Richardson gets the ball close enough to them that they can try to make a play. Much as it would be hilarious to see this team make the playoffs and then put a scare into the Bills or whoever when Richardson has his one good quarter, I'm not getting my hopes up.

The Broncos are also coming off their bye, but they rolled into it having won three straight games by an average score of 36-19. Sure, those victories came against the Raiders, Browns and Falcons, and Denver is 1-5 this season against teams currently in line for a playoff spot (the win? Week 3 against the Bucs), but being a gatekeeper might be good enough for a wild-card spot this season. Bo Nix may have needed the break – the rookie QB failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in either of the last two wins and tossed two INTs in his last contest for the first time since Week 2. While the point totals look nice, it was really the defense carrying the load during that win streak. The Broncos racked up six takeaways and 12 sacks, and they needed two pick-sixes to beat the Browns. Courtland Sutton remains the only dependable asset on the offense around Nix, and the wideout's either reached 100 yards or gotten into the end zone in five of the last six games, amassing a 42-569-3 line on 57 targets over that stretch.

Key Info

IND injuries: WR Josh Downs (questionable, shoulder)
DEN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
IND DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: Devaughn Vele, Broncos DST

IND DFS fades: Mo Alie-Cox/Kylen Granson
DEN DFS fades: Marvin Mims

Weather notes: 10-20 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Taylor picks up 80 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. Richardson throws for under 200 yards and runs in a score of his own, but he gets sacked four times, one of which Cody Barton returns to the house. Jaleel McLaughlin leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Nix throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Sutton and Vele. Broncos 31-17 

Buffalo (+2.5) at Detroit, o/u 54.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Last week Josh Allen produced six touchdowns, three through the air and three on the ground – the first quarterback ever to do that in a single game – and the Bills generated 445 yards of offense without a single turnover... and they still lost. Ouch. Buffalo's two games back of Kansas City for the top seed in the AFC, but with a win over their AFC West rivals in hand, they could still pull it off if K.C.'s luck ever goes bad. Even a loss here doesn't doom them to the No. 2 seed – the Bills close with Pats/Jets/Pats, while the defending champs get Texans/Steelers/Broncos. The question is whether that performance by the defense last week was a fluke or an ominous sign. Allen's led the Bills to 30-plus points in seven straight games – the modern record is eight, set by the 49ers from the end of the 2022 season through the first five weeks of 2023 – so there may not be many holes he can't climb out of, but it was still a big step back for a unit that had secured eight sacks and nine takeaways over its prior three games.

The Lions' winning streak stands at 11 games after they took care of the Packers last week, but they can't seem to shake the Vikings in the NFC North, sitting just one game up despite a 12-1 record. Home Jared Goff was in full effect last week, as the he threw multiple TDs at Ford Field for the fifth straight game. He's got a 15:4 TD:INT in seven home contests with a 111.9 QB rating, against a 10:6 TD:INT and 105.3 QB rating in six road games, but to be fair to Road Goff, five of those interceptions came in one afternoon in Houston. Detroit may also be finding themselves in the same situation as Buffalo, where their defense is fo0rcing the offense to operate at peak efficiency most of the time. DC Aaron Glenn's unit has only seven sacks and two takeaways over the last four games, and while it had no trouble stifling the likes of the Jags and Colts, that will very much not be the case in this one.

Key Info

BUF injuries: TE Dalton Kincaid (questionable, knee), S Damar Hamlin (back), S Taylor Rapp (questionable, neck)
DET injuries: LB Alex Anzalone (IR, forearm)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BUF DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid
DET DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

James Cook jets for 110 combined yards and a TD. Allen throws for 270 yards and two scores, both to Amari Cooper, while also running in a touchdown of his own. Jahmyr Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 120 scrimmage yards and a TD, while David Montgomery adds 50 yards and a score. Goff throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Amon-Ra St. Brown and one to Jameson Williams (who tops 100 yards). Lions 35-34

Tampa Bay (+3) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

To the surprise of few, the Buccanneers took advantage of a soft schedule to move into the top spot in the NFC South, winning three straight games over the Giants, Panthers and Raiders by an average score of about 28-14. They close with Dallas, New Orleans and Carolina again too, with this game being their one tough test after a Week 11 bye. Surprisingly, it hasn't been Baker Mayfield lighting it up of late, as he has a 4:4 TD:INT during the win streak. Instead, the backfield has suddenly emerged as a force, with Bucky Irving erupting for 355 scrimmage yards and two rushing TDs while Rachaad White has racked up 234 combined yards and three total TDs. Even Sean Tucker's made an impact when given the chance, getting only seven carries in the three games but turning them into 50 yards and a touchdown. The quality of the opposition needs to be factored in of course, but if the Tampa Bay offensive line has turned a corner, the team's rushing attack might just carry it right into the postseason.

