NFL Game Previews: Bengals-Cowboys Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Cincinnati at Dallas (+5.5), o/u 49.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

There was a big kerfuffle a few weeks ago about the NFL not being able to flex this game out of prime time because they're doing some Simpsons tie-in, and the team-specific animation was already in the can. I think the lesson is that it's time to let the Simpsons die. The Bengals have lost three straight, and even winning out at this point probably isn't going to get them a playoff spot. Joe Burrow's been doing everything he can, posting a 15:2 TD:INT over the last four games but with a 63.9 percent completion rate and 7.3 YPA, but the defense has simply been toxic. Burrow led Cincy to 38 points against the Steelers and it still lost because Russell Wilson led Pittsburgh to 44. The Steelers piled up 520 yards of offense, the second time this season a team's topped 500 against the Bengals — and to add insult to injury, the other one was the Ravens. Cincy's closing schedule isn't a difficult one on paper, but every win just delays the inevitable.

Speaking of delaying the inevitable, the Cowboys have won consecutive games with Cooper Rush under center as the offense and defense both begin to figure things out. Dallas is still 5-7, though, three wins back of the final wild-card spot in the NFC and with four other teams between the Cowboys and the Commanders. Rush is focused more on not making mistakes, posting a 62.6 percent completion rate, 4:1 TD:INT and 6.5 YPA over the last three games, and that's fine as long as Rico Dowdle keeps averaging more than 100 scrimmage yards a game as he's done in those two wins, or the defense keeps making splash plays (five takeaways and 10 sacks in the last two weeks). Neither of those things has been consistently true this season, though — if they were, Dallas wouldn't have just five wins. Other vets are joining Dak Prescott on the sidelines, with Zack Martin being the latest, and CeeDee Lamb might have to join them soon. He's also gone five games with a touchdown or a 100-yard game, and given the shape his shoulder is in, he might not break those droughts even in an exploitable matchup.

Key Info

CIN injuries: K Evan McPherson (IR, groin), LB Logan Wilson (IR, knee)
DAL injuries: EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CIN DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: Cooper Rush, KaVontae Turpin

CIN DFS fades: none
DAL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Chase Brown jets for 120 yards and a touchdown. Burrow throws for 330 yards and three TDs, two to Ja'Marr Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to Tee Higgins. Dowdle scoops up 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Rush throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Jake Frguson and Turpin. Bengals 34-27

EARLY SUNDAY

New York Jets (+5.5) at Miami, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Losers of three straight, the 3-9 Jets are on the brink of being eliminated from the playoffs, and deservedly so. I personally find all the leaks coming out of the front office hilarious — owner Woody Johnson wants Aaron Rodgers benched, but brave interim coach Jeff Ulbrich says no! Gotta keep those back pages focused on Gang Green before the Yankees and Mets start throwing around free-agent dollars. The rumors would carry more weight if the team actually had a young QB to audition, but 35-year-old backup Tyrod Taylor is no more a part of the team's future than is Rodgers. Quarterback isn't really the problem, either. Rodgers has a 9:1 TD:INT over the last five games, even if it comes with a 63.8 percent completion rate and weak 5.9 YPA, and both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams have had productive performances during that stretch. Instead, it's the defense that has mostly collapsed. The Jets did manage to shut down the Texans when C.J. Stroud was looking his most lost without Nico Collins, but everyone else they have faced lately has hung at least 25 points on them. They aren't generating takeaways — just four in the last seven games — and the pass rush has slowed too, though an eight-sack effort against Stroud has kept their season-long numbers afloat. This isn't the best opponent to try to turn things around against, either, as the Jets have dropped seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry and haven't won a game in Miami since 2015, when Ryan Fitzpatrick drove the bus to a Week 4 victory over Ryan Tannehill on the strength of a career-high 166-yard performance from Chris Ivory.

The Dolphins aren't out of the wild-card picture yet, but they're already in the "win out and get some help" zone, which isn't a great place to be in Week 14. They really couldn't afford last week's loss to the Packers, but they were simply out-classed at Lambeau and were staring at a 24-3 deficit heading into the half before making the final score vaguely respectable in garbage time. Tua Tagovailoa's on a tear, posting a 77.0 percent completion rate, 9:0 TD:INT and 8.0 YPA in the last three games, but his most reliable targets during that stretch have been Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane, who were on the other end of six of those scores between them. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have shown flashes, but the passing attack's big-play ability just hasn't been there. Tua's had double-digit completions of 40-plus yards in each of the prior two seasons, and that includes 2022 when he only played 13 games. Through eight contests in 2024, he's managed only three. The Miami defense has mostly held up and hasn't let a team reach 400 yards against it all year, but the offense hasn't gotten there either since Week 1.

