This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week was a mixed bag of results here. My favorite wager of the week, Jameis Winston over .5 interceptions easily hit and most of the highlighted play went around 40-50 percent. In this space don't take everything that's written as Gospel, rather see if it matches up with the wagers you like or are thinking about taking.
Games
Los Angeles Rams +1.5 - I'd guess the public is going to be all over the Buccaneers given their start and that they are the reigning champions. However, the Rams have an excellent defense and the offense has been clicking with Matthew Stafford under center (5:1 TD:INT, 10.7 YPA). I like the fact that Tamps has to travel across the country and play the Rams in their new home Stadium which should contain a lively crowd. Look for the Rams defense to be the difference here as they finally slow Tom Brady and Co. down for at least one game.
Chicago Bears +7 - I think we all learned last week that the Browns probably shouldn't be favored by at touchdown or more, at least not yet. I'll gamble here that Justin Fields will make an immediate impact and that the Bears will somewhat slow down the Browns running game. Through two games the Bears have only allowed 153 rushing yards, the fifth-best mark in football. Look for Allen Robinson and David Montgomery to contribute heavily on the offensive side of the ball.
New York Giants -3 - This is setting up nicely for the Giants to get their first win of the season. The Falcons are arguably the worst team in the league and have struggled on both sides of the ball. The Giants offense has actually been decent and Saquon Barkley should continue to see his touches grow (11 Week 1, 15 Week 2). Daniel Jones has actually been decent and is throwing to what has probably been his healthiest and most talented group of wide receivers.
Player Props
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 32.5 receiving yards - I know this sounds a bit crazy given the fact that Aiyuk has one catch for six yards over his first two games. However, hear me out as there is a few trends working in his favor. The most important trend is he went from playing 30 to 54 percent of the snaps from Week 1 to Week 2. If there was an injury here, he's another week removed from it and should be healthier than he's been in either of the first two games. He also has the privilege of playing opposite of Deebo Samuel meaning he'll see softer coverage. This number also seems too high if you didn't know what it was which makes me think the book sees him having a strong game. I don't mind his touchdowns odds (+190) either.
Lamar Jackson OVER 292.5 Passing + Rushing Yards - This is one of those lines that doesn't make any sense given what Jackson's done so far and that he's facing the lowly Detroit Lions. Lamar has gone over this mark in each of his first two games with totals of 321 and 346 yards. It's tough to see the Lions slowing Jackson down and the only reason I can think of that the number is set this way is because Jackson was sick this week (non-COVID) but was able to log a full practice Friday.
Calvin Ridley OVER 81.5 Receiving Yards - Ridley hasn't hit the over in either of his first two games here but gets a Giants defense that was just torched by Terry McLaurin and Taylor Heinicke. Ridley has seen a solid number of targets thus far (18) and there should be some positive regression for his Yards per target (6.3 this season) stat. Looking at last season, Ridley averaged 91.6 yards per game receiving
Player Touchdowns
Keenan Allen +190 - Allen has yet to find the end zone this season but Sunday looks like a great opportunity to change that. The over/under for the Chargers/Chiefs is set at 54.5 suggesting a shootout and teammate Mike Williams has developed into a solid 1B option taking some coverage away from Allen. Keenan scored in eight out of 14 games last season (57 percent) making the +190 odds look nice if he keeps close to that numbers this season.
James Washington +250 - There are two different ways I thought about approaching the Steelers wide receivers this week. I was either going to suggest taking both Chase Claypool (+165) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (+150) and you can turn a profit if either hits, or really be good if they both do. Ultimately I decided to just go with James Washington who will fill the third receiver role this week with Dionte Johnson out. In a limited role last season Washington was still able to score five times in 16 games and I would look at his over for receiving yards (34.5) as well.
KJ Hamler First Half +550 + Second Half +550 - This may look a bit confusing so let me explain. As of the time writing this there were no odds for scoring a touchdown for the entire game. Instead, (using my Euclid-like math skills) you can take Hamler scoring in the first half and second half at +550 making your entire game odds +275. The absence of Jerry Jeudy helped Hamler the most looking at snap count as his percentage went from 36 Week 1 to 71 last week. Hamler is the Broncos best deep threat and I'd look at the over for his longest reception as well (15.5 yards).
