NFL Draft Recap: Day 1 Instant Rookie Reactions

This article is part of our NFL Draft series.

Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings: First Round Reactions from the NFL Draft

The NFL Draft always delivers as being one of the most entertaining television events of the year. Last night was no different as the first round was full of high-profile quarterbacks being drafted, receivers flying off the board, and some head-scratchers for all of us to joke about.

The goal of this article is to take account of each prospect's NFL pedigree while digging into their team fit to determine their redraft and dynasty value. I won't ramble on too much more here because there's plenty of rambling the rest of the way as I break down each of the fantasy-relevant selections from the first round.

Quarterback

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears 1st Overall

This pick has been a lock for months at this point, so let's dive right into how Williams will fare in Chicago this year and beyond.

In a word, I'm sold on him. The critiques about him being overly reliant on improvising and winning off-script are valid to an extent -- of course he's not going to be able to stand back there for seven or eight seconds and turn every busted play into a big play. But to say he only put up numbers in college because of busted plays is disingenuous.

It was no small feat for Williams to step onto campus at Oklahoma as a true freshman and force out Spencer Rattler. You could see the talent right away. Watch Williams' performance against Texas as a true freshman. Specifically, this play at 6:52.

On the run, a dot 55 yards downfield to help tie it in a huge rivalry game. Coming off the bench. There were signs.

Fast-forwarding past Williams' Heisman season at USC in 2022, there's no denying it was a rocky junior season. USC regressed and lost five games. He looked shaky against Notre Dame and Utah. The team got over-reliant on transfers at receiver and the offense looked clunky. The defense allowing 36.6 points per game in conference play didn't help, either. 

And yet, a lot of his numbers were better in 2023. YPA went up from 9.1 to 9.4. Interceptions remained static at just five. Completion rate went up two percentage points to 68.6. 

Williams will absolutely need to prove he can consistently win from the pocket, but he showed enough in that regard in college to believe he can make that work. It also helps that he's not going into a doomed situation like most No.1 overall picks. 

DJ Moore. Keenan Allen. Rome Odunze. A solid offensive line and a defense that will keep the Bears in games. There are strong tailwinds working in Williams' favor as he adapts to the NFL. 

According to the best ball ADP, Williams is being drafted as QB12 with an ADP near the end of the ninth. With the Odunze pick, I expect Williams' ADP to rise into the tier with Brock Purdy, Jordan Love and Kyler Murray. Love is undervalued and Murray got some help Thursday, but if I'm in the QB market at that stage, I'd be happy to end up with plenty of Williams exposure.

Williams is easily the best rookie quarterback in redraft/best ball formats and is a solid bet to be the best fantasy option among these signal-callers in dynasty as well.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders 2nd Overall

This is a pick I'm less sure of for this year and beyond. If you only isolated these quarterbacks to the 2023 season, Daniels would be the clear No.1. But that's not how this works. It's about the body of work. And while I'm not taking anything away from his Heisman season, I have questions about his pro projection.

Why did it take until his fifth college season to put up strong numbers? How much of it was tied to having Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas at his disposal? Sure he ran for 1,134 yards on top of his 40 TD passes in 2023, but will that rushing threat translate with his slight frame?

At the same time, Daniels deserves credit for developing into his final form at LSU, and it's important to note that he didn't have offensive coordinator continuity until he got to Baton Rouge. When he has a clean platform to throw from, he's deadly accurate from distance. Some of his deep shots to Nabers and Thomas this year were NFL-level dimes. 

Daniels will need to show he can still make those throws with an NFL rush in his face, which puts added focus on whether the arm talent is enough to where he's connecting downfield without having time to wind up. 

I mentioned the team context as something that works in Caleb Williams' favor. That might not be the case for Daniels in Washington. Having Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson (I still believe!) is nice, but the offensive line can only be described as ragtag and Kliff fricking Kingsbury is calling the shots. 

Maybe Daniels can still be a good fantasy quarterback; he has talent and if Washington is as bad as expected, he'll have plenty of runway to put up numbers just on volume and rushing attempts alone. I'm concerned about him holding up if he runs too much but if Daniels stays healthy, he's on the radar for redraft. 

I wouldn't take him over more statuesque vets like Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford in the 12th, but it wouldn't surprise me if he outperforms Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, or the other rookie QBs taken after him.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots 3rd overall

I'm convinced Maye will develop into an excellent NFL quarterback. The size, the arm, the mobility, the processing ability. It's all there. For our purposes (fantasy football), it might take him a bit to really unlock that potential in a meaningful way. If Daniels' team context is reason for concern, Maye's team context is reason for panic. 

