Dynasty Strategy: Rookie RB Comparisons Pt. 2

This article series intends to cut through the noise of the broader prospect analysis that generally circulates through fantasy football internet media, specifically at the running back position. 

More than any other, running back is one position where the evaluation is simple. Production and athletic testing win out, reliably. By focusing on production and standout athleticism you can quickly discern the general functions of a running back and the general effect they bring to the field. 

This series will look only at the 2024 rookie running backs, highlighting the pertinent details in their prospect profiles and offering comparisons for how their NFL careers might unfold based on how things turned out for similar players in the past. This article will look at Blake Corum and MarShawn Lloyd. The previous article (here) addressed Jonathon Brooks and Trey Benson. The next will break down Jaylen Wright and Ray Davis.

Blake Corum, LAR (Round 3, 83rd overall)

Corum was a high-volume, high-efficiency producer at Michigan, where he ran for 3,737 yards (5.5 YPC) and 58 touchdowns. Corum was more dominant of a rusher yet than it might appear at a glance – his touchdown rate of 8.6 percent is a sky-high figure, and a touchdown frequency like that is a clear downward pressure on the yards-per-carry average. In other words, Corum would have likely averaged well over 6.0 yards per carry if he hadn't scored at a nation-leading frequency. Corum's production at Michigan was much better than recent Wolverine runners like Hassan Haskins, Karan Higdon, Chris Evans, etc.

Size and speed will never be in Corum's favor, but he showed the ability to withstand mammoth workloads at Michigan and is capable of executing any run concept. Some small running backs are unable or uninterested in running between the tackles, but that's where Corum specifically thrives.

[Skill set]
Corum's rushing ability between the tackles is beyond questioning. The results speak for themselves, and the offensive line is not an explanation for the degree to which Corum dominated. Corum outproduced former teammate Hassan Haskins when they were on the same team, and 2023 teammate Donovan Edwards was much less efficient than Corum despite taking on less than half of the carry volume.

For a running back to project for usage volume it's not just a matter of being physically able to withstand the beating – the player has to be able to earn the reps in the first place, too. If a running back can withstand 300 carries but can only earn carries on draws and tosses, he will never get the opportunity to show how much of a beating he can take. With Corum it's fair to worry about withstanding the beating at 205 pounds, but a big reason he took so much usage at Michigan is that Corum excels on almost any play design. Corum will always come to mind whenever a coach asks, 'Which running back should I use?' on a given play.

Corum didn't do much pass-catching at Michigan between his extremely heavy rushing workload and Michigan's extremely run-heavy offense, but there's reason to believe Corum would thrive as a pass catcher, too. Corum turned 71 career targets into 56 receptions for 411 yards and three touchdowns (78.9 percent catch rate, 5.8 YPT), and on film Corum appears comfortable at catching and running. In short, Corum's skill set appears very strong.

[Tool set]
Although Corum's skill set might be elite or close to it, his tool set grade is much more modest. At 5-foot-8, 205 pounds Corum is both short and small, and his 4.53-second 40-yard dash is not quite as fast as you'd like for a player his weight. Density-adjusted speed is probably the most high-impact athletic metric variable at running back, especially for gauging pure rushing ability, and Corum's grade is slightly below average.

Density-adjusted speed isn't the only athletic variable to consider, however, and Corum bolsters his case by demonstrating plus quickness (6.82-second three-cone drill). A running back would ideally have standout strength or/and long-range speed to leverage the defense into respecting the big-play threat, but if a running back lacks both things (as Corum does) then they can offset the deficiency with plus short-area burst and change of direction. Corum grades very well in those regards, which provides assurance against his otherwise unimpressive power/speed combo.

An interesting recent case study for Corum might be Jaylen Warren, who checked in at 5-foot-8, 204 pounds at the combine and logged a 4.55-second 40. Corum probably doesn't run with as much anchor as Warren, but Corum is a tick faster and quicker. Like Corum, Warren was a college rushing workhorse, but with Pittsburgh Warren has rebranded as an off-the-bench pass-catching back. There's reason to think that Corum can similarly reallocate his resources to the passing game if necessary.

[Bottom line]
Corum is not a powerful or fast runner, but his coordination, balance and quickness pair with fast processing to make him adept at negotiating between the tackles. If there's space, Corum will find it an exploit it about as reliably as anyone. As he showed at Michigan, Corum is able to withstand heavy workloads, and likely including as a pass catcher.

Kyren Williams had a lot of success in 2023, almost entirely due to system reasons. Corum is largely the same player as Williams, just bigger and faster. If Williams can do something then so can Corum. It's not complicated.

