This article is part of our Fantasy Football Draft Strategy series.
Keep in mind that all these recommendations are relative to ADP/rankings. I'll list some superstars and some late-round picks, naming the player on every team who I'm most enthusiastic about drafting this year.
QB Kyler Murray
This is one of my favorite offenses to target, with Murray, RB James Conner, WR Greg Dortch and TE Trey McBride all making frequent appearances on my best ball teams. Murray just turned 27 and now gets his first chance to play a full season without Kliff Kingsbury as his coach.
TE Kyle Pitts
Pitts had 119 and 163 yards in the first two games after his 21st birthday and then another 100-yard game toward the end of his rookie season. He hasn't reached triple digits since, but it probably has more to do with the coaches, quarterbacks and injuries he was stuck with than any personal shortcomings in terms of talent or work ethic. Now he seems to have all those surrounding circumstances working in his favor rather than going against him.
QB Jackson slimmed down to around 200 pounds this offseason, hoping to regain the elite speed he had earlier in his career. He was still a highly effective runner while carrying extra weight, but his new/old physique creates potential for a return to 1,000 rushing yards — something he did in both 2019 and 2020. While it also means he'll need to be a bit
Keep in mind that all these recommendations are relative to ADP/rankings. I'll list some superstars and some late-round picks, naming the player on every team who I'm most enthusiastic about drafting this year.
QB Kyler Murray
This is one of my favorite offenses to target, with Murray, RB James Conner, WR Greg Dortch and TE Trey McBride all making frequent appearances on my best ball teams. Murray just turned 27 and now gets his first chance to play a full season without Kliff Kingsbury as his coach.
TE Kyle Pitts
Pitts had 119 and 163 yards in the first two games after his 21st birthday and then another 100-yard game toward the end of his rookie season. He hasn't reached triple digits since, but it probably has more to do with the coaches, quarterbacks and injuries he was stuck with than any personal shortcomings in terms of talent or work ethic. Now he seems to have all those surrounding circumstances working in his favor rather than going against him.
Jackson slimmed down to around 200 pounds this offseason, hoping to regain the elite speed he had earlier in his career. He was still a highly effective runner while carrying extra weight, but his new/old physique creates potential for a return to 1,000 rushing yards — something he did in both 2019 and 2020. While it also means he'll need to be a bit more careful about taking hits, he's now better equipped to dodge the big blows.
WR Samuel's ADP varies wildly from platform to platform; he tends to go around the eighth round on best-ball sites but closer to Round 12 or 13 on ESPN. The good news this offseason was four-fold. First, he got out of Washington. Second, he joined forces with Josh Allen. Third, the Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Fourth, the Bills still have offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who held the same job in Carolina back in 2020 when Samuel had 851 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards. Samuel isn't a standout as a pure receiver, but his speed and versatility combined with favorable team context create a fun path to WR3 fantasy value.
WR Most people, including me, left Mingo for dead after a miserable rookie season with 418 yards on 85 targets. The new coaching staff in Carolina doesn't seem to agree, keeping Mingo with the first-team offense all summer ahead of first-round rookie Xavier Legette and 2021 second-rounder Terrace Marshall. I'm not saying Mingo should be drafted in 12-team, 15-round formats — his ADP remains in the 200s — but he's a worthwhile end-game pick for deeper leagues.
WR Rome Odunze
Odunze has one of the cleaner prospect profiles you'll ever see, but his Year 1 value has become a divisive subject thanks to DJ Moore and Keenan Allen inhabiting the same offense. There's also the variable of a rookie quarterback, though Caleb Williams is a bit like Odunze in being a lower-variance prospect than nearly any other recent rookie at his position. In any case, Odunze might quickly prove good enough to put Moore and Allen well south of their usual target shares, potentially giving the Bears three wide receivers that are startable in fantasy. That said, the ceiling scenario for the rookie entails Moore or Allen missing significant time.
WR Tee Higgins
There's a lot to like in Cincinnati, including no-longer-a-sleeper Chase Brown and potential-overall-WR1 Ja'Marr Chase. The favorite value, however, would be Higgins, who is going about a round and a half later than he went last year even though there's been no report of his 2023 injury troubles carrying over to summer 2024.