Key Info

NYJ injuries: RB Breece Hall (doubtful, knee), WR Allen Lazard (IR, chest), K Greg Zuerlein (IR, knee), CB Sauce Gardner (doubtful, hamstring)
MIA injuries: RB Raheem Mostert (questionable, hip), EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee), LB Anthony Walker (questionable, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYJ DFS targets: none
MIA DFS targets: De'Von Achane

NYJ DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop

Braelon Allen leads the NYJ backfield with 50 yards. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and a TD to Wilson. Achane collects 80 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Tagovailoa throws for 260 yards and two more scores, one each to Tyreek and Malik Washington. Dolphins 28-16 

Atlanta (+5.5) at Minnesota, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

There have been a lot of high-profile revenge games this season, with Jerry Jeudy and Saquon Barkley leading the pack, but Kirk Cousins gets his shot to join them. (If he blows this one, he gets another chance in Week 17 against Washington.) The Falcons are still clinging to the lead in the NFC South by their fingernails at 6-6 despite losing their last three games, including last week's ugly performance against the Chargers. Cousins' four interceptions in that game wasted the best performance of the year by the Atlanta defense, and the veteran QB has somehow failed to throw a TD at all during the losing streak, posting an 0:6 TD:INT with a 62.5 percent completion rate and 7.0 YPA. That slump has coincided with Drake London playing through a minor hip injury he picked up against Dallas in Week 9, but the wideout appears to be past it now. The offense has instead been leaning on Bijan Robinson — 342 scrimmage yards and three rushing TDs in the last three games — but you know Cousins will want to take matters into his own hands in this one. Whether that's a good idea is a completely different question, of course.

The Vikings roll into this one having won five straight to stay hot on the heels of the Lions in the NFC North, but they haven't exactly been convincing victories. Four have been by a single score, including an OT win over the Bears a couple weeks ago, and the average score across in the winning streak has only been about 22-16. DC Brian Flores' unit allowed a season-high 154 rushing yards against the Cards last week, but Kyler Murray had about a third of them, and containing Cousins in the pocket won't present the same issues. Sam Darnold has tossed multiple TDs in three consecutive games and five of the last six, posting a 6:0 TD:INT in those last three that's very neatly the inverse of Cousins' performance. Is that incredibly ominous? Yup. Did Darnold get picked off five times in the two games prior? Sure did. If there's an equally ominous trend working in the Vikings' favor, it's that Justin Jefferson seems like a volcano ready to explode. He hasn't scored a TD in six consecutive games and hasn't reached 100 yards in four straight, though he fell just one yard short against Arizona. In his entire career, Jefferson's never played five consecutive games without hitting the century mark. Good luck, A.J. Terrell.

Key Info

ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIN injuries: K Will Reichard (IR, quadricep), EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel (questionable, thigh), LB Ivan Pace (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ATL DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: Jalen Nailor, Vikings DST

ATL DFS fades: Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney
MIN DFS fades: Jordan Addison

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Robinson gets held to 60 yards. Cousins throws for 260 yards and two scores, hitting London and Kyle Pitts. Aaron Jones hangs onto the ball and churns out 80 yards and a touchdown. Darnold throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to Jefferson (who, yes, tops 100 yards) and one to Nailor. Vikings 31-20

New Orleans at N.Y. Giants (+4.5), o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

To my disappointment, this season overall has lacked much chaos since about the first month of the season. Yes, there have been some teams that defied preseason expectations like the Vikings and 49ers, but they reset those expectations early. For the most part, teams have been who they showed themselves to be in the first few weeks of 2024. Thank Eris for the Saints, though. The offense that scored 91 points in its first two games collapsed into a seven-game losing streak due to a plague of injuries, but now it's begun to look a little more like that early season juggernaut even though Taysom Hill and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been two of Derek Carr's biggest weapons. Well, they were anyway — Hill was lost for the season last week. New Orleans still has Alvin Kamara, and with Hill out of the picture his six-game TD drought might be due to end, but there's simply no way to predict which version of OC Klint Kubiak's offense is going to show up from week to week. How's this for a kooky stat? Since the beginning of November, the Saints are 2-0 when they give up more than 400 yards of offense, and 0-2 when they hold the opposition to less than 325. Does that make any sense? Absolutely not, and I love it. They have struggled outdoors this year, but this is only their third game without a roof over their head, so I'm not giving that too much weight. Even in a 23-22 loss to the Panthers in Week 9, New Orleans out-gained Carolina 427-246.