What's complicated is trying to anticipate the thoughts of Sean McVay, who has had a weird relationship with running backs in the NFL. Just because Corum can do anything Williams can doesn't mean McVay will give Corum the chance to prove as much. Just the same, there's no way to rule out McVay considering a rotation between Corum and Williams, if only to extend the durability of both players. If McVay refuses to rotate Corum and Williams then history says injury will eventually make the choice for McVay – Williams already has a broken foot, two severe high-ankle sprains and a second, separate foot issue pop up this offseason. Once Corum has his foot in the door he will likely outplay Williams at least occasionally and should apply increasing pressure on Williams as times passes.

BEST-CASE COMPARISON: Ray Rice (slower). Rice (4.42-second 40) was a couple steps faster than Corum and had even crazier production at Rutgers than Corum did at Michigan, but Corum might be like Rice insofar as being a high-volume dual-threat producer from scrimmage despite a uniquely short and light frame.

LIKELY COMPARISON: Jaylen Warren. Corum doesn't seem to run with the same anchor or pop that Warren does, but their frames at testing time were basically the same and Corum was a magnitude better across the board. Like Warren, Corum can likely rebrand from a high-volume college rusher to a standout pass-catching back off the bench in the NFL.

MarShawn Lloyd, GB (Round 3, 88th overall)

Lloyd played 32 collegiate games – 21 at South Carolina and 11 at USC – accumulating 291 carries for 1,621 yards (5.6 YPC) and 19 touchdowns. That's a touchdown rate of 6.5 percent, which is healthy enough to argue that Lloyd's 'Real' rushing average was closer to 6.0 yards.

Lloyd left South Carolina for USC after three seasons, making for a somewhat bitter end given that Lloyd was a prized five-star recruit for South Carolina. Injuries and fumbles played a role in the outcome – Lloyd actually missed his first collegiate season due to an ACL tear, and in his third season he missed extended time with a quadriceps injury.

Upon arriving to USC the Trojans utilized the former five-star back as a rotational player, using Stanford transfer Austin Jones (undrafted in 2024) as the team's main passing-down back while Lloyd functioned as the main runner.

[Skill set]
Lloyd struggled to earn passing down snaps at USC, regularly rotating out for Jones, but if Lloyd has a passing-down concern it would seem to primarily pertain to pass blocking. Even though Lloyd would tend to leave the field in passing situations, he still managed to draw more targets (21) than Jones (17), and it's easy to see why Lloyd's power + speed combo could be dangerous on a well-designed target. Lloyd's career catch percentage was rather poor (61.8 percent), however, and so easily losing playing time to an undrafted prospect like Jones can't be the greatest sign.

As a pure runner the theme is largely the same as the pass catching – Lloyd's rare combination of motor, density and speed makes him a constant big-play threat, but sometimes his rhythm doesn't cooperate and things sort of just go off the rails. For someone as toolsy as he is, Lloyd should have been even more productive yet, but his career rushing numbers are still more clearly good than his career receiving numbers.

It might be burying the headline to wait this long to point out the fumbling issue, but Lloyd fumbled 11 times on just 325 career touches, and he largely lost the game for USC by fumbling against Utah. USC Coach Lincoln Riley said afterward that USC abandoned the run due to Lloyd's fumbling, implying that forfeiting the run had compounded the setback for the USC offense. Lloyd needs to cut his fumbling down drastically or it won't matter how explosive he might be from scrimmage.

[Tool set]
At 5-foot-9, 220 pounds Lloyd has a dense frame that lends well to anchor, but he has the quick feet and long speed (4.46-second 40-yard dash) to elude and outrun defenders. Lloyd's injury history might limit his volume upside, but he should run with consistent standout power, amplifying the big-play threat posed by his speed. Lloyd's standout collegiate rushing efficiency was mostly owed to that speed/power combo, so any concerns in his prospect profile would more so come from his skill set.

[Bottom line]
Lloyd's power and speed combo grades at a uniquely high level, and with that he poses a major threat from scrimmage on any given play. Although he could also improve his vision and pacing as a runner, his bigger problems have to do with pass blocking and ball security. Lloyd's explosiveness might be enough to earn him a role as a productive rushing specialist even if he never earns reps on passing downs, maybe something like a short Gus Edwards, but if the fumbling doesn't stop then Lloyd will mostly be a healthy scratch. AJ Dillon and Emmanuel Wilson aren't complete pushovers, so Lloyd needs to do more than just show up if he's going to push either of those two for reps, let alone Josh Jacobs.

BEST-CASE COMPARISON: Doug Martin. Martin is probably the best example of a running back under 5-foot-10 and over 220 pounds with legitimate big-play ability, and Lloyd certainly checks those boxes. If Lloyd shows the ability to run with better vision, pacing and ball security then he could harness his otherwise rare athletic traits to pose a major threat from scrimmage.

LIKELY COMPARISON: Michael Pittman Sr. I initially listed Delone Carter here but decided to try to be more optimistic and switch to Pittman. Their frames are totally different -- Pittman was listed at 6-feet, 218 pounds -- but their usage themes might turn out similarly. Pittman was only a rotational runner and had fumble troubles but was a standout pass-catching back, providing a few noteworthy seasons.