WR Amari Cooper
The late Flacco surge gave Cooper his career high for yardage last year, but unlike the other Cleveland pass catchers, he also had good numbers with Deshaun Watson, averaging 79.5 yards per game before the QB's season-ending injury. It was the games with P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center that held Cooper back, not any lack of connection with Watson.
RB While obviously not what he once was, Elliott is the only Dallas running back with the necessary skills (receiving, blocking, tough runnings) to take on a true lead-back workload. The mere possibility of such a role in a likely top-10 offense makes Elliott a worthy pick at his typical ADP in the Round 10 or later.
RB Reports on the Denver backfield have been chaotic this spring and summer, with Williams either a candidate to be released or have a huge breakout season depending on which beat writer is tweeting. Coach Sean Payton, on the other hand, has been consistently positive, including praise at the beginning of camp when Williams showed off a slimmed-down physique and superior quickness. There seem to be four RBs competing for snaps in Denver, but Williams is the only one of the bunch with potential to combine a high volume of carries with steady targets. I also like Jaleel McLaughlin, but he's an undersized RB who seems unlikely to ever break free of committees even if he proves himself as the best player in this backfield.
WR The Lions offense is full of safe, reliable fantasy commodities... and then there's Williams, the 2022 12th overall pick who has only 395 receiving yards through 18 regular-season games. He's a breakout candidate all the same, after scoring two TDs in the NFC Championship Game and then getting glowing praise from teammates and coaches this spring/summer. It helps that Williams is 23 years old and has the dual excuse of a 2021 ACL tear and 2023 gambling suspension to blame for his lack of production to date. It's not that he's been bad in the NFL; it's more that he just hasn't played much and spent a lot of his snaps either running clear-out routes or blocking. He'll get more chances all over the field this year.
RB Josh Jacobs
Jacobs was up and down throughout his five years with the Raiders, in part because he had subpar coaches and teammates for much of that time. Now he's in Green Bay, where the combination of talent and Matt LaFleur's scheme could lead to big numbers even if AJ Dillon and/or MarShawn Lloyd get a bunch of touches off the bench.
WR Nico Collins
Collins was better than both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell last season, dominating cornerbacks on deep routes and also doing a surprising amount of damage with catch-and-run plays from short passes. Concerns about a flat target distribution between the WRs are fair, but Collins is the one who can emerge above that and take an especially large share of the high-value looks deep downfield and in the end zone.
RB Taylor looked like himself down the stretch last year and now gets to play in an offense that will force opponents to constantly account for the QB rushing threat. All the better if Anthony Richardson is also a decent passer, in which case defenses may ultimately view Taylor as the lesser evil.
QB Lawrence played through an assortment of injuries last year and also had bad luck with an unusual number of near-misses on deep balls and throws into the end zone. He probably won't get much help from his coaches or blocking, but Lawrence's talent combined with a solid receiving corps could go a long way for fantasy.
RB Pacheco might be the only RB the Chiefs trust in important situations, which was the case during the playoffs last season when he topped 70 percent snap share in four straight games. The team's cumulative RB production has always been above average, including fifth in fantasy points last year, and now we have the possibility of one guy dominating those touches in KC for the first time since Kareem Hunt's prime.
TE Brock Bowers
The situation is as bad as it gets, with Bowers joining a team that has lousy QBs and plenty of other pass catchers. The good news is that his ADP fully accounts for that, allowing us to get a rare talent somewhere in the range of Rounds 8-11. Remember that Bowers was absolutely dominant after the catch at Georgia, perhaps making him less vulnerable to poor QB play than other pass catchers tend to be.
WR A top-40 pick isn't what people mean when they talk about the "next Puka Nacua," but McConkey might be the closest thing in terms of prospect profile. He consistently put up excellent per-route numbers in college, a la Nacua, but never got a ton of routes in any one season because of coaching/scheme or injuries (also like Nacua). It looks like either McConkey or Joshua Palmer will be Justin Herbert's top target in Year 1 without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
WR Cooper Kupp
Kupp has been healthy all spring and summer, after a hamstring injury and then sprained ankle seemed to limit him in 2024 even when he was healthy enough to play. Concerns about breaking down are reasonable, especially given that he's 31, but it seems like a smart risk to take in light of the possibility of massive production. Some ceilings are worth chasing even when it's a bit of a long shot.
