Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Ravens vs. Rams

The Ravens travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams as 3.0-point road favorites in a game with a decent 46.5-point total. Baltimore comes in red hot, winners of six straight, including scoring at least 30 points in four consecutive games. Their offense hasn't been their only success, as their defense has held opponents to 20 points or fewer in all but three games, including each of their last five. Meanwhile, the Rams come in sputtering, scoring just 29 points in their past two games combined, with their only wins in the past seven coming against the Falcons, Bengals and Bears. They've been solid defensively, allowing 20 or fewer in each of their last five, which certainly contributes to the lowish total for two teams that can put points on the board when they're clicking.

QUARTERBACKS

Given his ridiculous season, it's no surprise that Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson ($13,600 DK, $17,500 FD) is the most expensive player on both sites by a considerable margin, costing $3,400 more than the next highest on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel. Captaining him on DraftKings pushes his salary to $20,400, accounting for 40.8 percent of the salary cap. Jackson has scored at least 21.3 fantasy points in all but one game this season, including more than 32.0 in three of his last five. He doesn't pass for a high number of yards, but seven passing touchdowns in the past two games plus his usual rushing production has kept him elite. Speaking of the rushing production, he is 11th in the NFL in rushing yards, averaging 6.7 yards per carry, and he's more than 350 yards ahead of the second-highest rushing quarterback. One of the reasons Jackson has been such a popular play is that he doesn't have any consistently strong receivers where playing them instead of Jackson would make sense. The salary is pretty ridiculous, but there will be people who captain Jackson because of his extremely high floor, even facing a defense that's allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks on DraftKings and 11th-fewest on FanDuel. Then again, they've allowed more than five QB rushing yards just once this season and multiple passing touchdowns twice. Of course, they haven't played anyone remotely close to Jackson, mostly because there is no one like Jackson.

Meanwhile, the Rams' recent success seems to be more in spite of Jared Goff ($8,400 DK, $14,500 FD) than because of him, as he threw for more than 270 yards just once in the past five games, and he has zero touchdowns versus four turnovers in his last two. Making matters worse, he's facing a Ravens defense that's allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, including fewer than 15.0 in five of the past six. There's little reason to be optimistic about Goff other than he's at home, where he's been better in his career, though he's also scored fewer than seven fantasy points in two of his last three home games. Needless to say, Goff probably shouldn't be a popular captain/MVP choice for those who play single or limited entries, as it's probably better to focus on his receivers or running backs.

RUNNING BACKS

Given the presence of Jackson, it's no surprise that the Ravens have more rushing attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL, and while he leads the team in yards, Mark Ingram ($10,200 DK, $14,000 FD), the second-most expensive player on DraftKings and third-most on FanDuel, leads the team in carries (136) and rushing touchdowns (eight). The difficulty with relying on Ingram is that his volume is never really that high, partially because of Jackson but also because of backup running backs Gus Edwards ($2,600 DK, $8,500 FD) and Justice Hill ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) Their rushing attempt trend says it all:

Hill's touches are too few to rely on for most DFS lineups, while Edwards is pretty much in the same situation even after rushing for 112 yards and a touchdown last week against the Texans. The problem? It was on only eight carries, not to mention he hasn't been targeted on a pass since Week 5. Meanwhile, Ingram hasn't had more than 15 carries since that same Week 5 game, and he's failed to reach 55 rushing yards in all but one of his last six games. Ingram would normally be in consideration, but his extremely high price makes it tough to swallow for those looking to roster Jackson. That being said, Ingram could be an interesting differential captain/MVP pick if lots of people try to jam in Jackson.

The Rams' backfield has been dominated by Todd Gurley ($8,800 DK, $13,500 FD) of late, as he's accounted for 40 of the team's 54 rushing attempts in the past two games, a span that saw him rack up 170 rushing yards and a touchdown while also adding three catches on seven targets for 36 receiving yards. Given the struggles in the Rams' passing game, Gurley could be a popular option even though the Ravens have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs on DraftKings and FanDuel. Unlike Ingram, Gurley's competition for carries isn't nearly as high because Goff doesn't run like Jackson (in fairness, no one does), but making a case for Malcolm Brown ($2,200 DK, $7,000 FD) or Darrell Henderson ($600 DK, $7,500 FD) is tough since the former has 10 carries for 25 yards and a touchdown over the past two games while the latter has four carries on four yards in that span, including zero carries or targets last week against Chicago. Rostering Brown or Henderson seems better off for those with a ton of lineups, as it's just tough to see either getting enough meaningful carries as long as Gurley is healthy.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Gurley's increase in usage has come as the Rams' pass catchers have gone extremely cold, partially due to injuries and partially due to inexplicable loss of targets. Cooper Kupp ($9,800 DK, $13,000 FD), Robert Woods ($7,000 DK, $11,000 FD) and Brandin Cooks ($6,600 DK, $9,500 FD) were an excellent trio for the Rams last season, and while Kupp was one of the most targeted receivers in the league through the first five weeks of the season, averaging 12.6 targets per game, he's fallen off considerably, seeing just 6.2 passes per game thrown his way over the last five. Woods also saw significant usage in some games but very little in others, while Cooks was never the highest-volume of the group, and he's had three or fewer in three of his last four games. Cooks missed the past two games because of a concussion, but he's been cleared to return Monday. Here's a breakdown of the targets this season:

I'll also note that Woods has more targets and receptions than anyone in the NFL who hasn't scored a touchdown, and the Chargers' Mike Williams is the only wide receiver with more yards among the touchdown-less group. So, positive touchdown regression, right? Unfortunately, Woods has just three red-zone targets this season, and none were inside the 10-yard line. Kupp will likely be the highest owned of the group because he's been the most successful, but there's a decent regression case with Woods, who had 11 targets in his last game (he missed Week 11 due to a personal issue). 