Maye burst onto the scene in 2022 with remarkable numbers and film. 2023 was a little less kind to him due to some serious drop-off in his supporting cast. Still, despite that adversity, what Maye displayed over the last two years is a starter kit for a franchise QB.

Now, New England is hitting a hard reset with a new coach and a new quarterback tasked with resurrecting a moribund roster. Maye's best pass catcher is either Hunter Henry or Demario Douglas depending on your opinion. The depth is non-existent. Maybe that will change over the next few days but as it stands, Maye is going to have to turn chicken sh(you know what) into chicken salad. 

Even with the tough surroundings, Maye's talent makes him a worthwhile flier. He goes late enough in drafts (13th-14th round, QB 22) to where you can take a chance on him without it really burning you if it doesn't work out. 

Last year, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone who was overly optimistic about C.J. Stroud's fantasy prospects in his rookie season. The ADPs are similar, too. I'm not saying that Maye is this year's Stroud -- there isn't a Stroud in every class -- but there are parallels in the sense that talent and low acquisition cost can override some otherwise tough-looking optics in team context, resulting in a fantasy profit. 

Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons 8th Overall

Remember how the Falcons were set at quarterback when they signed Kirk Cousins this offseason? And how getting Cousins freed them up to either add to the defense or get him another receiver, like Rome Odunze, with the eighth pick? Ah, well. Good times.

This stands out as a draft-day head-scratcher in the same vein as the Tim Tebow pick in 2010 or Paxton Lynch in 2016. Not to say Penix is doomed to the same fate as those two -- he's far more talented. But in terms of using extremely valuable draft capital on a player who ideally won't see the field for the duration of Cousins' contract... I mean, what are we doing? Oh, and Cousins wasn't thrilled about the whole thing, either.

At least got some all-time spin zones, though. 

Anyway, so the Falcons drafted Penix for whatever reason. I'm not bagging on Penix, though pick eight would have been too high regardless of the team fit. I am bagging on the Falcons though. And this really could stunt Penix's career -- he's turning 24 in a few weeks and if things go as Fontenot hopes, we're talking about a 28-year-old with nearly no NFL snaps under his belt. Unless Cousins gets hurt sometime during his four-year, $180 million contract. 

Forgive me, it's hard to do any real fantasy analysis for this pick. Penix's redraft and dynasty stock take considerable hits. The only hope in dynasty is drafting him late and hoping the Falcons trade him in the next two years.

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings 10th Overall

Okay, back to normal. McCarthy being available at 10 allowed the Vikings to move up and get their guy without giving up the king's ransom it would have taken to trade with the Cardinals or Chargers. 

McCarthy is an interesting case. First-round quarterbacks generally carry their college teams at least in their final season and post elite production. That's not what happened with McCarthy at Michigan, where defense and running the dang ball ruled the day. 

He had 713 total pass attempts in three seasons (two as the starter) and 332 in 2023. That averaged out to 22.1 attempts per game. Not exactly heavy lifting. 

It's important to look at the film and the rate stats with McCarthy because sheer volume isn't going to paint the whole picture. He completed 72.3 percent of his passes at 9.0 YPA as a junior and demonstrated solid rushing chops (632 yards, 3.9 YPC, 10 TD) in his career. When Michigan needed a play through the air, McCarthy delivered more often than not.

The landing spot is fairly ideal for McCarthy. Sam Darnold could be the bridge to start the season until McCarthy is ready to take over, or the rookie could feasibly win the job out of camp. Having Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at his disposal when he takes over is a nice perk, too. 

As it stands, I'd take McCarthy with one of my last two picks in redraft in the event that he starts half the season and clicks right away. It could amount to a wasted pick, but how many sure things are there at that stage of the draft? I believe in the talent and the team context enough to throw that dart, even if he's only starting half the season. There's also the chance that his ADP (QB 29) skyrockets during camp if he wins the job, creating a few rounds worth of value if you buy in while the price is still low.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos 12th Overall

George Paton owes Terry Fontenot a nice steak dinner because the Falcons saved the Broncos from getting flamed for the biggest reach of the first round. Nix being a first-rounder isn't an issue in the current QB climate, but 12th? When the Broncos could have traded back and still gotten him? Hm.

There's some reason to keep Nix on your radar, though. He has a clearer path to a starting job than Penix and possibly even McCarthy. And while it took Nix a while to figure it out in college, but once he did, he was pretty lights out. In his two seasons at Oregon, Nix completed 75 percent of his passes (879 ATT) at 9.2 YPA with 74 touchdowns and 10 picks while rushing for 744 yards and 20 touchdowns. There are tools there. Once upon a time, he was a serious recruit before his stint at Auburn fizzled.