WR Waddle is 3-for-3 on 1,000-yard seasons but coming off a disappointing 2023 in which he failed to gain any ground on Tyreek Hill in the target distribution. The odds of that happening increase with each passing year, and better injury luck alone would at least get Waddle back to WR2 fantasy range.
WR Addison's current draft price seems to assume both terrible QB play and a 2024 suspension. Both of those things are possibilities, not guarantees, so I'll happily "buy the dip" and bet on a first-round pick who had 900 yards and 10 TDs as a rookie.
WR Douglas may be a de facto No. 1 receiver more so than a true No. 1, but there was a lot to like about his rookie 2023 season if we can overlook the fact he was a sixth-round pick. He was targeted on 22.1 percent of routes and averaged 7.1 yards per target, hinting at potential for WR3 fantasy value if the Patriots offense improves toward competence with Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye under center. Douglas is perhaps my favorite pick relative to ADP this year.
WR Chris Olave
The Saints finally got rid of long-time offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, whose lack of aggression ultimately made him predictable. Klint Kubiak is somewhat of an unknown after working under play-calling head coach Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, but I'll eagerly take the unknown over Carmichael. Olave is a star in the making and can reasonably be drafted in the second round.
RB It's usually not a good sign when the main argument for a RB is lack of snap competition in a bad offense. In this case, however, there are a few factors working in Singletary's favor, including his track record of solid performance and an ADP well outside the Top 100. There's also some chance the Giants offense isn't that bad, as Brian Daboll put together a decent unit in 2022 before getting crushed by injuries in 2023. Malik Nabers should help everyone.
RB Breece Hall
A late surge left Hall as the second-highest-scoring RB in PPR leagues last year, with an unexpectedly huge number of targets allowing him to overcome a series of disasters. Now he's at full strength, rather than rehabbing an ACL tear, and the Jets bolstered their roster to provide some cushion in case their luck stinks again. They have a real backup QB now, Tyrod Taylor, and they completely remade the OT spot with one signing (Tyron Smith), one trade (Morgan Moses) and one draft pick (Olu Fashanu, 11th overall). That's how you go from fragile to resilient.
WR The Eagles likely will pass more on early downs under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who reportedly has Smith spending even more time in the slot than he did in previous seasons. That's excellent news for an undersized receiver who has largely feasted on zone coverage, potentially allowing him to gain some ground on A.J. Brown in the target distribution.
TE Freiermuth is a decent enough blocker to play a huge number of snaps under Arthur Smith, and the tight end likely will be Pittsburgh's No. 2 pass catcher if the Brandon Aiyuk trade talks go stale.
TE Kittle and Deebo Samuel will shoot up draft boards, and rightfully so, if the 49ers end up trading Aiyuk. Even without a trade, Kittle should be safe as a mid-range TE1, having proven that he can reach 1,000 yards (2023) or double-digit TDs (2022) without getting triple-digit targets. He's especially valuable relative to other tight ends in formats that don't award points for receptions.
WR DK Metcalf
Metcalf is a bit like Olave in that he seemed maxed out under his old coordinator, in part because the scheme was slow-placed and conservative and tended to depress play volume overall. It didn't help that Seattle's defense couldn't get off the field the past few years, which should change under new coach Mike Macdonald. Let's give Metcalf one last shot at a return to his 2020 numbers before giving up on him being more than a high-end WR3 in fantasy.
WR Reports out of training camp have McMillan not only working with the first-team offense but also regularly catching passes and making nice plays. He's not going to overtake Mike Evans or Chris Godwin in the pecking order, but the third-round pick could put up solid numbers if one of the vets ahead of him misses time.
QB Will Levis
Levis is a classic boom-bust pick, and at a low enough price where you can just cut him without much loss if he struggles for the first two or three weeks of the season. Do I truly believe in him? Nope. But, I do think he's in the right situation to put up big fantasy numbers if I'm wrong, as the Titans have a deep group of pass catchers and a new head coach (Brian Callahan) who previously worked with the pass-happy Bengals.
WR McLaurin is another high-quality real-life player who has been stuck in the same fantasy tier for a while but shouldn't be completely written off. He's got new faces surrounding him at head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback, finally escaping the messy Ron Rivera years in which loyalty and friendship seemed to be valued over performance.