Justin Herbert is banged up again, and the Chargers' momentum went right out the door along with his health. To be fair, his supporting cast has been gutted too – J.K. Dobbins and Will Dissly are on the shelf, and Ladd McConkey could miss a second straight game this week. Whatever you want to point to as the culprit, the Bolts have failed to reach 300 yards of offense in three straight games, and while they nearly stole a win against Kansas City last week, the fact that the game was even close had at least as much to do with their opponents. Their wild-card spot seems relatively secure though, as Jim Harbaugh's crew closes out its regular season against the Patriots and Raiders, so the Chargers are a good bet for at least 10 wins. It would be nice if the pass rush could ramp it up, though – between them, Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack have only 4.5 sacks over the last seven games while dealing with various nagging injuries.

Key Info

TB injuries: RB Bucky Irving (questionable, back), WR Sterling Shepard (questionable, foot), S Antoine Winfield (out, knee)
LAC injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, knee), WR Ladd McConkey (questionable, knee/shoulder), TE Will Dissly (out, shoulder)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TB DFS targets: Jalen McMillan
LAC DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: Mike Evans
LAC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

White leads the TB backfield with 90 yards and a score, while Tucker adds 50 yards and a TD. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to McMillan. Kimani Vidal leads the LAC backfield with 70 yards and a receiving score, while Gus Edwards punches in a TD. Herbert throws for 260 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Stone Smartt and McConkey. Chargers 28-27

Pittsburgh (+5) at Philadelphia, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

With a two-game lead on the Ravens and a win in the first meeting between them (hmm, there's got to be some sort of "a win in the hand is worth two Ravens in the bush" joke or something in there, but I'll let someone else tease it out), the Steelers are looking good for their first AFC North title since 2020. Heck, if it weren't for a snow game in Cleveland a couple weeks ago, they'd pretty much have a playoff spot locked up. Russell Wilson snapped a streak of five straight games with at least one turnover last week in the return match against the Browns, but driving the bus was all he really needed to do in a 27-14 win, especially with George Pickens sidelined. Since the Steelers' Week 9 bye, the veteran QB has posted a 65.4 percent completion rate, 8.0 YPA and 9:3 TD:INT, which has been more than enough offense to support DC Teryl Austin's defense. Four straight games with exactly three takeaways, plus 10 sacks over that stretch, have created more than enough havoc, and on the season Pittsburgh is second in third-down defense and first in QB knockdowns – even if T.J. Watt and company don't always get there on time, the other team's quarterback is very aware of their presence. The Steelers don't exactly feel like a real Super Bowl challenger, but they also aren't going to be an opponent anyone wants to face in the playoffs.

Good as the Steelers have been coming into the latest Battle of Pennsylvania, the Eagles have been a little bit better. Winners of nine straight – second-longest active streak in the league behind Detroit – Philly has locked up a postseason berth already and are on the verge of winning the NFC East title, their fourth in the last eight years. The Eagles got a bit lucky last week against the feisty Panthers, but for the most part they've been able to simply ride Saquon Barkley to glory. No other team in the league has gotten more than 50 percent of its yards on the ground this season, but with Barkley having a legitimate shot at Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing record and OC Kellen Moore having a reputation for doing the same thing over and over and over, even after other teams have started to figure it out, I doubt Saquon's role is going to shrink any time soon. That said, the passing side of the offense is getting restless – Jalen Hurts has gone three straight games without throwing for 200 yards, and he hasn't reached 250 since Week 6 – so Moore may have to start throwing A.J. Brown a bone or 10 to make sure everybody's on the same page before the playoffs.

Key Info

PIT injuries: WR George Pickens (out, hamstring), WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee), S DeShon Elliott (out, hamstring)
PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (IR, knee), EDGE Bryce Huff (IR, wrist)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PIT DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: Mike Williams
PHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 5-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Najee Harris picks up 70 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 210 yards and a TD to Van Jefferson. Barkley gallops for 150 scrimmage yards and two scores. Hurts throws for under 200 yards again but finds Brown for a touchdown. Eagles 24-17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Green Bay at Seattle (+2.5), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Packers have four losses this season, and all of them are to teams that already have double-digit wins, which is about as good as four losses can get. Since Green Bay's Week 10 bye, Jordan Love has a 67.0 percent completion rate, 6:1 TD:INT and massive 10.3 YPA, while Josh Jacobs topped 1,000 rushing yards last week and has already tied his career high in TDs with 12. The Packers' offense hasn't flashed the ceiling of some other teams, but it's scored at least 30 in three straight and six times in total this season. The defense has been similarly tidy, with last week's 34 points by the Lions being the first time someone's hit for at least 30 against Green Bay since Week 4, while no one's put up 400 yards of offense against them since Week 1. The secondary is banged up however, and how healthy Matt LaFleur's roster is in January will probably be the difference between putting up a good fight and actually making a run.

