I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.
Unless otherwise noted, references to "fantasy points" are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Bo Nix (at WAS) — 47% started
Start Over — Jared Goff (vs. GB), Baker Mayfield (vs. ARZ)
A bye week may help the Commanders' defense some, but they can't really blame injuries for the horrible performances throughout October and November. They also won't have the rest advantage, with Denver also coming out of a bye and likely to continue chucking the ball around in the absence of J.K. Dobbins (foot). Nix hasn't been especially efficient this year, but he's averaging 35.2 pass attempts and 4.5 rushes
- Other Good Matchups: Patrick Mahomes (at DAL), Lamar Jackson (vs. CIN), Justin Herbert (vs. LV)
Running Backs 👍
Kenneth Walker (vs. MIN) — 76% started
Start Over — Rico Dowdle (vs. LAR), Jaylen Warren (vs. BUF), D'Andre Swift (at PHI)
Walker played a season-high 67 percent of snaps last week, taking 14 of Seattle's 20 RB opportunities (70%) in a game where the team ran just 47 plays. A similar share of the workload in a different type of contest might've yielded 20 touches — a number that's in play this week with the Seahawks favored by 11.5 over a reeling Vikings team that just gave up 26.5 PPR points to Emanuel Wilson.
- RJ Harvey (at WAS) — 51% started
Start Over — David Montgomery (vs. GB), Aaron Jones (at SEA), Woody Marks (at IND)
Harvey finished with just 50 scoreless yards on 14 touches in the first game after J.K. Dobbins suffered a foot injury, but that was against a Kansas City defense ranked in the top 10 for fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs for a third straight year. A matchup with the Commanders should yield double-digit PPR points if Harvey plays more than half of the snaps again (he took 63% in Week 11).
- Other Good Matchups: Derrick Henry & Keaton Mitchell (vs. CIN), Kyren Williams & Blake Corum (at CAR), Breece Hall (vs. ATL), TreVeyon Henderson (vs. NYG), Travis Etienne & Bhayshul Tuten (at TEN), RJ Harvey (at WAS)
Wide Receivers 👍
Khalil Shakir (at PIT) — 48% started
Start Over — Rome Odunze (at PHI), Jameson Williams (vs. GB), DK Metcalf (vs. BUF)
With TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) still not practicing, Shakir may once again be the only reliable option for Josh Allen, who has sent 7.4 targets per game to his slot receiver since a Week 7 bye. Averaging 59.2 yards and 12.9 PPR points in that stretch, Shakir figures to keep going strong against a Pittsburgh defense that's allowing the second-most yards per game (95.2) to pass catchers aligned in the slot.
Christian Watson (at DET) — 27% started
Start Over — DJ Moore (at PHI), Romeo Doubs (at DET), Jauan Jennings (at CLE)
Watson is my Thanksgiving Day special, though I imagine I'm far from the only fantasy analyst touting him this week. He's facing a Detroit defense that's mostly been solid this year, but with tendencies that work in Watson's favor, namely the second-highest rate of using single-high coverages (66.2%). The Lions used single-high looks on 78.3% of snaps back in Week 1 against Green Bay, which is the 10th-highest rate for any team in any game this year.
The number should drop some now that Watson's available, but Detroit still figures to use single-high far more often than a typical opponent. Watson is averaging 3.2 yards per route run with a 20.3% target rate against single-high looks this year, compared to a measly 0.8 YPRR and 15.2% target rate versus two-high coverages.
- Other Good Matchups: Rashee Rice & Xavier Worthy (at DAL); Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins & Kayshon Boutte (vs. NYG); Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston & Keenan Allen (vs. LV); Darnell Mooney (at NYJ); Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers & Parker Washington (at TEN); Courtland Sutton & Troy Franklin (at WAS)
Tight Ends 👍
Juwan Johnson (at MIA) — 46% started
Start Over — Kyle Pitts (at NYJ), Theo Johnson (at NE), Hunter Henry (vs. NYG)
Johnson hasn't reached 20 PPR points in a game this year, but he's hit double digits in eight of 11, including each of the past five. His slump beforehand (Weeks 4-6) coincided with a boost in targets for Alvin Kamara, who is now likely to miss time with an MCL sprain. Johnson should get at least a handful of targets this Sunday against a Miami defense ranked 30th in PPR points (17.0 per game) and YPT (8.7) allowed to tight ends.
- Other Good Matchups: Mark Andrews & Isaiah Likely (vs. CIN), Colby Parkinson (at CAR)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB Trevor Lawrence (at TEN)
RB Kenneth Gainwell (vs. BUF)
RB Devin Neal (at MIA)
RB Sean Tucker (vs. ARZ)
RB Tyler Allgeier (at NYJ)
WR Christian Watson (at DET)
WR Parker Washington (at TEN)
WR Alec Pierce (vs. HOU)
WR Darius Slayton (at NE)
TE Theo Johnson (at NE)
K Wil Lutz (at WAS)
D/ST Jaguars (at TEN)
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)
QB Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NO)
RB Tyjae Spears (vs. JAX)
WR Chimere Dike (vs. JAX)
WR Jayden Higgins (at IND)
WR John Metchie (vs. ATL)
WR Rashod Bateman (vs. CIN)
WR Andrei Iosivas (at BAL)
WR Malik Washington (vs. NO)
WR Kayshon Boutte (vs. NYG)
WR Tez Johnson (vs. ARZ)
TE Harold Fannin (vs. SF)
TE Brenton Strange (at TEN)
TE Mason Taylor (vs. ATL)
TE Darren Waller (vs. NO) - if activated from IR
K Andy Borregales (vs. NYG)
D/ST 49ers (at CLE)
For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)
QB Marcus Mariota (vs. DEN)
QB Cam Ward (vs. JAX)
RB Keaton Mitchell (vs. CIN)
RB Jaleel McLaughlin (at WAS)
WR Mack Hollins (vs. NYG)
WR Luther Burden (at PHI)
WR Dontayvion Wicks (at DET)
WR Tyler Lockett (at LAC)
WR Jalen Coker (vs. LAR)
TE Mike Gesicki (at BAL)
TE Ross Dwelley (vs. GB)
TE Isaiah Likely (vs. CIN)
K Nick Folk (vs. ATL)
D/ST Dolphins (vs. NO)
D/ST Jets (vs. ATL)
