Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Buccaneers vs. Giants

After getting an NFC East showdown on Sunday Night Football, we get the division's last-place team for another nationally televised affair, this time against the team atop the NFC South. No team scored more points through the first seven weeks of the season than the Buccaneers, who are 12.5-point favorites on the road against the Giants in a game with a 45.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. There's really no reason to go deep into how differently the teams are since one being a 12.5-point road favorite pretty much does that for us, so let's just jump into the players.

QUARTERBACKS

The two quarterbacks in this game have combined for nine Super Bowl appearances, six Super Bowl victories, four Super Bowl MVPs and 14 Pro Bowl appearances, so it's no surprise they are the two-most expensive players on FanDuel.

Tom Brady ($12,000 DK, $16,500 FD) is the most expensive player on both sites, which isn't surprising given he has the second-most passing touchdowns and sixth-most passing yards in the NFL this season. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones ($9,200 DK, $15,000 FD) is 29th and 24th, respectively, which is pretty impressive considering the Giants haven't had their bye yet. Understandably, their passing props are pretty different on DraftKings Sportsbook, with Brady's passing yards at 260.5 versus 219.5 for Jones, while the former is -167 for over 1.5 touchdowns and the latter is +178 for the same (and -230 for the under). On the plus side for Jones, he finally has most of his receivers after losing some to injury, but on the negative side he's facing a Buccaneers defense that's allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, with four of seven throwing for zero or one touchdown, while four were held under 250 yards. We can also look that none have reached even 20 rushing yards, though none of Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Jeff Driskel/Brett Rypien, Justin Herbert, Nick Foles, Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr are really known for doing much with their legs. Jones has also only thrown five touchdowns in seven games, but we can go half-glass-full by noting three came in the past two games, and if there's one thing that's saving Jones a bit it's his rushing yards, as only Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson have more than his 296, including 92 just last week. Unfortunately, he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown despite all those yards.

Meanwhile, the Giants have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of seven games, including each of their last two, which came against Football Team and the Eagles. Additionally, they've generally been better against the run, allowing over 100 rushing yards only twice this season, so it's possible Tampa Bay relies more on Brady's arm to move the ball down field. One of his receivers has a pretty poor matchup (more on that later), and he won't have Chris Godwin (finger), but Brady figures to be very popular even though he's expensive, and he'll surely be in plenty of rosters as captain/MVP. Using Jones in the captain/MVP spot will be a favorite move for those who love to play contrarian, but it's a high-risk plan.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

The lack of Godwin makes us think it might be a Mike Evans ($10,800 DK, $14,000 FD) week, but he seems likely to be shadowed by James Bradberry, a matchup that makes him a downgrade in Mario Puig's Week 8 Corner Report. Evans' season has been extremely up-and-down, as he had either two or 100+ receiving yards in half of his first four games, and he's had only three catches on four targets for 47 yards in his last two. He also started the season with at least one touchdown in five straight games, but his touchdown-less streak is now at two games, a span that saw him get zero red-zone targets. Surely there will be people who target Evans because Godwin is out, but the Bradberry matchup seems like a situation that keeps him from reaching his ceiling.

On the other hand, Scotty Miller ($8,600 DK, $11,000 FD) and Tyler Johnson ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD) are upgrades in the Corner Report. Evans and Godwin both have more receptions than Miller, but the latter's 365 receiving yards lead the team, and he's third in targets. Additionally, he leads the team with 527 air yards and a 16.5 aDOT, which were boosted by last week's game when he caught six of nine targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. Johnson isn't likely to be overly popular even with the lower price, though he did score red-zone touchdowns in each of the past two games. Unfortunately, he was only targeted three times in that span, finishing with 11 yards. Presumably, Godwin's absence should open up more playing time for Johnson, like we saw in Week 5 when he caught four of six targets for 61 yards, but there's no guarantee that happens again Monday, especially because of the recent re-emergence of tight end Rob Gronkowski ($8,000 DK, $9,500 FD).

He started the season off slowly, but Gronkowski has been excellent over the past two games, with five catches on eight targets and a touchdown in each game, totaling 140 yards in that span. He's become one of Brady's favorite weapons, and particularly near the end zone, with targets inside the five-yard line in each of the past two. The Giants have been decent against tight ends this season, but there's little reason to think Gronkowski is at a disadvantage against them. One guy who might struggle to make an impact is Cameron Brate ($1,400 DK, $6,000 FD), but that's more because Gronkowski is getting all the relevant tight end opportunities. In fact, he comes in with the same number of receptions (22) and four more targets (36 to 32) than Miller, though as a tight end, he's only accounted for 280 receiving yards and 368 air yards versus Miller's 365 and 527, respectively.

Moving further down the depth chart really only brings in long-shot options who are moving up because of Godwin's absence, but theoretically guys like Justin Watson ($800 DK, $6,000 FD), Jaydon Mickens ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Cyril Grayson ($200 DK, not on FanDuel) and tight end Tanner Hudson ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) could get more offensive snaps, which increases their potential fantasy returns (though we're increasing them from basically zero, so don't get too excited).

