Exploiting the Matchups: Week 6 Start/Sit and Streamers

Written by

Updated on October 13, 2022 2:18PM EST

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Geno Smith (vs. ARZ) — 47% started

Start Over — Matthew Stafford (vs. CAR), Russell Wilson (at LAC)

While Seattle's defensive struggles rightfully have gotten more attention, the Cardinals also enter Week 5 in the bottom 10 for fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (25th), NY/A (6.9, 26th) and pass-defense DVOA (27th). Smith, meanwhile, is in the midst of a shocking late-career breakout, leading the league in completion percentage (52.2), passer rating (113.2) and PFF grade (90.2), among other things. That won't hold up over the course of a full season, but we have enough of a sample now (five games, 186 dropbacks) to say he's at least a low-end starter, not the total scrub many had assumed (myself included). That's part of the reason Seahawks-Cardinals is one of two games on the Week 6 slate with an over/under north of 50, while the others check in below 46 (as of Thursday afternoon).

Other Good Matchups: Kyler Murray (at SEA), Tom Brady (at PIT), Kirk Cousins (at MIA), Justin Fields (vs. WAS)

Running Backs 👍

Devin Singletary (at KC) — 54% started

Start Over — James Robinson (at IND), J.K. Dobbins (at NYG)

The Chiefs had done well against the run this year until Josh Jacobs tagged them for 154 yards Monday night, with the Las Vegas offensive line consistently knocking KC's D-line off the ball. Maybe the Bills see that and run a bit more than usual this week, but even if they don't, Singletary should be active as a pass catcher against a Chiefs defense that's given up 49 receptions to RBs, 13 more than any other team.

There's also the possibility of Singletary playing more snaps than usual, as was the case a couple weeks back when he handled a season-high 88 percent in the three-point win over Baltimore. His two best fantasy performances (and his largest snap shares) have come in Buffalo's two close contests, not the three blowout wins. When the Bills win comfortably, we've seen Singletary drop to 54-59 percent of snaps and no more than 10 touches while sharing more work with Zack Moss and James Cook.

Eno Benjamin (at SEA) — 26% started

Start Over — TBD

Benjamin should get a massive workload against one of the worst defenses in the league if James Conner (rib) doesn't end up playing. And even if Conner plays, it could be in a more limited fashion and Benjamin wouldn't have to contend with Darrel Williams (knee) for playing time off the bench. It doesn't hurt that Benjamin has done well with his chances this year, averaging 4.5 YPC on 30 carries and 8.1 YPR on 12 catches in an offense that has mostly struggled. Also note that Arizona RBs have combined for 41 targets this season, 8.2 per game (ninth most).

Other Good Matchups: Rhamondre Stevenson (at CLE), Kenneth Walker (vs. ARZ), Cam Akers (vs. CAR), Brian Robinson (at CHI)

Wide Receivers 👍

Adam Thielen (at MIN) — 60% started

Start Over — Christian Kirk (at IND), Jerry Jeudy (at LAC), DJ Moore (at LAR)

The Dolphins are dead last in pass-defense DVOA and 25 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, struggling mightily in coverage despite devoting a ton of resources to cornerbacks. Top cover man Xavien Howard has been in and out of the lineup with a groin injury, looking less than his best when available, while No. 2 corner Byron Jones (ankle) remains on the PUP list with no signs of an impending return. The healthy options on the roster right now are two undrafted young players (Kader Kohou, Nik Needham), one first-round bust (Noah Igbinoghene) and two special teams guys (Justin Bethel, Keion Crossen). It's a good matchup for both Thielen and Justin Jefferson, even if Howard suits up this week.

Rondale Moore (at SEA) — 20% started

Start Over — Isaiah McKenzie (at KC), George Pickens (vs. TB), Garrett Wilson (at GB)

Moore has taken on 88 percent snap share, 13 targets and three carries in two games this year, and now he'll face a defense that can't cover, tackle, stop the run or rush the passer. It's a far cry from the Eagles defense he caught seven passes against last week, and there's the possibility of extra rush attempts with the Cardinals banged up in the backfield. We've also seen some early potential for Moore to get more than shovel passes, screens and jet sweeps, with three of his 13 targets (23.1 percent) coming 10-plus yards downfield, an improvement from eight of 70 (11.4 percent) last season, per PFF. The percentage behind the line of scrimmage has dropped as well, from 58.6 percent to 38.5.

Other Good Matchups: DK Metcalf + Tyler Lockett (vs. ARI), Gabe Davis (at KC), Darnell Mooney (vs. WAS)

Tight Ends 👍

Gerald Everett (vs. DEN) — 52% started

Start Over — Taysom Hill (vs. CIN), Pat Freiermuth (vs. TB)

It looks like another week without Keenan Allen (hamstring), while Mike Williams faces the likelihood of shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain. That's not to say Williams should be benched, given his talent and workload, but it does suggest the Chargers could lean on their other weapons more than usual, namely Everett, RB Austin Ekeler and perhaps WRs Joshua Palmer and DeAndre Carter. Ekeler and Everett have been the most reliable of that group, and the TE's average of 5.9 targets suggests he'll bounce back from the one-catch dud in Cleveland last week.

