Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Balancing RB Picks and Early QB Risks

RotoWire put together the Fantasy Draft Symposium last week as a means to kick off draft season in house, flying in a handful of our top experts to compete in a number of fantasy formats over  two days.

This article will expand upon the results of the RotoWire 12-team full-point PPR standard draft, complete with the prototypical kicker and defense. 

Below is the full draft board (click here to view full-screen on Sleeper).

Much like the 14-team superflex/TE-premium draft I recapped earlier this week, I think there are a bunch of interesting takeaways worth noting.

For the latest rankings and projections, check out our RotoWire rankings page.

One Two Buckle the RB Shoe

In the Year 2025, it's a bit unorthodox to see a roster start out RB-RB. It's perhaps a bit more surprising that a quarter of the league opted to go that direction, and if you wanted to expand to multiple running backs through three rounds, we saw nearly half the field load up at the position.

I could make a joke that two of the eldest statesman at the draft did end up going double RB to start, but I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes more common place as we enter draft season for a lot of folks.

There's undeniably a safety net when it comes to effectively guaranteeing upper-level production at a notoriously volatile position, and some of the obvious examples atop the draft also have easily discernible handcuffs to protect the significant draft capital. Team 10 is probably the perfect execution of this strategy because even if both Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor run into their floor projections, it's still a pair of backs who should be the primary red-zone focus for their teams and can still have week-winning upside given their explosive capabilities.

The only part I get a bit queasy about is what's left of WR3 choices with this roster build, and to dive further into this example, what then constitutes a manager's choice for depth wideouts (WR4 and WR5). Inherently every person, expert or novice, will strive to find the gems or values later in the draft. Data supports what feels obvious and intuitive; the goal is to find a player who has an obvious path for significant playing time, but is currently blocked by other circumstances. 

But inevitably there becomes a seemingly primal desire to couple a "safe" wide receiver choice with a then aggressive depth dice roll, and what ends up happening is the ceiling of the entire roster becomes a bit more compromised. I think George Pickens should thrive in the Cowboys' offense, but ignoring some of his mercurial tendencies, it's still a talented WR who has not shown the capability of elevating to a true No. 1 wide receiver, and he'll split time with an obvious alpha in that offense. Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs should be the top targets in their offense, but there's are significant questions about how competent the offense will be and what the aging veterans are capable of achieving in adverse circumstances.

Alan Seslowsky's team (Team 2) is probably the best example of going against the grain that I mentioned. It's fair to speculate on one of Jaylen Waddle and Rome Odunze elevating far above their current ADP. But that's still a risky bet, and one that would make me uncomfortable if I wanted to employ the double RB strategy to start.

Evaluating Risks and Rewards of Early Quarterback Picks

I've done a number of expert mock drafts in my career. Inevitably, all of the experts will wait to draft a quarterback, in effect poisoning the sample for the reader. It doesn't matter what platform you draft on, the ADPs for some of the highly drafted quarterbacks will see at least four, if not five, names come off the board within the first five rounds and too often expert mock drafts don't end up actually helping the consumer. I appreciate that my colleagues did a good job representing what I think will be "real" ADP values of the QB position and the consequence of drafting them early.

By default, I'm pretty passive in nature. I likely will wait at quarterback in most of my redraft leagues, especially in NFFC formats, which reward six points per passing touchdown, where the value between some of the top rushing threats and QB12-20 gets smoothed out even more. There's absolutely a range, however, where you need to consider the league-winning upside some of these quarterbacks present. I say that knowing full well none of the top-5 most rostered quarterbacks in Yahoo championship-winning fantasy leagues were drafted within the top 10 of the position last year.

I think there's a consequential difference between Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and ... whatever really comes after that at the other positions. WR2s like Tee Higgins and Garrett Wilson? Yeah, I think the trio of quarterbacks will be more of a week-to-week difference maker. Same goes for the RBs who normally go in that range like Chase Brown or James Cook. But you also need to factor in the opportunity cost that comes with missing out on the Higgins or Browns of the world.

Would a combo of Tee Higgins in Round 3 and Bo Nix in Round 8 look better than a team with Lamar Jackson and Deebo Samuel? Perhaps I'm just far lower on Samuel than some of my colleagues, but I'd rather take the Higgins/Nix combo. Same thing for Chase Brown and Patrick Mahomes as opposed to Josh Allen and Tyrone Tracy. In every one of the highly drafted QB instances, it's really easy to see that a tier drop at one of the other positions occurred, and I assume there was a shrug of the shoulders and a "might as well" uttered before the QB selection. But with the benefit of hindsight and the visual aspect of the board above, this should be something you as the soon-to-be drafter grapples with before the question presents itself with the clock ticking and the ADP cartoonishly singing its siren song.

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