This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props
Week 1
My beloved Bills travel across the state Monday night to take on the Jets in... East Rutherford, New Jersey. Contrary to last season where everyone was on the Bills, no one seems to think they're actual Super Bowl contenders this year. I'd like to think I've given honest opinions about them over the years (I was not on the Josh Allen bandwagon at the beginning) so hopefully I can continue to do the same. Let's look at the MNF game and see what I like.
Bills -2 (-110 FanDuel, DraftKings)
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Look, this whole offseason everyone is second-guessing the Bills and Josh Allen. This is a stand-alone road game and hypothetically, Aaron Rodgers should be the hero and lead the Jets to a win. However, Rodgers is on the wrong side of 39 and he isn't Tom Brady. The Bills have a healthy Von Miller at their disposal and Josh Allen remains one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I don't think the spread means anything here, so I don't mind laying the points and taking the Bills.
Over 45.5 Points (-110 FanDuel, DraftKings)
First, for both this line and the point spread, I'd keep an eye on them all day as they're likely to change during the day up until kickoff. The beauty of the taking the over is once it hits, it's done, you don't have to worry about winning the under. I'm not totally on board here, but if I have to make a choice, I'll go over. Both teams are sound on both sides of the ball and I'm guessing there could be a defensive/special teams score in this game adding to the total.
Deonte Harty Anytime TD (+700 FanDuel, DraftKings)
Harty is set to return kicks for the Bills and may end up as their third receiver behind Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Khalil Shakir appears to be the odd man out for the third wide receiver role, which means Harty should see softer coverage lining up with Diggs and Davis. This line was around +380 earlier in the week so it's a big value right now at +700. This is a great example of risking a little to win a lot and the odds are likely better than what they actually are.
Josh Allen + Aaron Rodgers OVER 507.5 Passing Yards (+100 DraftKings)
Yes, I did go and criticize Rodgers based on his age and that this is still, the Jets. However, this line suggests we don't need either one to be a 300-yard passer for the game, they just both need to get in the 260-270-yard range for throwing. Both have very talented wide receivers and running backs who an catch out of the backfield and there's still a strong chance that one of the two does throw for 300 yards or more. This is another case of once the over hits, it'll almost certainly stay there so I like the OVER here.