Some folks might try to lump the Giants into that "defying expectations" group, but they've certainly lived down to my preseason expectations. They were the first team in the NFC to hit 10 losses and the first to be officially eliminated from the playoffs, and they're the only team in the NFL that has yet to win a home game. How Brian Daboll has avoided blame for this debacle is beyond me — he has to be the most overrated coach in the league at this point, still living large on that wild-card win over Minnesota a couple years ago, even though they barely squeaked into the postseason to begin with. Since the, the Giants have gone 8-21 and seen the roster's base of talent constantly eroded by a parade of bad personnel decisions. Forget about the headliners like Daniel Jones' contract or the departure of Saquon Barkley, and look at how Xavier McKinney's doing in Green Bay, or even the fact that Ben Bredeson has started 12 games at left guard for the Bucs and hasn't allowed a sack. There's no way to look at this team and think it's in better shape than it was when Daboll and GM Joe Schoen took over. One more kick in the ribs for fans of Big Blue (sorry): the Giants are paying Drew Lock more in 2024 than the Steelers are paying Russell Wilson. Anyway, Lock gets another start even Daboll thought Tommy DeVito was a better option under center. Maybe Tyrone Tracy, Malik Nabers and the pass rush (tied for sixth in sacks, though only 21st in pressure rate) can bail them out.

Key Info

NO injuries: WR Chris Olave (IR, concussion), "TE" Taysom Hill (IR, knee)
NYG injuries: WR Malik Nabers (questionable, hip), TE Theo Johnson (IR, foot), DT Dexter Lawrence (IR, elbow), LB Bobby Okereke (out, back)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NO DFS targets: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
NYG DFS targets: Tyrone Tracy

NO DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: Malik Nabers

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Kamara pops for 150 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Carr throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding MVS and Juwan Johnson. Tracy racks up 90 yards and a TD. Lock throws for less than 200 yards but does connect with Darius Slayton for a touchdown. Saints 28-20

Carolina (+12.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Panthers' recent flirtation with competitiveness has them in danger of falling out of the top five in next year's draft, which I'm finding hard to wrap my head around. They have lost consecutive games, but only by a total of six points, and against one lock playoff team in Kansas City and another potential one in Tampa Bay. Bryce Young has gone three consecutive games without committing a turnover, and while his 58.5 percent completion rate, 6.5 YPA and 3:0 TD:INT over that stretch are nothing close to good, they do represent progress for him. Adam Thielen (11-156-1 on 14 targets in two games since coming off IR) and Xavier Legette (8-109-0 on 14 targets during those two games) give Young a couple adequate downfield options, and the backfield is beginning to drift toward a timeshare now that Jonathon Brooks is active, as Chuba Hubbard's 12 touches last week were his lowest total since Week 1. The defense remains a major problem — six of the last eight teams to face the Panthers have topped 400 yards of offense — but there may just be the faintest glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.

While the Eagles might not be the hottest team in the league on paper — the Lions had won 10 straight heading into Thursday — they are at least in the discussion, reeling off eight consecutive victories since their Week 5 bye. Saquon Barkley has gone straight past "making the Giants look bad" territory and into "aiming for history," as he's on pace to top Eric Dickerson's NFL-record 2,105 rushing yards from 1984. He's gotten better as the season has gone on, too — Barkley's missed 100 yards only once in the last seven games, averaging an eye-popping 6.6 yards per carry over that stretch. If he continues seeing massive volume (22.1 carries a game during that span) while maintaining that seemingly impossible efficiency, he might just run down Dickerson by Philly's 16th game and cut off any whining about the extra game on his schedule. To view Barkley's incredible campaign from another perspective, Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing last year. Barkley already has more rushing yards (1,499) than CMac did in 2023. As a result of his huge campaign, and well as the performance of a defense that went seven consecutive games without letting a team get to 300 yards before the Ravens managed 372 last week, Jalen Hurts kind of hasn't had much to do, at least with his arm. He's thrown for less than 200 yards in back-to-back games, and hasn't gotten to 250 since Week 6. Ten rushing TDs during the win streak has kept fantasy investors happy, though.

