NFL Game Previews: Divisional Playoff Matchups

SATURDAY

Houston (+8.5) at Kansas City, o/u 41.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Last week I said the Texans' best chance of winning would come if C.J. Stroud turned back the clock to 2023. It didn't actually require that much time travel; instead, the defense just turned back the clock to November, racking up four sacks and four takeaways to put down Justin Herbert and the Chargers. DeMeco Ryans' unit has been elite at times the last couple years, but it didn't look it in December when Houston lost to Kansas City 27-19 in Week 16. The offense also showed a bit more life against the Bolts — Stroud's 282 passing yards were his most since Week 8, while Joe Mixon topped 100 rushing yards and got into the end zone for the first time since the Texans' Week 14 bye. The earlier result seems to be informing the spread, as well as the feeling of inevitably around the Red and Gold Empire as it seeks the threepeat, but if Houston is firing on all cylinders, they won't go down easy.

The last time we saw ole Patrick Mahomes, he was throwing for three TDs in Pittsburgh while supposedly playing through an ankle injury. That was three weeks ago, though; Kansas City rested its starters in Week 18 even with a first-round playoff bye in hand, so the roster is nice and healthy as the team starts its postseason run. Andy Reid's done this before — Mahomes and the starters rested in the final week of the regular season in 2020 and then got a bye the next week as well, and they came back to down the Browns in the divisional round, with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce each topping 100 yards while Mahomes threw one TD and ran for another. (That was, incidentally, Baker Mayfield's last playoff game for Cleveland.) The 2024 version of Kansas City lacks that group's upside, but it seems intent on getting the job done through sheer competence. The offense hasn't topped 30 points all season and hasn't produced 400-plus yards of offense since Week 5, but it's also gone seven consecutive games without committing a turnover, and that includes Week 18 when Carson Wentz was in charge. The defense has similarly been more floor than ceiling, but three of the four games this year in which the first-stringers generated multiple takeaways came in Weeks 15-17, including that win over the Texans.

Key Info

HOU injuries: RB Joe Mixon (questionable, ankle), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (questionable, knee)
KC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: Texans DST
KC DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco/Kareem Hunt

Weather notes: temperature in the low 20s, 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop

Mixon gets held to 60 yards. Stroud throws for less than 200 yards but does find Nico Collins for a touchdown. Isiah Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 220 yards and a score to Hollywood Brown. A Kareem Hunt fumble leads to a Henry To'oTo'o touchdown that keeps things close. Kansas City 20-14

Washington (+9.5) at Detroit, o/u 55.5 – Saturday, 8 p.m. EST

Are we absolutely sure Jayden Daniels is a rookie? I mean sure, he'd have fewer records if he wasn't, and he wouldn't have become the fourth rookie QB in the Super Bowl era to win a road playoff game last week (the rest of the list: Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez), but Daniels stands out even in that fairly exclusive club — none of the other three threw more than one TD in their first postseason victory or even reached 200 passing yards, mostly just relying on their defenses, and none led his teams in rushing. Daniels, on the other hand, went toe to toe and throw for throw with Baker Mayfield, and came out on top after yet another game-winning fourth-quarter drive. If the Commanders' impressive season ends here, it takes nothing away from Daniels' incredible campaign, or the job Dan Quinn has done turning around a franchise that hadn't won double-digit games since 2012, and hadn't won a playoff game since 2005. Washington does have Terry McLaurin and a defense that has gotten better and begun to display Quinn's trademark aggressiveness as the season has worn on, but Daniels might have to perform multiple miracles to pull this one off.

The Lions wound up tied with Kansas City for the best record in the NFL at 15-2, but for most of the season Detroit looked very emphatically like the best team in the league. The offense reached 40 points six times, and topped 30 in five consecutive games to close out the regular-season slate — including a 31-9 thumping of the Vikings with the NFC North title on the line. Like Quinn in Washington, Dan Campbell has turned the culture of his team around, but he's been at it for a few more years and his roster is much further along. It's not just the stars like Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, though they're pretty great. It's depth that made the Lions so dangerous in 2024. This team had seven defensive linemen on IR heading into Week 17, and still held a Kyle Shanahan offense to 75 rushing yards. Detroit led the league in third-down defense, and finished top 7 in red-zone defense, third-down offense and red-zone offense, the only team to rank near the top in all four areas. That's not a guarantee of a Super Bowl — the Bills in 2021 were the last team to do it — but it's still impressive. The Lions' injury luck also seems to be turning. David Montgomery will rejoin the backfield this week, and Terrion Arnold seemingly avoided anything too worrisome when he hurt his foot in Week 18. Getting Aidan Hutchinson back as anything more than moral support remains a pipe dream, but they went 11-1 without him. I think they'll be OK.

