NFL Draft: First-Round Fantasy Reactions

The first round is officially in the books and we have a lot to digest from Thursday night. Just three quarterbacks were selected Thursday night when most expected at least four, maybe five signal-callers to be drafted in the first. The elite running backs were drafted high with Bijan Robinson becoming the first Top 10 running back since Saquon Barkley to earn that distinction and Jahmyr Gibbs coming off the board at 12. The receiver market was slow to develop but the expected cast of characters all were selected in a cluster in the early 20s. Only one tight end was selected in the first round after upwards of three were expected to hear their names called.

In this article, I aim to provide a snapshot of each fantasy-relevant player selected and lay out my expectations for their rookie year impact and beyond. Let's dig in.

Quarterback

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

If you'd been following the NFL Draft futures or the draft in general, you knew this was coming for a couple of weeks now. And by now, you know the two lenses through which he's viewed. Young's proponents praise his football IQ, decision-making, anticipation, and accuracy. He absolutely checks those boxes. Young's detractors note that there simply hasn't been a success story in the NFL for a quarterback with his measurables. That's fair too; only Kyler Murray and Vernon Adams are close in recent history in terms of size. Murray was a far more accomplished runner than Young, who was hesitant to run during his time at Alabama.

So, which side am I on when it comes to Young? 

Well, I definitely understand why the Panthers took him first overall. If he overcomes the size issue and the team does its best to see to that, Young could be a star. It's definitely fair to be leery of him because of the size though. Making throws over the middle will be a challenge and if he drops back too far in the pocket to help see over his line, he runs the risk of taking a ton of sacks. And with that frame, that's an issue. And while there's some evidence to suggest his mobility can translate, it remains to be seen if it actually will. 

For this year, I'm leaving Young alone in redraft, one-QB leagues. The Panthers' skill position group leaves a lot to be desired after the DJ Moore trade and Adam Thielen and Hayden Hurst don't make up for that. Young is on the Superflex radar, but I'm taking Matthew Stafford over him every time and probably C.J. Stroud too if I'm going to target a rookie. 

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Remember when Will Levis was a lock to go to Houston? Good times. Anyway, the Texans jumpstarted their rebuild in impressive fashion Thursday night by getting their quarterback of the future and the best edge rusher in the class. 

Stroud was surgical during his time at Ohio State. Throwing for 40+ touchdowns twice and completing 69.3 percent of his passes at 9.8 YPA is spectacular no matter how star-studded his supporting cast was. Stroud also doesn't have the size concerns that Young does, checking in at 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds. The Jared Goff comps give us a decent baseline for us to work with, but I think Stroud could be better. He's less skittish in the pocket and has more zip on his passes than Goff. 

I know I said you couldn't attribute all of his production to playing alongside Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr., and a litany of NFL-caliber offensive linemen, but you can't ignore that completely, either. He was playing with an extreme competitive advantage every Saturday and landing in Houston will be a rude awakening from that dream setup. Brandin Cooks is gone and whatever's left of Robert Woods is not going to make up for that. I am optimistic on Nico Collins, and John Metchie should be able to hit the ground running this season, though. Working with former San Francisco passing game coordinator, Bobby Slowik, should help matters as well. 

In all, it won't be as easy for Stroud in Houston as it was in Columbus, but there's reason to believe that he can develop into an above-average NFL starter. We can't bank on a ton of rushing production from him, though it's always been a favorite factoid of mine that his lone box score contribution in 2020 was a 48-yard rushing touchdown against Michigan State. Stroud also showed functional running ability against Georgia in the CFP this past season, so perhaps some Joe Burrow-esque rushing output could be in the cards eventually. Stroud is the rookie QB I'll be targeting in redraft leagues. 

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

It's all about projection and development for Richardson. The tools are loud; he's 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, runs a 4.43 40, can jump out of the gym, and can throw the ball further than you'd ever need in a game. He also has just 13 games of starting experience and the film and stats show that there is a lot to be ironed out in order for him to fully unlock his physical gifts. He completed 54.7 percent of his passes and notched a 23:14 TD:INT ratio at Florida, though it's worth noting he played in two different systems the past two years and didn't have anything close to what Young and Stroud were working with in terms of supporting cast.

Gardner Minshew joining Indy this offseason takes the pressure off Richardson having to be ready to start Week 1. I'll have some best ball interest in Richardson as a QB3 because I'm skeptical that Minshew starts over the No.3 overall pick for the full season and I'm also bullish on the rookie providing some useful rushing production at the very least. There's also reason to be optimistic that Richardson that coach Shane Steichen can ultimately help unlock Richardson's potential in the long run.