Key Info

CAR injuries: WR Jalen Coker (doubtful, quadricep), TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (questionable, neck), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (questionable, knee), LB Josey Jewell (questionable, hamstring)
PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (out, knee), EDGE Bryce Huff (IR, wrist), S Reed Blankenship (out, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CAR DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: Saquon Barkley, Grant Calcaterra

CAR DFS fades: Xavier Legette
PHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 50 yards and a TD. Young throws for less than 200 yards. Barkley steams ahead for 150 yards and two scores, while Kenneth Gainwell gets into the end zone as well. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards but hits Calcanterra for one touchdown and runs in another. Eagles 38-7

Cleveland (+6.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

As a fan of chaos, I am so happy to have Jameis Winston back in my life. Browns games have become appointment viewing, because you just never know what's going to happen when Winston's under center. The great thing is, he's productive enough that it encourages Cleveland's opponent to take some big swings too. Last week's loss to the Broncos featured this 70-yard TD pass to Jerry Jeudy (who was having the greatest revenge game in history for a wide receiver at 9-235-1 on 13 targets, plus a two-point convert), ONE PLAY after this 93-yard TD pass from Bo Nix to Marvin Mims. Winston threw for nearly 500 yards, and still found time for two pick-sixes — and he almost threw a third, but Cody Barton could only make it to about midfield before being caught from behind after intercepting it in the end zone. The Browns are 2-3 with Winston running the show, and while Kevin Stefanski may hate the kind of circus ball he plays, that's a heck of a lot better than the 1-6 record they limped to under Deshaun Watson. Nick Chubb's only averaging 3.0 yards a carry since his return, but he has at least gotten into the end zone three times in the last two games.

The Steelers have built a tiny bit of a cushion in the AFC North by winning six of their last seven games, but the one loss did come in Cleveland a couple weeks ago. Russell Wilson is coming off a performance reminiscent of his Seattle heyday, as he chucked up three TDs and 414 yards, including an incredible nine completions of 20 yards or more. Over four games since Pittsburgh's bye, he's posted a 7:3 TD:INT, 66.9 percent completion rate and 8.3 YPA, numbers more than good enough to make this a very dangerous team given the competent rushing attack and the strength of the defense. The Steelers have generated multiple takeaways in seven of their last eight, and the last team to reach 400 yards of offense against them was the Cowboys back in Week 5. The Browns also haven't won a regular-season game at Acrisure Stadium since ... jeez, since before it was called Acrisure Stadium. They did win a wild-card game in Pittsburgh a few Januarys ago, but during the regular season Cleveland's road losing streak in the rivalry stands at an incredible 20 games. Week 5 of the 2003 campaign was the last time the Browns won by the three rivers, as Tim Couch led a team coached by Butch Davis to a 33-13 victory over Bill Cowher's Steelers. There may be people reading this who weren't alive when it happened.

Key Info

CLE injuries: WR Cedric Tillman (out, concussion), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (IR, neck)
PIT injuries: WR George Pickens (questionable, hamstring), WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CLE DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: George Pickens, Steelers DST

CLE DFS fades: none
PIT DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Chubb ekes out 40 yards. Winston throws for 220 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does hit Jeudy and David Njoku for scores. Najee Harris bangs out 80 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Pickens (who tops 100 yards), Calvin Austin and Jaylen Warren. Steelers 34-17

Las Vegas (+6.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

At the moment, a slightly better strength of schedule than the Jaguars is all that stands between the Raiders and the first overall pick in the 2025 draft. Aidan O'Connell is coming off an impressive effort against Kansas City, throwing for a career-high 340 yards with two touchdowns, and in a college class that looks like it might only have two QBs worth selecting at the top (Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders), there might be nothing the 2023 fourth-rounder can do down the stretch to stake a real claim to the long-term starting gig if Las Vegas ends up with a top-two pick. That said, if O'Connell plays well enough to bump the Raiders a little further down in the first round next year, the front office might have a tougher decision on its hands. The defense has been mediocre at best — last week was the first time the Raiders had held an opponent to less than 20 points since Week 4, and the team's produced zero takeaways in three games since its bye — and the offense has managed more than 20 points only once since Week 3, but with rookie phenom Brock Bowers and stalwart wideout Jakobi Meyers providing O'Connell with two respectable targets, there's at least a solid floor for the passing game.

