This article is part of our Fantasy Football Draft Strategy series.
This is the fourth piece in our pick-by-pick strategic breakdowns of how to approach a fantasy draft from any given draft slot. Check out the rest of the Draft Strategy series:
Over the years, there have been players at the top of the draft board who were so much better than the rest of the field it made picking at the end of the round a disadvantage. This year, many excellent options spill into the second round. You may not be at a significant disadvantage if you draw one of the late picks this year.
There are other distinct advantages and disadvantages when picking on the ends of the draft. An advantage is that you can use each pair of picks to pre-emptively attack positional roster needs. Also, you can often get ahead of a positional run by starting those runs. In those situations, you can often target the top players in a positional tier. The main disadvantage is that there are many players you will never have access to unless you significantly reach for them. If we learn one thing from ADP, it's that there are players who tend to go in the middle parts of certain rounds.
In this guide, I list players at each position who will often be available when each pair of picks at the "turn" arrives. Every draft is different, so pay close attention to the flow of the draft and be ready to pivot when needed. If
This is the fourth piece in our pick-by-pick strategic breakdowns of how to approach a fantasy draft from any given draft slot. Check out the rest of the Draft Strategy series:
Over the years, there have been players at the top of the draft board who were so much better than the rest of the field it made picking at the end of the round a disadvantage. This year, many excellent options spill into the second round. You may not be at a significant disadvantage if you draw one of the late picks this year.
There are other distinct advantages and disadvantages when picking on the ends of the draft. An advantage is that you can use each pair of picks to pre-emptively attack positional roster needs. Also, you can often get ahead of a positional run by starting those runs. In those situations, you can often target the top players in a positional tier. The main disadvantage is that there are many players you will never have access to unless you significantly reach for them. If we learn one thing from ADP, it's that there are players who tend to go in the middle parts of certain rounds.
In this guide, I list players at each position who will often be available when each pair of picks at the "turn" arrives. Every draft is different, so pay close attention to the flow of the draft and be ready to pivot when needed. If there is a player you have to get be aggressive and take him as early as you need to. It's your draft. Have fun while also trying to dominate.
1st/2nd Round Turn
I recommend going with any combination of running back/wide receiver with these picks. My preference is grabbing a pair of wideouts because I feel there is a stronger likelihood of my top picks staying healthy. That said, for those who feel there is a running back who will anchor your team (my choice would be Saquon Barkley) you may choose to go running back/wide receiver and use the Hero RB approach. In that scenario, spending later picks on backs to try and cobble together an RB2 makes sense. Finally, there will be other fantasy managers who love that old-school RB-RB build. Injuries are always a concern, but if injury fortune is on your side, you could be building a juggernaut.
Quarterback
Key options likely available: Unlike in 2023, when quarterbacks are starting to go off the board in the first and second rounds, this year is different. In most drafts, the top quarterbacks aren't selected until the late second or early third rounds. I do not recommend taking a signal-caller here.
Running Back
Key options likely available: Saquon Barkley is often the last running back of this group selected. However, the running back has been mostly healthy the last three seasons. In addition, his move from the Giants to the Eagles may provide the best situation Barkley has been in during his career. Jonathan Taylor has missed 13 games over the last two seasons, although most of those absences were due to an ankle injury that spanned two seasons. Taylor will be running behind a strong offensive line while having the mobile Anthony Richardson help create added rushing lanes. Jahmyr Gibbs has the looks of an emerging star. That said, of the early running backs being selected, Gibbs is likely to see the fewest snaps. Look for the Lions to continue giving David Montgomery significant work, including a good portion of the red-zone work. Gibbs will have to be very efficient to earn his draft cost.
Wide Receiver
Key options likely available: A.J. Brown was on pace for almost 2,000 yards through Week 8 last year. Afterward, the coaching staff was unable to find answers against defenses that focused on slowing Brown. With Kellen Moore running the offense, don't be surprised to see Brown flirt with 1,500 yards. Puka Nacua set the rookie receiving record for yardage last season (1,486). To repeat that success Nacua will likely need Cooper Kupp to underperform again and the oft-injured Matthew Stafford to stay healthy. Garrett Wilson may finally have competent (or better) quarterback play. Wilson has the look of a superstar. The receiver has an excellent chance of becoming one of the elite receivers this season. Arthur Smith and bad quarterback play held Drake London down. He got massive upgrades in coaching and newly-signed Kirk Cousins. A leap into the elite tier of wide receivers is possible.