The returns of Woods and Cooks likely means Josh Reynolds ($3,400 DK, $8,000 FD) will play fewer snaps, though he did lead the team in targets over the past two games if you only count players who played in both. He had at least 49 yards in each of the past three games, including one with a touchdown, but again, it's tough to see him being anything more than a flier with the other guys back. Mike Thomas ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) is another receiver who has gotten more work but will likely be pushed back to the sideline. 

The tight ends shouldn't be ignored, though they don't have the big-play upside of the wide receivers. Gerald Everett ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) has been significantly more active than Tyler Higbee ($1,000 DK, $6,000 FD), and they both trail only Kupp in terms of red-zone targets this season. Consideration for either guy is fully about their ability to score touchdowns and not because of any potential volume, with Everett definitely the priority among the two. Then again, the Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends on DraftKings and fifth-fewest on FanDuel.

Baltimore's pass catchers are a little easier to figure out, if only because they have thrown the fewest passes in the league this season. Impressively, only five teams have more passing touchdowns and only six have a higher YPA. Tight end Mark Andrews ($9,200 DK, $12,500 FD) leads the team in targets (70), receptions (48), receiving yards (598), air yards (666) and receiving touchdowns (six), so it's no wonder he's more expensive than any other Raven aside from Jackson and Ingram. Then again, wide receiver Marquise Brown ($8,000 DK, $9,000 FD) is second on the team in targets (51), receptions (30), receiving yards (477), air yards (617) and receiving touchdowns (four), and he's played two fewer games than Andrews. Brown's 12.3 aDOT is a testament to his big-play ability , and while Miles Boykin ($1,600 DK, $5,500 FD) leads the team with 15.7 aDOT, he hasn't gotten more than three targets in a game this season. Brown will surely be owned because he's moderately priced for a no. 1 receiver (particularly on FanDuel), though we shouldn't ignore that he's had more than four catches only once this season and it came back in Week 2.

Tight end Nick Boyle ($3,000 DK, $7,000 FD) and wideout Willie Snead ($3,200 DK, $5,500 FD) are third and fourth in targets, respectively, but neither has more than five targets in a game this season. Boyle has actually played over 100 more snaps than Andrews, but he also blocks significantly more. In fact, he blocks more than third-string tight end Hayden Hurst ($800 DK, $6,000 FD), who hasn't had more than two targets in a game since Week 5. And while Snead is technically the no. 2 wide receiver, he hasn't had more than two catches in a game since Week 6, and there's little reason to think an explosion is coming Monday night. Ultimately, Andrews and Brown will garner the most attention in terms of ownership, with both making for decent captain/MVP consideration if only because they aren't as expensive (which only applies to the DK salary multiplier) as Jackson or Ingram.

KICKERS

Ravens kicker Justin Tucker ($4,000 DK, $10,000 FD) is the best kicker in the NFL and will surely be owned for his floor. The Ravens' offense has been so good this season that Tucker has been consistently scoring, whether with field goals or PATs, and he has dipped below 7.0 fantasy points just twice, with the last coming back in Week 4. He'll surely be popular in cash games because of that consistency, though his upside is somewhat limited because of, you know, being a kicker. 

Greg Zuerlein ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD) is no slouch, though he's also scored six points or fewer in each of the past three games, obviously coinciding with the Rams' offensive struggles. Given the matchup Monday against the elite Baltimore defense, it might be tough to see a high output game from Zuerlein, who hasn't had multiple field goal makes since Week 7 (the Rams were off in Week 9).

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Rams' defense ($2,800) has been excellent this season at getting to the quarterback, and they haven't been allowing many points, helping them score at least 9.0 fantasy points in four straight games. Unfortunately, they are likely to have a tough time wrapping up Jackson, and the Ravens are fully expected to put points on the board. They will at least be a differential pick, but it's tough to say they have high enough upside without the extremely variant defensive or special teams touchdown. 

The Ravens defense ($5,600), on the other hand, has been one of the league's best over the past four weeks, both in real life and fantasy, scoring at least 13.0 fantasy points in four straight games, a span that saw them register nine turnovers, 12 sacks and five touchdowns. The salary is pretty high for what we've seen for many showdown slates this season, but up against Goff, who has the fifth-most fumbles and fourth-most interceptions in the NFL, and it could be another big game for the Baltimore defense, enough so that they'll surely have some captain consideration on DraftKings.