Referring back to the Corner Report, each of the Giants' top three receivers got downgrades, which, you know, isn't great! The Buccaneers have allowed a wide receiver touchdown in just one of their last three games, so it's going to be a struggle to find reasons to be optimistic about Darius Slayton ($7,000 DK, $12,000 FD), Sterling Shepard ($6,600 DK, $9,000 FD) and Golden Tate ($3,000 DK, $7,500 FD). You can add tight end Evan Engram ($5,800 DK, $8,500 FD) to the list, because while the Bucs have allowed a touchdown to the position in three of their last four games, they've kept them to fewer than 60 yards in every game since Week 1.

Tate seems like the obvious No. 4, with only one catch in each of the past two games, and Shepard's return last week doesn't bode well for thinking there will be targets available for him. Shepard, Slayton and Engram, the latter of whom led them with nine targets last week after strangely getting just five in the previous two games combined, should still get opportunities if the Giants are forced to throw while playing catch-up, with Slayton likely the most popular because of his team-leading 604 air yards and 12.6 aDOT, indicating he may not need a ton of targets and receptions to make an impact.

It seems unlikely that the Giants pass catchers will get much captain/MVP consideration, though theoretically you can make the case for contrarian reasons. Otherwise, the Bucs' wide receivers, specifically Evans and Miller, and maybe Gronkowski will get looks there too, though Brady surely will more popular because of his preference to spread his passes around.

RUNNING BACKS

The Giants' backfield is a hot mess, and they'll rely on Wayne Gallman ($5,200 DK, $11,500) and Dion Lewis ($1,200 DK, $7,000 FD) against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, including a league-low 2.72 yards per carry. Gallman, who will start in place of the injured Devonta Freeman (ankle), is coming off his best game of the season, rushing 10 times for 34 yards and a touchdown while catching all five targets for 20 receiving yards, while Lewis is the passing-down back but has one target in the past two games. So, yeah.

The Buccaneers' backfield is really frustrating, as Ronald Jones ($8,800 DK, $13,000 FD) is more than good enough to be the dominant running back, but for some reason Leonard Fournette ($6,200 DK, $10,000 FD) keeps playing, including a 56 percent snap share last week when he rushed 11 times for 50 yards and caught six of seven targets for 47 receiving yards. Jones only mustered 13 carries for 34 yards and a touchdown while catching half of his two targets for two receiving yards, so while the Giants have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to running backs, you're really taking a chance on either Jones or Fournette. Here's Jerry Donabedian's breakdown in this week's Hidden Stat Line:

• LeSean McCoy and Ke'Shawn Vaughn technically were active for the game, but the vet didn't play at all, and the rookie was limited to two snaps on special teams.
• RoJo started and played nine of 13 snaps in the first quarter, but Fournette then took 23 of 26 in the second quarter.
• It shifted back to RoJo for 11 of 13 snaps in the third quarter, followed by Fournette taking an 11-8 advantage in the fourth.
• Jones didn't play a single snap on third downs. Fournette got 12 of 13, and the Bucs had one other without an RB on the field.
• Jones and Fournette got three red-zone carries apiece. Fournette got seven of the 10 snaps in goal-to-go situations, and three of the four snaps inside the 5-yard line. However, Jones' lone snap inside the five went for a one-yard rushing TD, while Fournette was stuffed for a loss on his one carry near the goal line.

If one of Fournette or Jones were out then the other would probably be very popular, but fantasy players aren't likely to flock to Jones because of Fournette or vice versa. That doesn't mean they can't be useful flex plays, especially in a game the Buccaneers are supposed to dominate, but their captain/MVP popularity will probably be low.

KICKERS

A lower-scoring game likely puts the kickers in play, though we have to appreciate that the Buccaneers still have a solid implied total since they're such big favorites. Ryan Succop ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) has scored at least 8.0 fantasy points in five straight games, and he makes for a very solid floor play in this one, as he's scoring a solid number of points either through field goals or PATs. 

The Giants' offense has also been good enough at moving the ball to get Graham Gano ($3,600 DK, $8,000 FD) enough kicking opportunities to make him a viable play, and given the tough matchups the Giants' receivers and running backs face, maybe Gano is the key to their fantasy points. Neither figures to be overly popular, but there are definitely cash-game reasons to consider them.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Giants defense ($2,400 DK) has been fairly poor this season, but touchdowns in two of their last three games helped bolster their fantasy returns. It's very tough to rely on those highly variant situations, especially against Brady, who has just four interceptions and eight sacks taken this season. However, the Buccaneers ($7,400 DK) could get some attention against a quarterback who has thrown the third-most interceptions (seven), fumbled the third-most times (five) while taking the fifth-most sacks. The Bucs also have 24 sacks in the past five games, and really the only thing that may make some people hesitate is that they're expensive, sitting above Slayton, Shepard and Fournette and only $600 less than Gronkowski. Captaining the Bucs defense works if Jones is a disaster, more so because you can fit in more Tampa Bay flex plays, as a defense's ceiling isn't usually that high.