Tight End
Key options likely available: The top tight ends had a massive advantage over the field in 2020-2022. As a result, we often saw Travis Kelce drafted in this range. Last year, the top six tight ends were separated by roughly 30 PPR points. The expectation is that this continues. Since the massive advantage of the top tight ends seems gone, I don't recommend taking one here.
3rd/4th Round Turn
We are playing chess here. It is a long time before these turn picks come back. Not only do we want to look back to the roster construction that began with the first two picks, but we also need to consider which direction to go in the picks well beyond these choices. If you are willing to wait on quarterback and tight end, continue to pound wide receiver and running back. I do not like the opportunity cost of going quarterback or tight end here. Ideally, I come out with three receivers and one running back. There is also nothing wrong with having two of each. In a perfect world, I love the receivers often on the board here. When that occurs, double-tapping the position makes sense. Again, there is no wrong answer here.
Quarterback
Key options likely available: For those who wanted to wait until the top quarterback was off the board before attacking the position this may be your time. With Josh Allen likely gone, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes should be on the board. Again, drafting a passer this early comes at the cost of missing out on a higher tier of back or receiver. That said, Mahomes has new weapons (Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy) that may help him return to the elite tier. Obviously, Jalen Hurts' rushing ability gives him an incredible floor/ceiling combination.
Running Back
Key options likely available: James Cook had excellent season-long numbers last year. That said, in his last five games, Cook averaged 2.64 yards per carry. The Bills may rotate rookie Ray Davis often to keep Cook fresh. As a result, Cook's workload could be lessened from 2023. Joe Mixon averaged over 300 touches in the last three years. The veteran is now with Houston, where he should have plenty of room to operate in coach Bobby Slowik's 49ers' style offense.
Wide Receiver
Key options likely available: DJ Moore and Jaylen Waddle are competing for targets, but each has had one high-end fantasy season in the past two years. Michael Pittman has seen his targets increase in each season. After turning 156 targets into 1,152 yards last year, the Colts locked their alpha receiver up for three years. Even though Indianapolis has many weapons, look for Pittman to continue to be a target hog, which makes him a high-floor option. DK Metcalf may never recapture the 1,300 yards he posted in 2020. That said, the receiver is usually a lock for 1,000 yards with strong touchdown totals.
Tight End
Key options likely available: Mark Andrews missed more than two games for the first time in his career last season. The veteran averaged 54 yards per game, though he appeared to be eased into action until Week 4 while recovering from injury. Expect Andrews to remain Lamar Jackson's top receiver. Also, Jackson appeared to improve as a passer as his first year in a new offense progressed. Andrews has been the No. 1 overall tight end before. It would not be a shock if he did it again. Trey McBride has proven the ability to put up elite numbers. Just be careful. The Cardinals dealt with injuries to Hollywood Brown (now with the Chiefs) and Michael Wilson last season. As a result, McBride was often the de facto No. 1 option in the passing game. With Marvin Harrison and Wilson on the roster, McBride may no longer see the target share he enjoyed in 2023.
5th/6th Round Turn
Those who are unwilling to wait on quarterback and/or tight end may consider selecting one at this point. Take note of which players at those positions may fall to you in the later rounds when making that decision. Although I love the running back options at this point, each of the top options has possible age and/or injury concerns. However, some WRs have exceptional scoring floors with some upside potential. If your roster needs RBs or WRs, I recommend addressing those now.
Quarterback
Key options likely available: As we saw last year, Anthony Richardson has league-winning upside that is counterbalanced by potential durability concerns. Other fantasy managers may prefer to target Joe Burrow, who has one of the top wide receiver duos in the league. Burrow is also coming at a slight discount after an injury-plagued 2023.