With four straight wins, the Seahawks have climbed up to the top of the NFC, but they're not out of the woods yet. The Rams remain one game behind them, and a closing schedule that includes three NFC North teams (leaving out only the Lions, who they lost to back in Week 4) plus their final clash with the Rams will be tough to navigate. Geno Smith has been in a bit of a lull, managing just a 3:2 TD:INT over the last four games with a 7.4 YPA despite his still-sharp 73.4 percent completion rate, but the running game has picked up some of the slack. Even with Kenneth Walker sidelined last week, Zach Charbonnet ran wild on the Cards, and Charbonnet figures to start again here. DK Metcalf is also playing through a shoulder issue, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba might be Seattle's new top wideout anyway. During the win streak, the defense has collected six takeaways and 11 sacks, and no team has yet thrown for 300 yards against Mike Macdonald's unit. This basically amounts to a battle to determine who the best non-elite team is in the NFC.

Key Info

GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (NFI, appendix), CB Jaire Alexander (out, knee)
SEA injuries: RB Kenneth Walker (doubtful, calf)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
GB DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: Noah Fant

GB DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 20-70 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Jacobs rumbles for 100 yards and a TD. Love throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed. Charbonnet gains 80 yards and a score. Smith throws for 210 yards and a TD to JSN. Packers 24-20 

MONDAY NIGHT 

Chicago (+6.5) at Minnesota, o/u 43.5 – Monday, 8:00 p.m. EST

So much for a new coach bounce. The Bears keep losing no matter who's on the sideline, dropping their seventh straight game last week and not even keeping it close against a 49ers team wracked by injuries. Caleb Williams does have a 7:0 TD:INT over the last three games, and Chicago will need to keep leaning heavily on the rookie given the state of their own backfield. Williams has spread the ball around pretty well among his top three wideouts, with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze each getting a moment or two in the spotlight, but the defense seems to have packed it in for 2024. Three straight opponents have topped 400 yards against Chicago, and the only team since a Week 7 bye that hasn't managed at least 350 is the Patriots. A closing schedule that features nothing but likely playoff teams probably spells bad news for interim coach Thomas Brown's chances of keeping the job in the offseason.

The Vikings have won six straight to stay one game behind the Lions in the NFC North, and they're on the verge of locking up a playoff spot. Remember when everyone had them finishing fourth in the division back in August? Good times. Kevin O'Connell might get overlooked again for Coach of the Year, but he's really done an incredible job this season. Kirk Cousins was supposed to be the one angling for a revenge game last week, but it really seemed like the Vikes put together one for O'Connell instead, as Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison all put up ridiculous numbers. That helped cover for a defense that's beginning to slip due to injuries, as the 496 yards Atlanta put up were a season high allowed by Minnesota. The Vikes have dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning six of the last seven meetings by an average score of about 24-16, but the one Bears win did come in Minnesota last season – an ugly 12-10 contest that saw Joshua Dobbs throw four picks.

Key Info

CHI injuries: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, groin), RB Roschon Johnson (out, concussion), S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)
MIN injuries: LB Ivan Pace (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CHI DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison

CHI DFS fades: Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift
MIN DFS fades: Jalen Nailor

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Travis Homer leads the CHI backfield with 50 yards. Williams throws for under 200 yards but does hit Moore for a score. Jones collects 80 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Darnold throws for 290 yards and two more TDs, finding Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Vikings 31-14

Atlanta at Las Vegas (+4), o/u 44.5 – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

While I think the calls for Michael Penix to take over at QB for the Falcons are a bit premature, I do get it. Kirk Cousins has looked washed of late, going four straight games – all Atlanta losses – without a TD pass while posting a 62.4 percent completion rate, a 7.6 YPA and getting intercepted eight times. The team is still 6-7 though, and the NFC South is still winnable if they get their act together. The thing is, the swoon isn't all on Cousins. The defense has just one takeaway during the losing streak, although the pass rush has sprung to life with nine sacks in the last two contests. Drake London's not 100 percent, and Kyle Pitts has disappeared again (2-23-0 on 11 targets over the last three games.) Bijan Robinson at least has kept chugging, and during those four losses he's amassed 443 scrimmage yards and four rushing TDs. Three of the Falcons' last four games are against teams playing for draft position though (the Raiders, Giants and Panthers), so they'd really have to screw up to finish below .500. Nine wins, with two of them coming against the Bucs earlier in the year, might just do it.

