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Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
A Falcons team fighting to secure the NFC West faces a Commanders squad still battling for its best wild-card position in this Sunday night battle.
Let's dive into the latest odds plus bets and predictions for the prime-time showdown.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Falcons +172 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Commanders -180 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Falcons +4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Commanders -3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 46.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Over 46.5 points (Caesars Sportsbook)
The Commanders have remained favorites in this game all along, although their projected advantage has shrunk over the last several days. Washington was as high as a five-point favorite before Week 16 action. However, even after the Commanders' rousing 36-33 comeback win over the Eagles, the fact Michael Penix was able to lead Atlanta to victory and look competent doing so apparently moved the needle with bettors. The line moved to as low as 3.5 heading into the weekend.
The projected total was on the move as well, fluctuating between 46.5 and 48.5 points over the last week-plus. The high end of that range came early this week in the immediate aftermath of Week 16 play, while the low end was hit Friday. However, the number has intermittently bumped back to 47.0, and it might continue to nudge up leading up to kickoff.
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Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders Betting Picks
The Falcons took the Penix Plunge in Week 16. It was a gutsy move considering they ticketed the rookie for his first NFL start in the heart of their quest to win the NFC South. However, the timing of the move was equal parts necessary and savvy on the part of head coach Raheem Morris. Kirk Cousins forced his hand with his lackluster play and the Falcons were home against a very beatable opponent in the Giants.
Penix certainly didn't do anything to invalidate the decision as he threw for for 202 yards and completed 18 of 27 passes. With Bijan Robinson and the defense doing plenty of the heavy lifting, Penix had the luxury of only having to manage the game and avoid big mistakes. Penix did mostly that except for one interception, but the situation is a markedly different in Week 17.
Not only will the Falcons play in the harsh weather conditions of Landover, Maryland as opposed to the cozy environment of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but they will face a much more competent offense and defense. As Jayden Daniels demonstrated in the wild Week 16 comeback win over the Eagles, he has a virtually limitless ceiling and is capable of carrying a team on his shoulders when necessary. Daniels has clearly benefitted from a full season's worth of reps, something Penix has naturally not be in position to do as he heads into his second start.
Washington is helmed by a savvy defensive mind in that of Dan Quinn, who's succeeded in get ting his group on that side of the ball to steadily improve as the season has unfolded. This looks like a tailor-made situation for Quinn to exploit with a veteran group that includes Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn. They certainly have the ability to cross up the young quarterback.
The Falcons' defense could also have its fair share of trouble containing Daniels and his weapons, considering Atlanta allows 256.6 passing yards per game, 10.3 yards per completion and 5.9 yards per play on the road. As such, I'm rolling with a Commanders cover and the Over on Daniels' passing + rushing yard prop as a secondary bet.
- Commanders -3.5 (-112 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jayden Daniels Over 272.5 passing + rushing yards (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders Prediction
Commanders 26, Falcons 17
The Commanders are home and have the Falcons pretty much where they want them, namely, on the road in some questionable weather with a rookie QB making only his second start. Penix is talented and has some nice weapons, but I look for Quinn and his staff to put together an effective game plan that frustrates the young signal-caller. That will work as an ideal complement to what should be a strong offensive performance by Daniels and his side of the ball.