Running Back
Key options likely available: Aaron Jones finished 2023 with five straight games with more than 100 scrimmage yards. Before missing six games last year, Jones had missed just four games in the previous four years. Jones should be the lead back in Minnesota, but those concerned with drafting a 29-year-old back may choose to pass. Speaking of 29-year-old running backs, James Conner is usually available. From Weeks 13-18 last year, Conner averaged over 23 PPR points per game. Of course, count on the veteran missing three-to-four games as he does most years. Rhamondre Stevenson has missed 10 games over the last three seasons, but he is capable of RB1 production when healthy. Also, the New England offense may be better than they were over the past two seasons, which could open up space for Stevenson.
Wide Receiver
Key options likely available: Amari Cooper and Christian Kirk are receivers who have played around a 1,200-yard pace over the past two seasons. Both should have excellent floor-to-ceiling combos. Finally, those who feel Jayden Daniels will be an excellent signal-caller should consider Terry McLaurin, who has always had a high floor but a limited ceiling. If Daniels is the answer, McLaurin could be unlocked.
Tight End
Key options likely available: Those willing to bet on Kyle Pitts reaching his potential because Arthur Smith no longer coaches the team may consider taking their chance at this point. George Kittle is almost certain to post strong numbers at the end of the season. That said, throughout most of the tight end's career, the week-to-week ride can be very volatile. If you are not happy with spending a premium pick on a player who is nearly impossible to predict every week, you may choose to pass on Kittle.
7th/8th Round Turn
If you have passed on quarterback, but do not want to punt the position, this may be the best time to act. In addition, Jake Ferguson is one of the last tight ends I trust in my tier of solid starters. Time will run out soon to get a clear top-10 option. For those who already grabbed players at either position, either look at Raheem Mostert for running back depth or consider one of the wide receiver options.
Quarterback
Key options likely available: Kyler Murray is a year removed from an ACL injury, which could help him be a big producer on the ground. He also has a potentially strong trio of weapons in Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. Jordan Love is one of the last available options for those looking for a consensus top-10 quarterback. Love will be in his second year as the Green Bay starter with an exciting set of young weapons to throw the ball to.
Running Back
Key options likely available: Tony Pollard is expected to share the Titans' backfield with Tyjae Spears. However, those who believe Pollard was less effective than expected in the past due to a 2022 foot injury may get a massive value. Raheem Mostert is 32 but he has averaged over 1,110 scrimmage yards in his two seasons with the Dolphins. Jonathon Brooks was selected with the No. 46 overall pick in this year's draft. That said, the rookie is working his way back from a November ACL injury. Should the Panthers' new ball carrier get up to speed quickly, Chuba Hubbard is his main competition. As a result, Brooks could easily lead the Carolina backfield.
Wide Receiver
Key options likely available: DeAndre Hopkins is 32 but coming off a season with 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns. The veteran will likely share targets with newly-acquired Calvin Ridley. Regardless, Hopkins should still command high target volume in a possession-plus role. Diontae Johnson should be an excellent high-floor option. Very few WRs get open as quickly as Johnson does. As we saw last year, Bryce Young is at his best when getting the ball out quickly. Look for Johnson to flirt with 90 receptions. Jaxon Smith-Njigba played behind Tyler Lockett last year. Despite Lockett's solid yardage total, the veteran appeared to be in decline. With new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb expected to focus on 3-WR sets, Smith-Njigba could break out.
Tight End
Key options likely available: Jake Ferguson had a breakout season in 2023. The Dallas tight end could emerge as the second option in a likely pass-heavy attack. Ferguson has upside potential that could help him become a major value. David Njoku had great numbers in 2023. However, the tight end was incredible with Joe Flacco. Njoku was far less impressive playing with any quarterback not named Joe Flacco last season.
9th/10th Round Turn
This is a good opportunity to pad running back and/or wide receiver depth. If looking for a wideout, either take a flier on former first-round pick Jameson Williams and/or the excellent scoring floor of Courtland Sutton.
Quarterback
Key options likely available: Jared Goff has been a strong fantasy option for the past two seasons. However, he has had vast splits at home versus on the road. That often makes him a streaming option. It should be noted many of Goff's road games are in domes this year. Those who believe Goff's issues relate more to indoor versus outdoor games may value him more. Jayden Daniels may be an excellent rushing quarterback. Should that happen, the rookie could smash his ADP. That said, don't forget Daniels has a very slight build and did not avoid many hits in college. Durability may be an issue should that continue in the NFL.