Nix only has Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson standing in his way and if he can't beat those guys out in camp, then we can just move along for this year. Assuming he does win the job, it's a Sean Payton offense (for whatever that's worth anymore) with decent pass-catchers led by Courtland Sutton. Nix's rushing prowess needs to be considered as well for his fantasy upside. 

Like McCarthy, Nix probably isn't worth more than a late-round dart in best ball drafts but if he ends up with the starting gig, I wouldn't be shocked if he puts up a few Top 12 QB weeks. 

Tight End

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders 13th Overall

Bowers is the highest-drafted tight end since Kyle Pitts in 2021. The recent track record for first-round tight ends is...well, it's a wide range. We have a lot of busts (O.J. Howard, Hayden Hurst, Brandon Pettigrew), some late bloomers (David Njoku, Evan Engram) a success (T.J. Hockenson) and an incomplete grade for Pitts. 

Maybe this time will be different. Bowers has been on the draft radar since his true freshman season as he led Georgia in every major receiving category (56 catches, 882 yards, 13 touchdowns) and outpacing future NFLers like Ladd McConkey, Adonai Mitchell, and Jermaine Burton.

Bowers never really slowed down, either. The touchdowns dropped off as he had 11 TD grabs the rest of the way, but he registered 58 and 56 grabs in those next two seasons while maintaining a YPT mark just over 10.0. He missed time as a junior with a high ankle sprain that required tightrope surgery, but Bowers returned to action after missing just two games. 

Bowers was unable to test at the combine or his pro day, which I could see being something of a red flag. He doesn't have a prototypical tight end frame, either. There's a long list of tight end participants at the combine that are 6-foot-3 and under 250 pounds. There's not a lot of success stories on that list. He's not Vernon Davis or Evan Engram. He's also not Pro Wells or Xavier Gravette.

However, the frame is eerily similar to that of Sam LaPorta, though LaPorta tested as a standout athlete to the point where we can just assume Bowers would have had the same metrics.

In terms of the landing spot, the Raiders still don't have a long-term answer at quarterback. That could work in Bowers' favor if deployed correctly though and he's mostly used as a pass-catcher given that his routes are at a lower depth and he'll be targetable earlier in plays.

It's odd that the Raiders would take Bowers a year after spending an early pick on Michael Mayer, but we can see how this is more of a problem for Mayer than it is for Bowers. 

Bowers is going as TE9 (late 7th round) and I'm confident that he'll be able to live up to that billing this year. Mayer will likely be stuck with a lot of the dirty work while Bowers works as a weapon out of the slot or as a route runner from an attached alignment. It's a bet on Bowers' talent, tape, and production.

Wide Receiver

Marvin Harrison, Arizona Cardinals , 4th Overall

This pick made all the sense in the world. Arizona is set at quarterback and several other spots while its receiving room coming into Thursday night was headlined by Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, and Chris Moore. 

Before we dig into the fantasy angle, let's see what Harrison offers as a player. In his first real start at Ohio State as a freshman in the Rose Bowl against Utah, Harrison caught six of eight targets for 71 yards. Ho hum. Three of those catches went for touchdowns. Ah. We knew the next two years would be special from him and that's exactly how it turned out. Back-to-back seasons with 14 touchdowns and at least 1,200 yards while averaging at least 10.4 YPT. Silly. 

Harrison didn't test at the combine because when you do what he did at Ohio State and solidify yourself as a Top 5 pick regardless, the normal rules don't apply to you. He's 6-4, 205 and runs every route to perfection while also having next-level hands and body control. The only knock might be long speed, but even then, we're starting to nitpick a little bit.

Harrison is clearly a premier dynasty asset. His redraft ADP is already maxed out...I think. The market has valued him as a mid-to-late second-rounder for months already, and landing in Arizona was already baked into that price since it was such an obvious fit. Put another way, Harrison going to Arizona shouldn't alter your perception for him from a fantasy angle since he was already being drafted under the assumption that he'd be Kyler Murray's WR1.

 If you're thinking that's too rich for an unproven player, I'm with you. I'm not sure how much Harrison exposure I'll have at that price. But if you weren't in before and now you're ready to take him at pick 15, I'm not sure what changed to put you in that headspace. He's going to be expensive to acquire and you'll be drafting him over the likes of Drake London, Davante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins and Chris Olave. 