The Bucs are treading water in the NFC South, winning consecutive games to get back to .500 and sitting a tiebreaker behind the Falcons for the division lead. Their closing schedule is sweet, though — they get the Panthers, Cowboys and Saints in their final four fixtures, plus this one. Baker Mayfield's gone curiously quiet, posting a 2:2 TD:INT and 7.0 YPA in the last three games, but Mike Evans looked fully healthy last week (8-118-1 on 12 targets) and Bucky Irving has been doing some heavy lifting out of the backfield, scoring in all three of those games while racking up 424 scrimmage yards. Some improvement from the injury-plagued defense would be nice, but the only team that has failed to put up at least 23 points against the Bucs since the beginning of October is the Tommy DeVito-led Giants.

Key Info

LV injuries: RB Alexander Mattison (questionable, ankle), RB Zamir White out, quadricep), WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable, ankle)
TB injuries: RB Bucky Irving (questionable, hip), WR Trey Palmer (questionable, hip), S Jordan Whitehead (IR, pectoral)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LV DFS targets: Ameer Abdullah, Brock Bowers
TB DFS targets: none

LV DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Abdullah leads the LV backfield with 60 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown, while Sincere McCormick scores a TD as well. O'Connell throws for 250 yards and a second score to Bowers. Irving gains 70 yards and a touchdown, while Rachaad White also gets into the end zone. Mayfield throws for 330 yards and two TDs, finding Evans (who tops 100 yards) and Cade Otton. Buccaneers 34-24

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tennessee, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The two worst point differentials in the AFC clash in this one, as both the Jaguars and the Titans are at minus-111. (The Raiders are right there at minus-110, while the Panthers lap the field in the NFC at minus-149.) That deficit is likely to get a lot bigger the final weeks for Jacksonville, though, with Trevor Lawrence now done for the year and Mac Jones taking over at QB. The last three games, Jones has stumbled to a 61.4 percent completion rate, 2:3 TD:INT and 5.8 YPA, and the team has averaged 11.0 points a contest, or 33 total. The defense has coughed up more than that in a single game four times already this year. Jones does have rookie Brian Thomas and tight end Evan Engram to throw to, but the backfield's become a mess — the last Jags RB to get into the end zone was Tank Bigsby in Week 7. They also have just one win in their last 10 trips to Nissan Stadium, a Week 14 victory in 2022 in which Lawrence threw for 368 yards and three TDs and Engram erupted for 11-162-2. Let's just say I'm skeptical that Jones can match those numbers.

The Titans are only one win ahead of the Jaguars in the standings, largely because the offense has been stuck in the mud. Will Levis gives Tennessee a little more upside than Mason Rudolph, but no matter who's been under center, the Titans have scored more than 20 points just once in eight games since their bye. Tony Pollard has had his workload scaled back significantly the last month — he's gotten double-digit carries only once in the last four contests, even with Tyjae Spears seeing little action himself over that stretch — but presumably the idea is to keep the former Cowboy healthy. Levis should be good enough to give Calvin Ridley a shot at a revenge game, though considering he only played for Jacksonville for one season, I'm not sure how much animosity there could be. The Titans banged-up defense sagged badly last week, surrendering a season-high 463 yards and 267 rushing yards to the Commanders, but this would seem to be a very nice get-right spot for Jeffery Simmons and company.

Key Info

JAC injuries: QB Trevor Lawrence (IR, concussion)
TEN injuries: LB Kenneth Murray (questionable, hamstring), LB Jerome Baker (questionable, neck), S Quandre Diggs (IR, foot), CB L'Jarius Sneed (IR, quadricep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
JAC DFS targets: none
TEN DFS targets: Will Levis, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chigoziem Okonkwo

JAC DFS fades: none
TEN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Travis Etienne leads the JAC backfield with 40 yards. Jones throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Thomas. Pollard pops for 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Levis throws for less than 200 yards as well but hits Okonkwo for a score. Titans 20-10