The Raiders are likely going to be down to their third-string QB for this one, as Aidan O'Connell suffered a bone bruise in his knee last week. The injury looked a lot worse on the field, but he escaped something season-ending, and it might just be a matter of pain tolerance whether he can hobble around in the pocket or not. (I did mention that the Atlanta pass rush is suddenly dangerous, right... ?) If he can't go though, it sets the stage for what would be one of the most improbable revenge games of the year as Desmond Ridder, taken by the Falcons in the third round of the 2022 draft before being chased away as part of the post-Arthur Smith housecleaning, would get the nod. Ridder actually wound up on Arizona's practice squad before being scooped up by Las Vegas in October, and he looked at least decent in relief of O'Connell last week against Tampa Bay, even if he did throw to the wrong tight end – Michael Mayer wound up with a 7-68-0 line on nine targets, while Brock Bowers went for 3-49-0 on five targets. With a week of first-team reps, I'm sure Ridder will sort that out. The defense has been bad even when Maxx Crosby's been healthy, the backfield is now headed by an undrafted guy named Sincere McCormick, and this team have definitely earned their current spot at the top of the 2025 draft, but Ridder messing that up with a good performance would somehow seem perfectly in keeping with the Raider Way. Then again, so would getting routed in their own building by a QB who seemed to be about to lose his job the week before.

Key Info

ATL injuries: LB Troy Andersen (out, knee)
LV injuries: QB Aidan O'Connell (questionable, knee), RB Zamir White (IR, quadricep), EDGE Maxx Crosby (out, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ATL DFS targets: none
LV DFS targets: Jakobi Meyers

ATL DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Robinson churns out 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 240 yards and a score to London. McCormick leads the LV backfield with 40 yards. Ridder starts and throws for 230 yards with two TDs, hitting Meyers and Bowers, but he also throws a late INT to seal the loss. Falcons 23-21

THURSDAY NIGHT

L.A. Rams (+2.5) at San Francisco, o/u 48.5
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The NFC West got a little bit of clarity last week, but it's still mostly a mess. The Rams are one game back of the Seahawks for the lead, and the Niners and Cards are one game back of them, so it's really anyone's division to win. Sean McVay's squad is coming off a ridiculous 44-42 win over the Bills in which defense was incredibly optional — the teams combined for 902 yards and zero turnovers or sacks. Kyren Williams is back to his TD-hogging ways after a midseason lull, getting into the end zone four times in the last three games, while Matthew Stafford continued a hot streak that has seen him post a 67.5 percent completion rate, 10:0 TD:INT and 8.9 YPA over the last four games. A team that has won double-digit games and made the playoffs in three of the last four seasons, with one Super Bowl victory in the mix, seems to have geared up for another strong kick to the finish line. The young defense will need to get it together the same way the offense has if the Rams are going to be any kind of serious threat, though. During that four-game stretch, DC Chris Shula's unit has given up an average of 28.8 points and 408.8 yards, and over the last three it's generated zero takeaways and just one sack.

That the 49ers are even still in playoff contention at this point is a minor miracle that Kyle Shanahan probably isn't getting enough credit for. San Francisco only got about three and a half games out of Christian McCaffrey, and just two in which he topped 100 scrimmage yards. Brandon Aiyuk was done after Week 7. Talanoa Hufanga has yet to play two games in a row in 2024, and Dre Greenlaw and Jon Feliciano have yet to play a snap at all. Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, kicker Jake Moody and punter Mitch Wishnowsky have all missed significant time, while George Kittle needed his usual maintenance. Heck, even Brock Purdy had to sit out one game, with disastrous results. And yet the Niners are still 6-7, and there's still enough healthy talent on the field that winning out and/or winning the division isn't off the table. Their dominance of this rivalry had faded, though, and they've lost consecutive games to the Rams after reeling off nine straight regular-season victories. The most recent clash was a 27-24 loss in Week 3 — the Jauan Jennings Game in which he erupted for an 11-75-3 line on 12 targets to give the 49ers a 21-7 lead midway through the third quarter, only for the home side to come storming back.

Key Info

LAR injuries: WR Demarcus Robinson (questionable, shoulder), TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee)
SF injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (IR, knee), RB Jordan Mason (IR, ankle), RB Isaac Guerendo (questionable, foot), EDGE Nick Bosa (questionable, oblique), LB Dre Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAR DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: Jauan Jennings

LAR DFS fades: none
SF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Williams racks up 90 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Stafford throws for 270 yards and two more TDs, one each to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp (who tops 100 yards). Guerendo plays, but it's Israel Abanikanda who leads the SF backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a score. Purdy throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Jennings and Deebo Samuel. Rams 28-27

Last week's record: 10-3, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 o/u
2024 record: 136-70, 106-100-2 ATS, 108-99-1 o/u