Jaydon Blue: Can He Become Dallas' Lead RB in 2025?

This article series will look at 2025 NFL rookies and break down the full scope of their situation – their talent level and their projected opportunity – and weigh its merits against the emerging best ball ADPs of those rookies following the NFL Draft.

This article will look at Jaydon Blue, the Texas running back selected by Dallas in the fifth round (149th overall). As of Wednesday the ADP on Underdog lists Blue at 131.2, which is just about the end of the 11th round. Blue's hype could pick up in upcoming weeks, because Athletic team beat writer Saad Yousef predicted that Blue would finish the 2025 season as Dallas' lead running back, implying that Blue will displace all of Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders and seventh-round pick rookie Phil Mafah. More specifically, Yousef predicted Blue will lead Dallas in rushing production as a rookie.

How does Jaydon Blue stack up against the rest of the NFL? Visit our fantasy football rankings for a list of the top players for the remainder of the season.

SKILL SET

Blue (5-9, 197) started some games at Texas but never actually established himself as starter in three seasons. This doesn't mean Blue's NFL projection is necessarily worse than the players he played behind – James Cook played behind Zamir White at Georgia, of course – but the fact is Blue is inexperienced from scrimmage relative to most drafted running backs.

Despite Texas giving him every opportunity to seize the starting role in 2024, a combination of nicks and bruises plus the emergence of Quintrevion Wisner relegated Blue to the RB2 role by the season's mid point. If fellow Longhorns running back CJ Baxter had been available he too likely would have played ahead of Blue, meaning Blue only narrowly avoided ending up the RB3 for Texas last year as a junior. 

Blue finished his Texas career with 1,161 yards and 11 touchdowns on 214 carries, good for a rushing average of 5.4 yards per carry at a 5.1 percent touchdown rate. The volume is low, and the efficiency doesn't do anything to offset that. For some perspective, former Texas teammate Roschon Johnson finished his Texas career with a rushing average of 5.6 yards per carry with a 5.9 percent touchdown rate.

By NFL standards Blue objectively was not a productive runner at the college football level. Even NFL backups are expected to produce better, so for Blue to be Dallas' lead rusher as Yousef predicted would require a fairly aggressive disregard for precedent.

To go back to the Cook-White example from earlier – Cook might not have had much volume from scrimmage at Georgia, but on a per-touch basis he was extremely productive. Cook finished his Georgia career with a rushing average of 6.5 yards per carry at a 6.1 percent touchdown rate, and over more carries (230) than Blue (214) to boot. Not just that – Cook had 113 carries as a senior to 160 for White, meaning the usage gap between White and Cook was much smaller than that between Blue (134 carries in 2024) and Wisner (226 carries).

Perhaps Cook might be the most proximate comparison for Blue's talents and fantasy projection, but that still doesn't make it an accurate comparison. Indeed, if Blue needs the Cook model to come through then the model likely is not viable. If Blue is to succeed at the NFL level, be it in general or as a fantasy asset specifically, he needs to succeed in a way that doesn't resemble Cook's journey.

Limited as Blue might be in terms of pure running, he might have a viable calling card in his pass-catching ability. Although his efficiency was poor (68.9 percent catch rate, 6.0 YPT), Blue showed a high per-snap target rate in 2024, drawing 61 targets on under 500 snaps from scrimmage. Blue has small hands (second percentile, according to Mockdraftable) and short arms (18th percentile), so he presents an exceedingly poor catch radius, but Blue seems to have some innate ability to run routes out of the backfield and create separation downfield.

The evidence is clear that Blue is likely not a starter-caliber runner but might offer more pass-catching upside than most running backs.

ATHLETICISM

Blue's speed was always his main selling point as a prospect, and it is indeed obvious to see that Blue has easy safety-splitting speed. His 4.38-second combine 40 was a slight disappointment if anything, because the hope was that Blue would be even faster. Still, Blue is clearly very fast and one of the fastest running backs in the NFL. 

It's not clear how much other functional athleticism Blue offers aside from the straight-line speed, however. Blue definitely has some juke ability to him and his speed is the explosive variety rather than build-up speed, but his balance is sketchy at best and Blue runs very high despite his short frame. Blue runs with very little anchor – he runs with too much of his weight in his shoulders and not enough in his feet.