LATE SUNDAY

Seattle (+2.5) at Arizona, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

With three consecutive wins since their bye, including one over the Cardinals, the Seahawks have built a one-game lead in an NFC West that remains extremely competitive. All three games have been slogs, with last week's 26-21 victory over the Jets only hitting the over thanks to a Kene Nwangwu kickoff return score and a Leonard Williams pick-six. Nobody hit even 300 yards of offense in any of those games, which doesn't bode particularly well given Seattle's remaining schedule — keeping teams like Green Bay or Minnesota below three bills is asking a lot. Geno Smith's got a 71.3 percent completion rate during the winning streak, but with just a 2:2 TD:INT and 7.2 YPA. DK Metcalf's been playing through a shoulder injury, which could explain some of the issues, while neither Kenneth Walker nor Zach Charbonnet have averaged even 4.0 yards per carry during that stretch. If Mike Macdonald's defense keeps playing over its head, the Seahawks won't need to put up huge numbers to get to the playoffs, but their margin for error seems thin. They should roll into this one with plenty of confidence, though, as the Seahawks are 5-0 against the Cards with Smith under center. Remarkably, four of those wins have been by exactly 10 points, with the exception being a 21-20 victory in Week 18 last season.

The Cardinals have dropped two straight after reeling off four consecutive wins ahead of their own Week 11 bye, and routing the Bears and Jets is looking less impressive by the minute. Unlike Seattle, though, Arizona's recent defensive dominance seems more sustainable — while DC Nick Rallis' unit only has three takeaways in the last four games, it's racked up 19 sacks while holding every opponent to less than 300 yards and 20 first downs. Kyler Murray's production has also been a mixed bag during that four-game stretch, as he's posted a 71.4 percent completion rate and 7.7 YPA but only a 2:3 TD:INT. He's at least done some damage with his legs in there. The narrative for the 2024 NFL season has become The Running Back Resurgence thanks to Saquon, King Henry and Josh Jacobs, but then you have teams like the Cards that used fairly significant draft capital to select a guy to be the future of their backfield (Trey Benson, in this case) only to hand a contract extension to the veteran ahead of him on the depth chart before the kid even has a chance to prove himself. James Conner's useful when he's healthy, and he has stayed healthy this year, but he ain't Saquon, King Henry or Jacobs. It's a ... curious use of resources, to say the least.

Key Info

SEA injuries: RB Kenneth Walker (questionable, ankle)
ARI injuries: S Jalen Thompson (questionable, illness)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SEA DFS targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
ARI DFS targets: Cardinals DST

SEA DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Walker leads the SEA backfield with 60 yards and a score. Smith throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, both to JSN (who tops 100 yards), but he gets sacked five times. Conner churns out 100 yards and a TD. Murray throws for 230 yards and two scores, one each to Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, while also running in the winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Cardinals 28-27

Buffalo at L.A. Rams (+3.5), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Juggernauts gonna juggernaut. The Bills are the first team this season to clinch not just a playoff berth but a division title, roaring into this one on a seven-game winning streak. At plus-131, Buffalo has the best point differential in the AFC, and nobody else in the AFC East is above minus-34. Nothing has been able to slow the Bills down, not even the weather — in last week's snow game against the Niners, they showboated to the point that Josh Allen became the first QB in NFL history  with a passing, running and receiving TD in the same game thanks to a bit of red-zone pitch-and-catch with Amari Cooper. There is some danger they'll look past this game to a potential Super Bowl preview in Week 15 against the Lions, but really, the Bills just feel too locked in to make that mistake. They've scored at least 30 points in six consecutive games, while the defense has produced multiple takeaways in five of those six. That's a tough combo to beat.

The Rams have alternated wins and losses since the beginning of November, fitting for a .500 team, but that doesn't bode well for them in this one considering they're coming off a victory over the Saints. Sean McVay's crew is just one game back of Seattle in the NFC West, and the division winner will probably come down to the head-to-head clashes late in the year. You can't blame the inconsistency on Matthew Stafford, as he's got a 14:3 TD:INT the last six games with a 65.4 percent completion rate and 7.5 YPA, but it is a bit weird that Demarcus Robinson has as many touchdowns over that stretch as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combined. Just when it looked like Kyren Williams' big early season workload might have caught up to him, he broke out for 104 yards and a score last week on only 15 carries. Blake Corum looked pretty good too, though (eight totes for 42 yards), so Williams might not get 20-plus touches again any time soon. The Rams' defense might be fraying, though — the unit's given up at least 320 yards and 120 rushing yards to three consecutive opponents, including the Patriots. That isn't going to cut it against the Bills.