Other Good Matchups: George Kittle (at ATL), Zach Ertz (at SEA)

Sit/Downgrade

Quarterbacks 👎

Russell Wilson — 43% started

Start Instead — Kirk Cousins (at MIA), Aaron Rodgers (vs. NYJ), Matthew Stafford (vs. CAR)

The toughest matchups this week belong to QBs we're never benching (e.g. Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert) or else QBs we're only starting in case of an emergency (see below). Wilson is the guy in the middle who worries me most, though the defense he faces this week has been mediocre overall. Apart from Joey Bosa (groin), the Chargers have gotten healthier on that side of the ball, while Wilson is now reported to be playing through a partially torn lat in his right shoulder. There's also the fact that he simply hasn't been good this year, nor has coach Nathaniel Hackett or the Denver offense as a whole. Look for Team Staley to get the best of Team Hackett in this once-in-a-lifetime clash of coaching genius.

Other Tough Matchups: Cooper Rush (at PHI), Marcus Mariota (vs. SF)

Running Backs 👎

Clyde Edwards-Helaire — 70% started

Start Instead — David Montgomery (vs. WAS), Melvin Gordon (at LAC)

Edwards-Helaire got by on superhuman efficiency through three weeks, averaging 77 total yards and a TD per game on only 11.3 touches and 39-to-44 percent snap share. He then broke through in Week 4, seemingly, finishing with 56 percent snap share and 20 touches for 94 yards and a pair of TDs against a stellar Tampa defense. Unfortunately, it was back to the old workload last week, and for the first time all year Edwards-Helaire didn't have a TD or 50-yard play to make up for the lack of volume; he managed only 35 yards on 12 touches against Vegas, playing 43 percent of snaps to Jerick McKinnon's 53 percent. The point being that we still can't trust Edwards-Helaire's workload, and his efficiency projection takes a dip this week against a Buffalo squad ranked eighth in fantasy points allowed to RBs, third in YPC (3.5) and third in run-defense DVOA. (I'm glad I only have CEH in best ball leagues this year).

Raheem Mostert — 51% started

Start Instead — Cam Akers (vs. CAR), Kareem Hunt (vs. NE)

This isn't so much of a "bad" matchup as a warning to proceed with caution. The Dolphins presumably will want to run the ball this week, starting a second/third-string quarterback against a Minnesota defense ranked 23rd in DVOA against the run and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The issue is following through on that intention, as Skylar Thompson's presence under center would create the threat of a second straight blowout loss, after the rookie completed only 57.6 percent of his passes for 5.0 YPA against the Jets last week.

Even if Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) is cleared, the Dolphins have two other injury obstacles to a successful running game — Mostert missed Wednesday's practice with a knee injury, while blocking TE Durham Smythe was out with a hamstring injury. The Vikings defense, meanwhile, has just one starter listed on the Week 6 injury report, OLB Za'Darius Smith, and he was healthy enough for a limited practice to start the week.

Other Tough Matchups: Najee Harris (vs. TB), Miles Sanders (vs. PHI), Tyler Allgeier (vs. SF)

Wide Receivers 👎

Christian Kirk (at IND) — 67% started

Start Instead — Chris Godwin (at PIT), Tyler Lockett (vs. ARI), DeVonta Smith (vs. DAL)

Kirk went off for 6-78-2 in a Week 2 blowout win over the Colts, but there are a number of reasons to think the rematch will look different, especially after Jacksonville's offense tanked the past two weeks. Even if Trevor Lawrence isn't nearly as bad in this one, Kirk will spend much of the afternoon lined up across from veteran slot corner Kenny Moore, who started the year slow but has now allowed just 20 yards on eight targets the past two weeks (per PFF).

Fun fact: Zay Jones is averaging 8.0 targets per game, slightly more than Kirk's 7.8.

DJ Moore — 41% started

Start Instead — Diontae Johnson (vs. TB), JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. BUF)

I understand the cause for optimism here, with Moore's team context having gotten so bad that any change whatsoever (e.g. new coach, new QB) can be viewed as a good thing. On top of that, he's facing a defense that's allowed the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers, and coming off his two best games of the year in terms of target volume. The problem? It's still an awful environment for offensive production, playing with a third-string QB on the road against a defense that's still been pretty good overall (10th in DVOA, 11th in yardage). P.J. Walker might be better for Moore than Baker Mayfield (ankle), but probably not by much, and probably not in this matchup. Carolina's implied total of 15.75 is easily the worst of Week 6, two points behind Pittsburgh and Dallas (17.75) as of Thursday afternoon.

Other Tough Matchups: Mike Williams (vs. DEN), Drake London (vs. SF), Chris Olave (vs. CIN), Garrett Wilson (at GB)

Tight Ends 👎

Tyler Conklin (at GB) — 29% started

Start Instead — Evan Engram (at IND), Robert Tonyan (vs. NYJ)

This is less about Green Bay allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends and more about Conklin dropping to 68 percent snap share last week (with only one target) while C.J. Uzomah climbed to 69 percent. Conklin won the top spot this summer and got another boost from Uzomah's early season hamstring pull, but Conklin let the big opportunity slip right through his unreliable hands with three drops and two fumbles over the first four weeks of the season. Now he's in a timeshare, seemingly, and facing a solid defense.

Other Tough Matchups: Kyle Pitts (vs. SF), Dalton Schultz (at PHI)