Richardson is the ultimate boom-or-bust quarterback prospect *Draft Cliche Alarm Sounds* and while I don't expect him to have a huge rookie year, we could see him take over late in the year and show some flashes. And for Dynasty, I am very interested.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

We knew Bijan would likely be the first running back off the board, but we weren't sure where he'd end up. Philly at 10? Washington at 16? Later? No. Atlanta emerged as the favorite to take the Texas running back late in the process and that was a rumor that ended up sticking.

Robinson is as-advertised; the former five-star running back checks in at 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds with good but not great size-adjusted athleticism and a complete three-down skill set. I have no doubt that he will be a success in the NFL. He averaged 6.3 YPC over 539 career rushing attempts and has potential as a pass-catcher, though it's worth noting that his efficiency in that regard took a step back as a junior. 

Now comes the tricky part: where do we rank him for this year? He's obviously a Top 2 Dynasty asset in rookie drafts so we can leave that aside, but this is a funky landing spot as it pertains to his 2023 value. I thought Tyler Allgeier did more than enough to earn the job this year, and now any Allgeier shares you got before the draft look like huge overpays. But he's not going to disappear from the rotation, either.

It helps matters that Atlanta ran the ball a league-leading 559 times last year and I don't see that philosophy changing much given how bleak the quarterback situation looks. There should be more than enough carries to go around. I just worry that Allgeier sticks in the rotation just enough for him to prevent Robinson from hitting his ceiling. Robinson has been going as the RB4 in best ball drafts with an ADP near the top of the second round in single QB leagues. I've been fading him at that price and Thursday won't change that if the ADP goes unchanged.

Now, will the market overreact to the less-than-ideal landing spot and cause an ADP slide? I doubt it. At most, his ADP will settle no worse than RB7 and I'm just not sure I can take the plunge there, or at least with any appreciable frequency. 

Will I have Bijan FOMO in redraft this year? Absolutely. But I can't take him over Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker or Nick Chubb sight unseen. 

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Nobody saw this one coming, and my knee-jerk reaction was that I hope D'Andre Swift has a good real estate agent. The Lions already having Swift and David Montgomery had everyone feeling like backfield would be way off the radar for them in Round 1. But after some maneuvering around the board, Detroit went and got yet another piece there.

At this point, I expect Swift to be dealt by the end of the day Saturday. Gibbs wasn't drafted that high just to be the third-string running back. Maybe I'll be wrong, but either way, I don't see Swift as a significant barrier to Gibbs. I do worry about Montgomery in that he'll likely fill the Jamaal Williams role and might even do it better than his predecessor save for leading the league in rushing touchdowns. 

Back to Gibbs. He is light for a running back (199) but being 5-foot-9 helps with the density question and his speed (4.36) and pass-catching ability (77 percent catch rate, 9.0 YPT on 134 targets) give him a three-down skill set. I worry about Montgomery vulturing touchdowns and cutting into Gibbs' workload a bit, but Gibbs is a serious talent and the returns on his opportunities should be among the best in the league, especially behind that offensive line. Gibbs is going as a late-fifth or early sixth-round pick and I'd continue to get shares at that price if there is a market freeze amid the uncertainty with Swift. And whenever the Gibbs helium hits, I'll be willing to draft him at whatever the new ADP is.

Maybe Gibbs is just what we thought Swift was supposed to be. 

Wide Receiver

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

I love this pick. Seattle bided its time and had its top-rated receiver drop into its lap with its second pick of Round One. I didn't think receiver was a must for Seattle in the first, but the value here was too good to pass up and the fit is great. 

Tyler Lockett is not going to be around forever despite still being an effective player. And DK Metcalf is at his best when he's lined up out wide, so there should be room for Smith-Njigba to take on a significant slot role right away. 

I don't want to pigeonhole Smith-Njigba as slot-only but the measurables and athletic testing point to that being his best path toward success. He's a crisp route runner with extremely sure hands and can find the soft spot in any coverage, there are just limitations to his athletic profile. He won't be DK Metcalf, but he doesn't have to be. 

Seattle needed to get better production from the third option in the passing game and JSN fixes that problem right away. And there's a non-zero chance that he takes over as the No.2 option down the stretch of his rookie season. 

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

Like the JSN-Seattle pairing, this one makes plenty of sense. The Chargers receiving depth after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen was atrocious coming into Thursday and even those two are hard to bank on with durability concerns and age concerns in Allen's case. Johnston (4.51) doesn't solve the speed problem necessarily but he's a big receiver (6-foot-4, 212) that was one of the best deep threats in college football last season. 