Harrison's obviously a great prospect with the right setup to produce in Year 1. It's just a matter of profiting at the current ADP and him outperforming that strong group of vets.

Malik Nabers, New York Giants 6th overall

This is the wide receiver equivalent of Drake Maye having to overcome being on the Patriots. Love the player, hate the situation. No matter how good you think Nabers is, being tied to Daniel Jones and this offense hurts his value. 

Nabers is arguably the best big-play receiver in this class. Averaging 17.6 yards per catch over 89 receptions like he did last season at LSU is absurd. We only have Pro Day numbers in terms of his athletic metrics, but according to the good folks in Baton Rouge, Nabers runs a 4.38 in the 40 at 6-foot, 199 pounds. According to Pro Football Focus' data, Nabers had success all over the route tree from Go routes and corners to out routes and slants. 

The slant route detail is interesting because there's no way we can trust Daniel Jones to hit him deep, nor the offense line to give Jones enough time for those longer-developing routes to get to their breaks.

It might not be pretty, but Nabers' role as a high-volume target for the Giants right away might be enough for him to post fantasy WR2 numbers this season. He'll have to get there on talent and volume alone because he's playing on All-Madden compared to the other rookie wideouts. 

Nabers was going in the middle of the third round of best ball drafts before Thursday and I wonder if the landing spot will be enough for the market to cool on him. If Nabers is there George Pickens/Amari Cooper/Christian Kirk tier, I might have to hold my nose and take the plunge -- at least once every few drafts.

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears 9th Overall

Hard not to like this one. I had Odunze as my WR2 in this class coming into Thursday and now he gets to play in what should be an above-average offense. 

Odunze can do it all -- he's big and has the hops to play above the rim (39.0-inch vertical) but also has solid long speed (4.45) for his frame. The production at Washington speaks for itself with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and 20 touchdown grabs in his last two seasons. 

Whereas Harrison and Nabers will have to carry their respective passing games, Odunze has the blessing and curse of being the third option in the Bears' passing game. DJ Moore is a star, Keenan Allen is a receiver you can set your watch to, and the Bears may try to be balanced with the run game to take some of the pressure off of their rookie quarterback. 

This brings Odunze's target volume into question. He will have to be efficient with his looks in order to be a fantasy success this year because Moore and Allen are first in line for targets as long as they're healthy. The good thing is, we have reason to believe Odunze can follow through on that. Plus, being the No.3 option means fewer double teams, more free releases, and easier corner matchups. It can work. Odunze lining up against an overmatched slot corner? Come on.

With his already mid-fifth-round ADP, you already had to make some tough calls on picking Odunze over quality established players. It's hard to call exactly where his ADP will settle after the draft, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's an overzealous reaction and he moves up half a round to a round. 

In fact, this could set up an interesting ADP head-to-head between Odunze and Nabers. One plays in the healthier offense but is the third option. The other plays in a terrible offense but should get peppered with targets. Which do you prefer?

Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars 23rd Overall

Jacksonville played this one well, trading back from 17 and still winding up with the consensus WR4 in the class. With Calvin Ridley gone and Gabe Davis standing as the only offseason acquisition in the Jags' WR room, Jacksonville had to leave the first round with a wideout.

Thomas had pedestrian numbers his first two years at LSU before exploding for 68 grabs for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns on 89 targets in 2023. Having a Heisman quarterback and Malik Nabers drawing coverage away certainly didn't hurt, but production like that doesn't happen by accident.

Thomas cemented his first-round bonafides with a standout combine highlighted by a 4.33 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds. 

Now Thomas steps into a spot where he's the only receiver on the team that can win vertically. With Trevor Lawrence as his quarterback, that's pretty interesting. Christian Kirk should lead the team in targets and Gabe Davis will get plenty of run as the prized free agent, so those are important things to consider. As is the presence of Evan Engram, who somehow absorbed 143 targets last season. 

The thing to focus on is Thomas' skill set and role. He is far and away the best deep threat on the roster and should be used as such. That cuts both ways, though. Kirk and Engram being such big focal points underneath puts downward pressure on Thomas' target projection. Thomas will therefore need to crush it with the targets he gets. Having a high aDOT will put him in position to do so, but with his slow start at LSU, can we say for certain that he will have a smooth transition and instantly become a big-play receiver as a rookie? I think the talent's there, but I'm worried about the adjustment period. 

Thomas was going in the middle of the sixth round of best ball drafts heading into Thursday and while I believe in him in the long run because of the tools and the quarterback, I'm probably looking elsewhere in that range. 