Key Info

BUF injuries: WR Keon Coleman (questionable, wrist), TE Dalton Kincaid (questionable, knee)
LAR injuries: TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee), EDGE Jared Verse (questionable, ankle), LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BUF DFS targets: Khalil Shakir
LAR DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: Rams DST

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

James Cook erupts for 130 yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving, while Ray Davis also punches in a score. Allen throws for 320 yards and three more TDs, two to Cooper and one to Shakir. Williams manages 60 yards. Stafford throws for 290 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Kupp (who tops 100 yards), Nacua and Tutu Atwell. Bills 42-24 

Chicago (+3.5) at San Francisco, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Right after last week's Bears game, and that nearly incomprehensible display of clock mismanagement, if you'd told me Matt Eberflus was under specific instructions to lose games to get better draft position, I would have had to at least consider the possibility. Of course, him getting fired put an end to that little conspiracy theory ... or maybe that's just what they want you to think. Thomas Brown has now gone from passing game coordinator to OC to interim head coach for Chicago in less than a month, which is pretty good for a guy who got fired himself by the Panthers after last season's debacle. There could well be a dead-coach bounce coming for the Bears this week, and they have nowhere to go but up after losing six straight in increasingly bizarre fashion, a slide that started with that Jayden Daniels Hail Mary in Week 8. Caleb Williams has completed less than 60 percent of his passes in four of the six losses, but he does have a 5:0 TD:INT over the last two games, and nobody should be giving up on him yet. Even with new life in the locker room, though, Williams has a pretty banged up supporting cast coming into this game.

The Niners, of course, don't want to hear it. The idea of a "cascade injury," where one body part breaks down trying to compensate for another one that's already weakened, is pretty well established, but I wonder if it applies on a larger scale to entire rosters. One player gets hurt, so another tries to do too much to cover for him and then gets hurt as well. It's as good an explanation as any for what's happened to the 49ers this season. Rookie Isaac Guerendo steps into the top spot in the backfield with Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both out, but no unit on the team has completely avoided the injury bug in 2024. San Francisco's lost three straight to fall to the bottom of the NFC West, and this is the Niners' easiest remaining opponent on paper, so while a surge to the playoffs can't be ruled out, it doesn't feel remotely likely.

Key Info

CHI injuries: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, quadricep), RB Roschon Johnson (out, concussion), WR DJ Moore (questionable, quadricep), S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)
SF injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (IR, knee), RB Jordan Mason (out, ankle), EDGE Nick Bosa (doubtful, oblique), LB Dre Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles), S Talanoa Hufanga (IR, wrist)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CHI DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: Isaac Guerendo, Jauan Jennings

CHI DFS fades: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen
SF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Swift picks up 80 yards and a TD. Williams throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Cole Kmet and Rome Odunze. Kyle Shanahan's offense doesn't miss a beat with Guerendo, who busts out for 110 yards and a touchdown. Brock Purdy throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Jennings and George Kittle, and a Renardo Green pick-six is the difference. 49ers 28-24 

SUNDAY NIGHT 

L.A. Chargers (+4.5) at Kansas City, o/u 42.5
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Chargers remain comfortably on track for a wild-card spot, even if they have little chance at an AFC West title. Winners of four of their last five, the Bolts have had no trouble shutting down lesser offenses — the Bengals and Ravens are the only teams this season to score more than 20 points against them. Justin Herbert and the offense had also been zipping along quite nicely before last week, but a cross-country trip to Atlanta on a short week makes it easy to give them a mulligan. Prior to that, the Chargers had scored at least 23 points in five straight, but the stumble against the Falcons also came with J.K. Dobbins on the shelf. Jim Harbaugh is treating Gus Edwards like he's washed, giving him just six carries last week in Dobbins' absence, but rookie Kimani Vidal hasn't shown much to indicate he can handle the lead role either. John Kelly (the former Ram, not Joshua Kelley the former Charger, who's now a Titan) is now on the practice squad, so maybe he gets a look at some point. The alternative is to just unleash Herbert, who has yet to attempt 40 passes in a game this season, but that really isn't OC Greg Roman's style.