Running Back
Key options likely available: Tyjae Spears was excellent as a rookie. If Tony Pollard plays at the same level he did in Dallas last season, Spears could steal the lead role. However, going into August, it appears Spears will be in a timeshare. Brian Robinson is expected to be the early-down and goal-line leader for the Washington Commanders. Otherwise, Robinson will likely lose passing-down work to Austin Ekeler. With Washington expected to struggle this season, Robinson's role may not provide enough volume to be a major fantasy factor. Ezekiel Elliott has been in decline for the past couple of years. That said, he is a very good receiver and pass protector. Also, Elliott is an outstanding goal-line runner. He could return value if he is in those two roles this season.
Wide Receiver
Key options likely available: Jameson Williams has dealt with injuries and a suspension during his first two years with the Lions. Detroit has been praising the third-year player's progress throughout the offseason. As a former first-round pick with a favorable draft cost, Williams is risky but has potential upside in an excellent offense. Courtland Sutton has been a lock for 770-820 yards per season. Aside from last year, Sutton has had lower touchdown totals. That makes the receiver a high-floor option with a fair price. Romeo Doubs scored touchdowns on over 13 percent of his receptions last year, which seems like an unsustainable number. Otherwise, in a crowded receiver room, Doubs failed to reach 700 yards despite being targeted 96 times last year.
Tight End
Key options likely available: Dalton Schultz has been targeted at least 87 times in four straight years. However, if the Texans focus the passing attack on their three excellent wide receivers, Schultz could see a significant drop in opportunity.
11th/12th Round Turn
For those who drafted a risky QB1, securing a backup here is not a terrible idea. If you punted tight end or require a second one for depth look to Luke Musgrave if he is available. He has the potential to be very useful. Otherwise, I love the receivers often on the board here. Loading up on pass-catchers is a good idea.
Quarterback
Key options likely available: Kirk Cousins is my favorite late-round quarterback this year. The Achilles' injury shouldn't be an issue for a pocket passer. Also, with Drake London and Kyle Pitts as the top options, Cousins could finish as a top-12 quarterback. Matthew Stafford is 36 years old and has reached 30 touchdown passes once since 2015. Getting QB2 production is likely. However, the veteran is nearly a zero as a rusher.
Running Back
Key options likely available: Zach Charbonnet was not impressive in games he took over for Kenneth Walker last year. Still, Walker hasn't always been durable. That gives Charbonnet value aside from being a change-of-pace player. Chuba Hubbard was inefficient but an excellent fantasy producer when pressed into a lead role last year. If Jonathon Brooks struggles in his return from a November ACL tear, Hubbard could again see volume. However, if Brooks is a full go at any point, Hubbard is likely to become a change-of-pace back with limited fantasy value.
Wide Receiver
Key options likely available: Khalil Shakir is the cheapest of the top three Bills receivers. After posting at least 15.2 PPR points in the three games he had at least six targets, it's possible Shakir could emerge as the best pass-catcher in Buffalo. Jakobi Meyers had an impressive first season with the Raiders. However, on a team that expects to be run-heavy while having Davante Adams and Brock Bowers in the pass-catching rotation, consistency may be tough for Meyers. Jerry Jeudy is expected to step into Elijah Moore's role from 2023. Moore was targeted 104 times but was terrible at gaining yards after the catch. Jeudy has had his share of issues in the NFL, but gaining yards after the catch is not one of them. For a cheap price, Jeudy may be worth drafting. Joshua Palmer was on a 1,000-yard pace when healthy last year. Look for the receiver to be a starter on the outside. If the Chargers' defense struggles and the team needs to pass more than many anticipate, Palmer could be a great value.
Tight End
Key options likely available: Luke Musgrave was injured when the Green Bay offense took off in the second half of the season. Look for the tight end to be the lead receiving tight end. Although the targets may not be consistent from week to week, Musgrave could challenge to be a top-12 tight end.
13th/14th Round Turn
As we near the end, adding depth where needed is the primary goal. Assess your roster then fill positional needs. If you're in a pinch at tight end, see if Hunter Henry is available.