Key Info

WAS injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
WAS DFS targets: Austin Ekeler
DET DFS targets: none

WAS DFS fades: Zach Ertz
DET DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Ekeler leads the WAS backfield with 70 scrimmage yards, and Brian Robinson punches in a TD. Daniels throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting McLaurin and Olamide Zaccheaus. Gibbs zips for 100 combined yards and a score, while Montgomery also gets into the end zone. Goff throws for 350 yards and three TDs, one each to St. Brown (who tops 100 yards), Jameson Williams (who also tops 100 yards) and Sam LaPorta. Lions 35-21

SUNDAY

L.A. Rams (+5.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 3 p.m. EST

The Rams held serve at home against a Vikings team that had apparently turned back into a pumpkin in the second half of Week 17, only no one really noticed until the playoffs. DC Chris Shula's defense, not Matthew Stafford and the offense, was the star of that wild-card win, as Sam Darnold got sacked nine times and saw one result in a fumble that Jared Verse returned to the house. Stafford's thrown only one pick in his last eight starts, posting a 13:1 TD:INT, but he's also thrown for less than 200 yards in four of his last six and barely got over that mark against Minnesota. Kyren Williams got into the end zone again last week, though, something he's done in 13 of his 17 appearances this season, and he remains the most reliable source of offense for Sean McVay's squad. Stafford and the passing game are still capable of going off — just ask the Bills — but those ceiling games are getting fewer and farther between for the 36-year-old QB.

The NFC East champs had little trouble dispatching a wounded Packers team in the wild-card round, but it's hard to blow a plus-4 turnover advantage. It still wasn't a dominant performance from the Eagles, who actually got out-gained (302 yards to 290) and had so little going through the air that A.J. Brown curled up with a good book. Mind you, it's a formula that seems to work for Philly. Jalen Hurts has played in six postseason games, and gone 3-0 when he's thrown for less than 200 yards ... and 0-3 when he's thrown for 250 or more. The correlation might be flipped around there, but it's still a very odd stat for a QB with four years left on his $255 million extension. Saquon Barkley ran for 119 yards and left about 60 more on the table, continuing his incredible campaign, and the defense has let only one team top 20 points against it (the Commanders in Week 16) in its last 10 games, so they haven't really needed Hurts and Brown (and DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert) to carry the load. We'll see if they can flip the switch when the time comes.

Key Info

LAR injuries: LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring)
PHI injuries: LB Nakobe Dean (IR, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAR DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee
PHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 25-40 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Williams piles up 80 yards and a score. Stafford throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Puka Nacua. Barkley glides for 150 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Hurts throws for under 200 yards and adds a rushing score of his own. Eagles 27-14

Baltimore at Buffalo (+1), o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST

The weekend's marquee matchup has all the makings of a classic smashmouth contest that'll end up with a nickname like the Blizzard Bowl or something. The Ravens won the regular-season meeting 35-10 in Week 4, the first of seven games this year in which Baltimore reached 35 points as the combo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry has simply overwhelmed most opponents. Jackson's tossed multiple TDs in seven consecutive games, posting a jaw-dropping 18:1 TD:INT over that stretch, and statistically he's earned a second straight MVP Award, even if he doesn't end up winning it. For his part, Henry has done his usual late-season steamroller thing against defenders ground down by the NFL schedule, topping 130 rushing yards in four consecutive games with five touchdowns and a 6.5 YPC, including a massive performance against the Steelers in the wild-card round. Zay Flowers probably won't be available, but it almost doesn't matter who Jackson has to throw to, as someone will be open while defenses scramble to try and stop the Ravens' ground game. It's the defensive turnaround that's made the team a genuine Super Bowl contender, though. After the secondary struggled badly in the first half, DC Zach Orr adjusted his personnel and saw his unit take off — over their last eight games, the Ravens have allowed just 15.3 points per game and hasn't let an opponent top 315 yards of offense.

The Bills also had a fairly easy time in their wild-card game, giving up a quick TD to the Broncos and then scoring the next 31 points. Offensively, Buffalo and Baltimore are built on similar philosophies. Josh Allen, the likely MVP, also has a stellar 12:1 TD:INT in his last six full games while adding in seven rushing scores, while James Cook has a five-game TD streak, including a cameo in Week 18. The main difference has been on the other side of the ball, as the Bills had back-to-back games in Weeks 14 and 15 in which they coughed up more than 40 points. Granted, it was to the Lions and Rams, but the Ravens absolutely have that kind of ceiling too. Buffalo finished third in takeaways, one back of co-leaders Minnesota and Pittsburgh, but only tied for 18th in sacks, while Baltimore's rankings were effectively reversed — second in sacks, but tied for 20th in takeaways. Whichever defense is better able to play to its strengths might end up determining the winner here.

Key Info

BAL injuries: WR Zay Flowers (doubtful, knee)
BUF injuries: RB Ray Davis (questionable, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Khalil Shakir

BAL DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: Keon Coleman

Weather notes: temperature in the low 10s, 50-60 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Henry gains 90 yards and a touchdown. Jackson throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Tylan Wallace. Cook picks up 70 yards and a TD. Allen throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Dalton Kincaid while also running one in himself. Bills 24-20
 

Last week's record: 3-3, 2-4 ATS, 2-4 o/u
2024 playoff record: 3-3, 2-4 ATS, 2-4 o/u
2024 regular-season record: 183-89, 141-28-3 ATS, 144-126-2 o/u