Since losing to the Bills, Kansas City has won two straight, but in both cases the defending champs barely escaped with a one-score win over an inferior opponent (the Raiders and Panthers). They've still already got a playoff spot in the bag and a three-game lead in the division, and they also won the first meeting this season with the Chargers — their sixth straight victory in this rivalry — so a ninth consecutive AFC West crown is all but assured. Of course, that's nowhere near good enough. Patrick Mahomes has been more reliable than dynamic lately, posting a 68.3 percent completion rate, 11:2 TD:INT and 6.6 YPA over the last five games, but he'll have some of the load taken off his shoulders once Isiah Pacheco is back up to speed. The RB got his feet wet with eight touches in his return last week, but his workload should grow quickly. The bigger concern is the defense, which is going in the wrong direction. The 434 yards that DC Steve Spagnuolo's unit gave up to Las Vegas last week was the highest total an opponent had hung on Kansas City since Week 1, and they've eked out just nine sacks and three takeaways over the last five games. Those simply aren't championship numbers, and while a one-and-done in the playoffs for a roster with this pedigree seems inconceivable, if KC gets stuck with the wrong matchup — the Ravens say, or maybe even the Texans — it's not a scenario that can be dismissed.

Key Info

LAC injuries: RB J.K. Dobbins (IR, knee), WR Ladd McConkey (questionable, knee), LB Denzel Perryman (doubtful, groin)
KC injuries: WR Hollywood Brown (IR, shoulder), K Harrison Butker (IR, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAC DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Xavier Worthy

LAC DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: DeAndre Hopkins

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Edwards leads the LAC backfield with 40 yards. Herbert throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Will Dissly and McConkey. Pacheco breaks out for 100 yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Worthy, who also runs in a TD. Kansas City 24-20 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Green Bay (+3.5) at Detroit, o/u 51.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

It's the rare Thursday game in which neither team is on short rest, as they both played on Thanksgiving. The Packers would be cruising to a division title in the NFC South or West, but in the North they're stuck in third place despite a 9-3 record, including three consecutive wins and victories in seven of their last eight. The one loss? It came against the Lions, of course, a 24-14 defeat at Lambeau in Week 9 when the weather couldn't slow the Detroit running game. Green Bay's lost five of the last six meetings in this rivalry, though the one win did come at Ford Field last year. Jordan Love's played much better football since then, though, posting a 69.1 percent completion rate, a 10.3 YPA and a 5:1 TD:INT the last three games against opponents that rank in the top 12 in QB rating against. The Lions, however, are No. 1 in that category. The offense has mostly become the Josh Jacobs Show, though, and he'd be getting a lot more attention for the great season he's having if it weren't for Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry hogging the headlines. Jacobs has topped 100 scrimmage yards in five consecutive games, piling up seven rushing TDs and 590 yards in that stretch. He's third in the league in rushing yards, and while it's a two-horse race for the crown, Jacobs needs only 13 yards Thursday to become the third back this season to reach the 1,000-yard mark.

That is, unless Jahmyr Gibbs beats him to it. Gibbs needs 27 yards to get to 1,000, and among RBs who didn't switch teams in the offseason, he might be having the best overall campaign (Bijan Robinson and Alvin Kamara are in that mix too, but Gibbs has more TDs while being less than 100 scrimmage yards behind them). He and David Montgomery give the Lions' offense an incredibly potent foundation, and last week's 23-20 win over Chicago was only the fourth time an opponent has stayed within single-digit points of Detroit during the team's 10-game win streak. Jared Goff's also headed for a career campaign, and some MVP chants from the home crowd in this one wouldn't be a shock. He's second in the league in completion rate behind Tua Tagovailoa (71.8 percent), first in yards per attempts at 8.8 and second to Lamar Jackson in QB rating. The defense has also taken a step forward in 2024, ranking fifth in rushing yards per game allowed in addition to that first-place ranking in QB rating against, and while the Lions aren't among the elite units in splash plays, they're still sixth in pressure rate even without Aidan Hutchinson. If there's a route to an upset for Green Bay, though, it'll come via Detroit's health in the trenches. Left Tackle Taylor Decker is out for this one, and the Lions also have multiple other missing bodies along the defensive line, including DJ Reader and Josh Paschal.

Key Info

GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (NFI, appendix), WR Romeo Doubs (out, concussion), LB Edgerrin Cooper (out, hamstring), CB Jaire Alexander (out, knee)
DET injuries: WR Kalif Raymond (IR, foot), LB Alex Anzalone (IR, forearm)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
GB DFS targets: Josh Jacobs
DET DFS targets: Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta

GB DFS fades: Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft
DET DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Jacobs rumbles for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Love throws for 230 yards and a TD to Jayden Reed. Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 100 yards and a score, while Montgomery adds 60 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 300 yards and three TDs, two to LaPorta and one to Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards). Lions 38-24

Last week's record: 14-2, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2024 record: 128-67, 98-95-2 ATS, 101-93-1 o/u