Quarterback
Key options likely available: Baker Mayfield had a breakthrough season with the Bucs last year. The good news is Mayfield has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to throw the ball to. Conversely, Mayfield will have a new coach (Liam Coen) running the offense, but he has a history of inconsistency. Deshaun Watson has not been a good passer since joining the Browns. However, he has been on a 400-yard rushing pace during that time. Any quarterback who can run has fantasy value.
Running Back
Key options likely available: Jaleel McLaughlin has been hyped by many as a breakout player. Yes, the running back has proven to be an explosive player. That said, coach Sean Payton only gave McLaughlin more than six carries once after the team's Week 9 bye. Smaller backs are often at their best when not overused. That may be why McLaughlin saw limited work, which makes us wonder if that will continue. Kimani Vidal would need to overtake 29-year-old Gus Edwards and oft-injured J.K. Dobbins to see a substantial role in the Chargers' offense. The rookie showed excellent traits during the NFL Combine. In a muddy backfield, drafting the cheapest option often makes sense.
Wide Receiver
Key options likely available: Dontayvion Wicks was an excellent player as a rookie. The problem is Wicks projects to be the No. 4 WR behind three excellent players in Green Bay. If any of those players miss time, Wicks could be an instant fantasy starter. That makes it worth using a pick on him late. DeMario Douglas is likely the Patriots' best receiver. The problem is he is likely a 'slot only' option. Still, the talent and production we saw last year can be built upon. That makes the second-year player someone to consider. Darnell Mooney was in a terrible Chicago offense. The receiver does have a 1,000-yard season on his resume, though his targets were very high that year. With Kirk Cousins as his quarterback and Drake London drawing alpha coverage, Mooney's speed could result in a bounce-back season. Ja'Lynn Polk was drafted in the second round by the Patriots. Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye are likely big upgrades at quarterback for New England. If Polk clicks as a possession-plus receiver he could be worth selecting.
Tight End
Key options likely available: Hunter Henry was likely a victim of the terrible offenses the Patriots had the past two seasons. The tight end will now catch passes from either Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett. Don't be surprised if Henry challenges to be a top-15 tight end.
Deeper-League Options
Quarterback
Key options likely available: Geno Smith regressed a bit last year after having a career year in 2022. Now, Smith will play under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who is expected to spread out the receivers. With DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett, Smith may be a strong QB2. Will Levis had a great first game as a rookie but was not good the rest of the way. However, the Titans brought in coach Brian Callahan while adding Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to the receiver group. Tennessee also spent a first-round pick to address their offensive line. The second-year quarterback appears to have a much-improved situation in 2024.
Running Back
Key options likely available: Ray Davis is one of my favorite late-round picks. James Cook averaged 2.64 yards per carry in his last five games. It seems the Bills drafted Davis to be their early-down grinder. Davis could have flex value while also sharing goal-line work with Josh Allen. Tyrone Tracy was a converted college receiver. The rookie may earn passing-down work. In that scenario, there would be PPR value. Bucky Irving joins Rachaad White in the Tampa Bay backfield. If the Buccaneers don't want to give White another 336 touches, Irving could see enough work to function as a flex option.
Wide Receiver
Key options likely available: Jermaine Burton is a speed receiver who is now on the Bengals. If the rookie can win the slot role he could be an excellent fit with Joe Burrow. Michael Wilson quietly had a solid rookie season. With Marvin Harrison Jr. expected to see heavy coverage, Wilson could see a substantial role in the Arizona offense. Wan'Dale Robinson was recovering from a 2022 ACL injury last year. After the Week 13 bye, Robinson had three excellent games to close out the season. The receiver could see a lot of targets playing in the slot. Robinson also has excellent run-after-the-catch skills.
Tight End
Key options likely available: Noah Fant was in a three-way timeshare at tight end the last two seasons in Seattle. Now that Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson are gone, Fant should top the depth chart. After seeing 43 targets last year, 70-80 targets are possible, which could help Fant produce TE2 numbers. The last time Mike Gesicki was in a functional offense was in 2021 when he posted 780 yards. Now with Joe Burrow, the 28-year-old may be weaponized in the middle of the field. For little risk, there is potential for significant reward.