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs 28th Overall

This pairing has struck fear into all non-Chiefs fans since Worthy set the combine record for the 40-yard dash. "What if the Chiefs get Worthy? Mahomes to Worthy are you kidding me?" Welp, it happened and we all have to live with it now.

Patrick Mahomes threw 41 touchdowns in 2022. One traveled more than 19 yards. The deep ball was absent last year as well with just eight completions of at least 40 yards and 50 completions of 20 yards, his lowest mark in a season with at least 500 attempts. 7.0 YPA was also a career-low.   Now that the Chiefs have not only Marquise Brown but also Worthy, the deep passing game is back in Kansas City. 

Worthy's fantasy projection is a little tricky. You'd think with such world-class speed and good college production that Worthy would be a slam dunk for redraft. I'm not so certain. Functionally, Worthy opens up parts of the field that weren't accessible to the Chiefs' receivers last year. That's worth something. But we're also still talking about a guy who's at best the third target in this offense by the end of the season, and that would require him surpassing Brown. Kelce and Rashee Rice are still the engines of this passing game, and Worthy and Brown may mostly be fast decoys that move the safeties back. 

The potential for the long touchdowns will keep me interested in Worthy in best ball but I have a hard time selling myself in redraft when I have to actively determine that this is the week he goes off. Other than the spike weeks, I'm not sure Worthy will have a consistent enough target share where you can confidently start him week-in, week-out. 

Great pick for the Chiefs but a tougher call for your fantasy team.

Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers  

This one's hard to parse barring some forthcoming movement in the 49ers receiver room. If San Francisco is planning to ship off Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel before the end of the weekend, then it made sense for them to take a receiver in the first round. If not, then I just don't understand.

The 49ers current passing game is concentrated between these four players to the tune of 78 percent of the targets. There isn't room for anyone else to do anything remotely fantasy-relevant. Something's gotta give, right?

So let's project that upwards of 22% of the targets are opened up by way of a trade. It's hasty to assume a rookie just gobbles up that share. Jauan Jennings is also still on the roster and has some value to this offense. A big trade might not be the golden ticket you'd hope for Pearsall's value.

To be clear, Pearsall is a quality wideout. Perhaps a reach at the end of the first, but someone who runs crisp routes and has great hands to go with top-notch short-area quicks and leaping ability. 

We'll have to see how this weekend shakes out because for now, there's too much in the air to give a solid valuation of Pearsall's fantasy stock. But suffice to say, if there's Pearsall ADP helium in the wake of a trade, I'm not sure I'm going to buy in at the new cost.

Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers 32nd Overall

Well, the Panthers had to do something to help Bryce Young, right? Last season was so alarmingly bad no matter how much/little blame you want to squarely place on him that the least the Panthers could do was get a talent infusion in that receiving corps.

Unfortunately for Carolina, because of its missteps in acquiring the first pick to draft Bryce Young, it began Thursday without a first-round pick. Moving up one pick to get the last selection in the first round isn't exactly earth-shattering. Taking the next receiver available after crossing six names off of that list can't feel like a slam dunk, either. 

At the very least, Legette is all but guaranteed a starting role and this offense does throw it a lot with 527 attempts for Young last season. With the new coaching staff coming with former Tampa OC, Dave Canales, there isn't an obvious parallel to draw to the Bucs' passing attack that applies to this group in Carolina. That said, we're not looking at a shift to a run-heavy offense.

Legette's an interesting prospect who took until his fifth season to break out. The breakout was impressive, though, as he caught 71 of 97 targets for 1,255 yards (12.9 YPT) and seven scores while registering an aDOT of 13.8 yards per PFF. The South Carolina offense itself averaged 8.1 YPA and generated 21 passing touchdowns. In other words, Legette carried that passing game. 

Legette also has an interesting workout metric profile. Built like a big running back at 6-foot-1, 221 pounds with 4.39 speed and a 40-inch vertical, Legette checks a lot of boxes as a wideout who can create separation or run through traffic thanks to his combo of speed and density. 

Being tethered to Carolina's passing game is a tough draw for Legette's redraft value but if Young can somehow turn it around under Canales, there's reason for optimism here. He was slotted with a mid 14th-round ADP coming into the draft and I can't quite tell if it will stay there or slip a bit with the market's pessimism about the Carolina offense. 

I'd take Legette over other WRs in that range like Pearsall Wan'Dale Robinson, or Malachi Corley but I'm not going to jump ADP for him. I'm not even going to take him over Rashod Bateman and if you follow me on Twitter, that's saying something.