I don't buy Joshua Palmer as a real threat to Johnston seeing the field, and the aforementioned durability issues with Williams and Allen could lead to Johnston playing an extremely high volume of snaps. Those who are concerned with Johnston's rawness may argue that this will leave Johnston overexposed for his current abilities, but if used properly, the rookie should be in line for a strong rookie season. Having Justin Herbert as his quarterback won't hurt, either.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

Not a bad day for the Ravens, huh? Inking Lamar Jackson to a long-term deal and getting one of the top receivers in the draft in a matter of hours will do a lot to smooth over what has otherwise been a tumultuous offseason in Charm City.

Now, the Ravens are famously bad at evaluating receiver talent at the top of drafts with far more busts than success stories. And Jordan Addison probably should have been the pick here if Baltimore was dead-set on taking a receiver. But even so, Flowers is intriguing.

Flowers was the only thing that worked in the Boston College passing game for the last four years. He topped out with a 29.5 percent target share as a senior which he converted into 78 catches on 130 targets for 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns. He played a mix of outside and slot at BC, but slot is his likely path forward at 5-foot-10 and 172 pounds. Flowers makes up for the lack of size with 4.42 speed and impressive short area quicks.

The offense should look a lot different with Todd Monken replacing Greg Roman. There should be a lot more three-receiver looks and that opens the door for Flowers to be the primary slot receiver with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham taking the bulk of the outside reps. Now, Monken did get plenty of production out of two tight end sets while at Georgia and Mark Andrews should still be the focal point of the passing game, so it's not like the Ravens will lead the league in three-wide sets. They just won't be dead last anymore. 

As for Flowers' rookie outlook, he's likely the No.4 option at best if everyone is healthy. And sure that's a big if, but still. I also wouldn't put it in Sharpie that he just displaces Devin Duvernay entirely. We'll have to see where Flowers' ADP (98 on Underdog) moves in the wake of the draft, but I'm probably staying away for the most part. Flowers can develop into a good player and it won't surprise me if he makes some splash plays this year, I just doubt the week-to-week consistency will be there enough for him to be a startable commodity for most of the season.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

We might be looking at the rookie receiver to target in redraft with Addison. His dynasty value is a little more up for debate, but Addison is going to hit the ground running in Minnesota. Obviously, Justin Jefferson will command one of the highest -- if not the highest -- target shares in the league. That doesn't mean this offense can't support two fantasy-viable receivers. Adam Thielen was still commanding over six targets a game last season, and Addison should be able to do a little (read: a lot) better than his predecessor's 6.7 YPT.

Addison for his own part had something of a disappointing pre-draft process. The combine wasn't kind to him and now there are questions about his size, catch radius and even long speed. 

Still, production like Addison's in college doesn't happen by accident. 3,134 yards. 29 touchdowns. A catch rate just under 70 percent. He's extremely skilled and proved, at least in college, that he can hack it either outside or in the slot.

K.J. Osborn is a WR3 in an NFL offense at best and Minnesota didn't pick Addison to redshirt him this year. Addison is going to have a fantasy-relevant role from the jump and even if there's no path to him sniffing the No.1 role in Minnesota as long as Jefferson is there, he's going to be a factor. 

Tight End

This is a very strong tight end class even if it only produced one first-round selection with Dalton Kincaid going to Buffalo. Michael Mayer, Sam LaPorta, Darnell Washington are all excellent prospects. The fact of the matter is that not many teams are in the market for a TE this early, and this year was further proof of that. 

As for Kincaid, there's a lot going on here. He wasn't able to test at the combine or Utah's pro day while recovering from a back injury. So now a player whose athleticism is supposed to be his calling card now has no verified workout metrics. And Kincaid is undersized for a tight end, so his strongest proponents better hope that he's every bit the athletic playmaker they say he is because he is going to be a liability when asked to block. Last thing: Kincaid will turn 24 as a rookie.

It's not all bad with Kincaid, to be clear. His production at Utah was very strong; he caught 75 percent of his targets at just under 10.0 YPT while scoring 16 touchdowns over the last two seasons. 

Buffalo must have a specific plan in place for Kincaid for this to work because he's not supplanting the newly-extended Dawson Knox for in-line functions. In neutral situations last year, Buffalo ranked 31st in two tight end personnel usage according to NFELO. Again, Buffalo spent a first-rounder on Kincaid so he's going to play. The question is whether he'll play enough snaps to be a worthwhile fantasy asset this season. I was already targeting other tight ends in his ADP range (~200) and now with first-round draft capital, Kincaid shares are going to be pricier and I'm not sure if I'd be willing to pay the new price if the old one was already suspect.