This is all to say that Blue's speed is linear, and he doesn't offer the change-of-direction ability that someone might expect of a runner so fast. If Blue tried to stop and cut multiple times in a single play he'd be liable to lose his footing. Look at RJ Harvey for a sharp contrast to this – Harvey shows an unusual ability to transition from gait to anchor, easily maintaining his balance while executing changes in his direction.

As much as his balance, anchor and change of direction might be lacking, Blue demonstrates a second athletic strength in his ball skills as a receiver. Perhaps Blue's small hands and lack of reach will limit his catch radius, but not many running backs can track the ball downfield at the high speeds Blue can. If a defense leaves a linebacker on Blue in single coverage it could come at a high cost.

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COMPARISON AND 2025 PROJECTION

Perhaps Yousef's prediction turns out true, but if Blue is the leading rusher for Dallas in 2025 it would probably mean something went wrong. No matter how poorly Williams or Sanders play, they project as better runners than Blue. Even Mafah might project as a better pure runner. 

If Blue is the leading runner out of that group then it's a near certainty at least one was injured for most of the year, but even Williams, Sanders, and Mafah are all out of the picture you have to worry about any given street free agent or practice squad pickup also outplaying Blue as a pure runner. Blue can't really run power concepts and is a fumbling liability – anything more than eight or so carries borders on overwork for a player with Blue's traits, both because he can't execute the breadth of play designs required to organically accumulate volume and because his fumble rate (six on his last 255 touches) is more likely to flare up the more touches you give him.

Blue's more realistic route to influence in the Dallas offense is by pushing the issue as a pass catcher. Even after acquiring George Pickens by trade, Dallas does not have much depth among its pass catchers. Pickens, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson are locked into the top three, but if Blue shows well as a pass catcher he could outrank WR3 Jalen Tolbert in the target rotation. If Blue can draw upwards of 70 targets then in PPR he could encroach upon flex viability in most formats.

Now, if Yousef had predicted that Blue would be the leading overall producer from scrimmage among the Dallas running backs then that projection would be easier to see. Williams, Sanders and Mafah all have their obvious limitations, and only Williams can catch a pass. There's a way for Blue to be productive enough as a receiver to rank first for production from scrimmage even if Williams or whoever else technically outranks Blue as a rusher.

COMPARISON: Blue's best-case projection is probably something like a less powerful Nyheim Hines who fumbles more often and is less trustworthy in blitz pickup. It's totally possible that Dallas' backfield is bad enough that even a fumble-prone version of Hines would have led the backfield in fantasy production, but the idea of Blue casting aside qualified competition is probably unfair for his rookie year. If it goes work for Blue he'll need to do it primarily with receiving production.

2025 PROJECTION AND ADP: Blue has a strong chance to lead the Dallas running backs in receiving production in 2025 but likely is not a realistic candidate to lead the Dallas backfield in rushing production. Even Blue's pass-catching production is far from a lock – Williams will likely be Dallas' most trusted pass-blocking running back to a considerable degree, and Blue doesn't project well in the same capacity. Williams is likely the best bet to lead Dallas in rushing yardage in 2025.

With all of that said, Blue's solid pass-catching projection and obvious big-play ability could make him a useful best ball pick at the right price. At his current ADP (131.2) Blue goes just after Rhamondre Stevenson (130.1) and just before the likes of Tyjae Spears (137.4), Trey Benson (140.3), Isaac Guerendo (143.3), Rachaad White (144.2), Ray Davis (147.3), Tyler Allgeier (152.6) and Austin Ekeler (159.7).

To me, Blue is definitely worth drafting but not earlier than most of those names. Stevenson will start for a much improved New England offense and has proven workhorse upside. Benson, Guerendo, Davis and Allgeier can all scale up to three-down workhorses if the high-usage starter ahead of them were to miss time. Ekeler, meanwhile, is basically a proven version of what Blue only theoretically might be. Other than diversification purposes, it's not obvious why Blue would be a better selection than Ekeler at more than two rounds more expensive.